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nyr2k2 02-10-2011 06:18 PM

Official 2011 MLB Thread (All Mets, Yankees and MLB talk here)
 
Spring Training is right around the corner (4 days for the Yanks, 6 for the Mets), so it seems like time for our annual MLB Thread.

I think a good way to get started is to predict the rosters for your team heading into ST. Obviously early and anything can happen, but still fun to speculate.

2011 New York Mets
C: Josh Thole
1B: Ike Davis
2B: Brad Emaus
SS: Jose Reyes
3B: David Wright
LF: Jason Bay
CF: Angel Pagan
RF: Carlos Beltran

SP: Mike Pelfrey
SP: John Niese
SP: Chris Young
SP: RA Dickey
SP: Dillon Gee

RP: Pedro Beato
RP: Chris Capuano
RP: Manny Acosta
RP: Pat Misch
RP: Bobby Parnell
RP: DJ Carrasco
CP: Francisco Rodriguez

Bench: Ronny Paulino
Bench: Daniel Murphy
Bench: Nick Evans
Bench: Chin-lung Hu
Bench: Willie Harris

Lineup:
1. Reyes
2. Pagan
3. Wright
4. Beltran
5. Bay
6. Davis
7. Thole
8. Emaus

If this team stays healthy, and Bay has a reasonable bounce-back season (.270, 25HR), then I think the team could potentially contend for a Wild Card. I don't expect them to, but I don't think it's entirely outside the realm of possibility.

I'm hoping that Beltran enjoys a resurgence and proves that he is healthy. He posted a .968 OPS in September, so I'm optimistic. If he proves he still has value, I'd like to see him moved at or before the deadline. I think the Mets are in a position similar to our Rangers, in that they seek to remain competitive while also retooling and building towards a brighter future. A healthy and productive Beltran, even as an impending UFA, could provide for a pretty decent return of young players. I see very little chance that he re-signs with the club if he isn't dealt, so I think it's a foregone conclusion assuming he's more or less healthy.

Jose Reyes is also a huge question mark as well. A good season from him makes him a very valuable commodity--a SS that's relatively young, can hit, can run and can field. It also drives up his price after the season is over. The Mets will have plenty of money coming off the books for 2012 (Castillo, Perez, possibly Rodriguez), so money won't be an issue...but do you commit money and years to a player as inconsistent as Jose Reyes? I'm not entirely sure how I feel about him at this point. I suppose we'll figure it out as the season unfolds. Pretty much what Sandy Alderson said.

The success of our season will likely be measured in the development of our younger players. Ike Davis, Josh Thole, Jon Niese and Bobby Parnell all showed flashes of above-average talent last season. Will they continue to develop? I'm hopeful Davis develops into a guy that can post an OPS around .850 while playing excellent defense, and that Thole turns into a left-handed Paul LoDuca (minus the steroids). Jon Niese has shown me that he's eminently capable of becoming an anchor in the middle of the rotation--just needs to continue to build arm strength to avoid fading down the stretch.

Some of the other young players also should have an impact on this iteration of the club. Mejia is electric, though I'd like to see him continue to develop consistent secondary pitches and hone his fastball location. He's a potential ace in the waiting. Lucas Duda, two years after completely rebuilding his swing, showed amazing power at AAA and settled in nicely towards the end of his MLB season. Hopefully the club will allow him to continue to develop down at AAA, absorbing at bats and refining his eye. Reese Havens could have an impact with his advanced bat, assuming he can stay healthy (which he has yet to be able to do). Brad Emaus I have penciled in as the starting 2B, based mainly off comments from the front office and his reputation as a "Money Ball"-type player that our new regime values highly.

Johan Santana, to me, is almost like Gaborik--a guy that if he is on and if he is healthy, makes the team much more competitive...however, can he be counted on? He's obviously going to be back for as good chunk of the season, as his rehab is apparently going very well, but I'm not planning on serious contributions from him. If they come, awesome, but I'm not terribly optimistic.

My optimistic prediction for the 2011 New York Mets: 86-76, third in NL East.

TrollololBoyle 02-10-2011 06:22 PM

****ing finally!!!!!!!

Sorry hockey, you're going to have take the back seat for the next few months!!!!!

BASEBALLLLL!

Vitto79 02-10-2011 06:23 PM

Love the Mets but this is going to be a tough yr. They need the crap contracts off the books and the ownership situaton does not seem good. Please release Perez and Castillo off the bat

nyr2k2 02-10-2011 06:26 PM

I can't see any scenario where Luis Castillo is on the team. Alderson said outright that he's either the starting second baseman or he's not on the team, since his fielding is sub-par and his speed has severely diminished. To say nothing of his nonexistent bat.

Perez I could potentially see making the team as a bullpen arm, though I doubt it. The guy was awful in winter ball, why should we expect him to turn it around and force his way onto the roster this spring?

I'd bet money on both of them being released by the end of ST.

Groot 02-10-2011 06:36 PM

Yankees:

C: Russell Martin/Jesus Montero
1B: Mark Teixeira
2B: Robinson Cano
3B:Alex Rodriguez
SS: Derek Jeter
LF: Brett Gardner
CF: Curtis Granderson
RF: Nick Swisher
DH: Jorge Posada/Montero

SP: CC Sabathia
SP: Phil Hughes
SP: AJ Burnett
SP: Freddy Garcia
SP: Ivan Nova


RP: Damaso Marte
RP: Joba Chamberlain
RP: Sergio Mitre
RP: Boone Logan
RP: Rafael Soriano
CP: Mariano Rivera

Opening Day Lineup

1. Derek Jeter SS
2. Nick Swisher RF
3. Mark Teixeira 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez 3B
5. Robinson Cano 2B
6.Russell Martin C
7. Curtis Granderson CF
8. Jorge Posada DH
9. Brett Gardner LF

SP: CC Sabathia



We didn't make that big of a splash in free agency, but assuming Teixiera has a bounce back year, and Phil Hughes continues to impress, I feel we have a good chance to make a run. I don't see us winning the division though, Red Sox are TOO good this year but I think we get the Wild Card with the Rays out of the question.


Prediction: 95-67 AL Wild Card, ALCS

nyrleetch 02-10-2011 06:38 PM

We lost Aceves :(

nyr2k2 02-10-2011 06:40 PM

Yup, Aceves signed in Boston of all places.

Swept In Seven 02-10-2011 06:41 PM

Mets are going to be brutal this year and the Yankees will not win the al east

nyr2k2 02-10-2011 06:55 PM

I don't know if the Mets will be brutal. They have more or less the same roster as last season when they won 79 games. The Santana injury obviously hurts, but 3/4 of the roster was injured for significant time last season too. If they remain more healthy than last season, they'll field a competitive club.

Now, Philadelphia is obviously absurdly talented and the Braves should win 90 games easily. It's going to be tough for the Mets. They should be okay though.

nyrleetch 02-10-2011 06:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AJBergy86 (Post 30810675)
Mets are going to be brutal this year and the Yankees will not win the al east

Redsoxs SP = Very Overrated.

nyr2k2 02-10-2011 07:06 PM

Buchholz: 2.33 ERA and 1.20 WHIP
Lester: 3.25 ERA and 1.20 WHIP

Those guys are terrific. If Josh Beckett is healthy, and Jon Lackey has a normal Jon Lackey season, they'll have a great rotation. Matsuzaka is a wild card, a guy who could potentially be great or could just be a decent #5.

NYRFAN218 02-10-2011 07:25 PM

The Mets roster isn't bad by any stretch of the imagination. Solid lineup and a decent bench. Bullpen is a question mark and so is the rotation though I think the rotation will be solid barring injuries.

I've set my prediction at the team finishing around 500 and falling out of the wild card race in late August, early September. I could definitely see them having a good year though and being in contention all the way until the end. I've already written this year off as a rebuilding and transition year until 2012 when all the contracts are gone so any success that happens is just a bonus.

Wraparounds 02-10-2011 07:26 PM

I predict absolutely nothing different this year for the Mets.

Florida Ranger 02-10-2011 07:27 PM

Let's go Rays!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I just hope they can play at least .500 baseball this season.

BJ bUmPTON needs to play to his potential. Man Ram and Damon need to play for a $15 million contract for next season, and the bullpen needs to become magical again.

ECL 02-10-2011 07:29 PM

I have a feeling Gee is sent down for more seasoning.

ECL 02-10-2011 07:29 PM

Also, if Reyes and Bay come back this year, this team will be in the playoffs.

ECL 02-10-2011 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nyr2k2 (Post 30810121)
I can't see any scenario where Luis Castillo is on the team. Alderson said outright that he's either the starting second baseman or he's not on the team, since his fielding is sub-par and his speed has severely diminished. To say nothing of his nonexistent bat.

I will almost miss Slappy.

Almost.

Blatant 02-10-2011 07:39 PM

I just have a weird feeling the Mets are gonna surprise some people this year. They will be in the Wild card hunt come late august.

NYRFAN218 02-10-2011 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NYRfan1823 (Post 30812855)
I just have a weird feeling the Mets are gonna surprise some people this year. They will be in the Wild card hunt come late august.

I'd be disappointed if they aren't. This team has more talent than people give em credit for. Again, they'll drop out around that point or early September but it would not shock me at all to see them in it until the end.

17futurecap 02-10-2011 08:53 PM

Yanks roster up above needs to be edited, Marte is probably hurt for the year, and they signed Feliciano to be the other lefty in the pen with Logan.

Machinehead 02-10-2011 08:54 PM

Is it time already for the real team to come back? The Yankees sure are refreshing after what I go through all winter.

Blatant 02-10-2011 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NYRFAN218 (Post 30816529)
I'd be disappointed if they aren't. This team has more talent than people give em credit for. Again, they'll drop out around that point or early September but it would not shock me at all to see them in it until the end.

If they can get the pitching to be decent, they should be allright. They have a lot of ?'s with Bay, Beltran, Thole, 2nd base, Reyes... and even Johan and when he can come back.

I hope they can win and stay above .500

nyr2k2 02-10-2011 09:05 PM

Well, last season Bay sucked and got hurt, Beltran barely played, Thole was still Thole (and should be at least as good as Blanco/Barajas), 2nd base still sucked ass, Reyes was mediocre and banged up, Johan missed a month and a half...and they almost played .500 ball.

Basically, pretty much everything imaginable went wrong for them last year and they still weren't awful. If only a few guys turn it around or stay healthy, I think they'll be a bit better.

darko 02-10-2011 09:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nyr2k2 (Post 30811437)
Buchholz: 2.33 ERA and 1.20 WHIP
Lester: 3.25 ERA and 1.20 WHIP

Those guys are terrific. If Josh Beckett is healthy, and Jon Lackey has a normal Jon Lackey season, they'll have a great rotation. Matsuzaka is a wild card, a guy who could potentially be great or could just be a decent #5.


.261 BABIP suggests he was somewhat lucky last year. His xFIP is nearly 2 full runs higher (4.20) meaning those numbers will come back to earth. I expect ERA between 3.25 - 3.50 for Buchh.

Lester is crazy good. I'm a die hard Yanks fan but I'd take Lester over CC. In fact with Cliff Lee now residing in NL there is only 1 pitcher in AL I'd take over Lester. That happens to be that Hernandez fellow in Seattle.

Just like Yankees though Sox have question marks after their top-2. Their question marks are not as bad as Yankees' but they are still there. Beckett needs to stay healthy. Dice K (or Dice BB as some call him) cant keep batters off the bases. He's horrible. Lackey had his worst season since his 1st full season in majors. Guy is average at best and has been on steady decline since 2007. That contract is bad. Not AJ Burnett type bad but still pretty bad.


Also 2 other things: catcher and a lefty in the pen. Varitek is horrible defensively and Salty isn't much better. Opposing teams will have field days running the bases when Varitek is behind the plate. Some question Salty's game calling so that could be an issue too. His biggest asset is his offense. You need a dominant lefty out of the pen, especially in AL East. Rays have McGee and Howell. Yankees have Boone and also signed Feliciano. Red Sox have Hideki Okajima, he is no longer dominant though.

This should be a 3-horse race for the division title. Dont sleep on Rays, everyone but Carl Crawford is replacable on that team. Brignac replaces Bartlett, Dan Johnson should replace Pena's production and Soriano wont be missed. Jake McGee looks like the next dominant closer to me. I like him alot. Red Sox should be favorites based on their offseason but IMO this is a 3-horse race.

nyr2k2 02-10-2011 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 17futurecap (Post 30816597)
Yanks roster up above needs to be edited, Marte is probably hurt for the year, and they signed Feliciano to be the other lefty in the pen with Logan.

Yeah, I thought it would be fun to guess the roster, but I neglected to realize that the Yankees have far less uncertainty than do the Mets. Seems like your 25-man is pretty much set in stone, right?


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