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-   -   Speculation: Value of #1 Pick (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=885447)

Fred Glover 03-02-2011 09:16 PM

Value of #1 Pick
 
Seeing as GMSH needs to remake the blue line this off season, I was wondering if in the process, he would consider trading the #1 pick in the draft. For the sake of argument, let's speculate that our pick would fall somewhere in the middle of the first round. The question then is, if we were to trade that pick what player (defense) might we expect in return? There is a bit of history here in that Howson traded the 19th pick and got Umby. What might we expect this year IF it were to happen?

Pata93 03-02-2011 09:30 PM

A 12-20 overall pick would get us an established #4 D at best me think.

CBJSprague24 03-02-2011 10:15 PM

The only thing that stands out in my mind is that the CBJ had two firsts the year GMSH traded for Umby. The #6 overall was rumored to be in play but didn't end up being moved, while the Flyers took the 19 for Umberger.

Whether or not GMSH would move the first in a year where he only has one would remain to be seen.

Gagnefan924 03-02-2011 10:21 PM

Rather keep it. Murphy, Puempel, Rattie, Beaulieu all could be available where we are picking. They are all players we could really use and shouldnt pass up that opportunity. Lets see Murphy = Erik Karlsson. Matt Puempel = Rick Nash lite. Ty Rattie = Joe Pavelski. Nathan Beaulieu = poor man's Brent Burns.

Crede777 03-02-2011 10:38 PM

The value of the 1st pick by itself is low. We'd be better off keeping it and drafting someone as opposed to trading it straight up.

Its utility, in my opinion, comes mostly in the ability to incorporate it into a package.

MephistoIV 03-02-2011 10:40 PM

1st + Filatov.

Lolz

KallioWeHardlyKnewYe 03-03-2011 11:08 AM

I don't know what the trade market will be for D men (or centers?) this summer, but if there is an upgrade to be made on the current roster and it can be done at the expense of a mid-range 1st (alone or in a package). Do it.

In the words of Dave, "Don't even ask. Just bring it."

To me, worst case scenario is to use the pick. That's not a bad downside, but frankly, I care more about what I'll see on ice next year than I do about another 18-19 year old that's 2, 3, 4 years away from contributing.

If its in the top 10, my thinking would change somewhat. Beyond the top 10 -- trade that sucker.

Gagnefan924 03-03-2011 11:36 AM

I think Howson might trade the pick to move up. Or atleast I hope. My thinking is that he seems really keen on adding a center. I know he said that in the Chaput deal but the way he talked about adding depth, it sounded like he wanted to add more. I could see our 12th pick + Filatov to move up and take Strome or Huberdeau. Both can play center or wing and are killing it in their respected leagues. I'm particularly high on Huberdeau due to his low bust possibility and potential best offensive player in regards to scoring in the draft.

umbyforpresident 03-03-2011 11:36 AM

I imagine, as per SH usual, we will hold the pick and do one of two things:

1. Target a mid-late 20 player, trade back, draft our guy. Adding a 2/3 rd pick with a good target player (my bet is a C/D/W/G in that order) is a good positive. This draft doesn't have as much highlight talent depth as previous ones, but something I'm noticing is a serious depth between the 20-40 mark, all of them capable of being 15-20 players instead. So having 3 picks in the first 40-50 could be a great opportunity to continue to provide depth.

2. Simply hold the pick and draft a player in that spot. My bet is we get the 13 spot.

Unless we acquire an additional first round at the draft by moving players in sign and trades like Hejda and Stralman, or just moving another contracted player, I don't see SH trading it. He likes the depth we have currently with Johansen, Brassard, Vermette, and we all know he's more apt to be patient and strike when it benefits us (even if it's a small splash) rather than make a big splash that could have high risk written all over it.

mt-svk 03-03-2011 01:45 PM

I do not think we need the first pick it is useless. :nod: But if yes I do not think GM will want Filatov he has enough low price now even if we would offer our first pick too.

Gagnefan924 03-03-2011 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mt-svk (Post 31387339)
I do not think we need the first pick it is useless. :nod: But if yes I do not think GM will want Filatov he has enough low price now even if we would offer our first pick too.

Our first and Filatov could net us a good move up in the draft. It would let us pick a player that we can start new with. 1st round picks arent useless....

KallioWeHardlyKnewYe 03-03-2011 03:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gagnefan924 (Post 31388510)
Our first and Filatov could net us a good move up in the draft. It would let us pick a player that we can start new with. 1st round picks arent useless....

I don't care about moving up.

If Filatov and the 1st are in play, bring in immediate help.

blahblah 03-03-2011 03:34 PM

It's a bullet to use with other assets. Probably not going to get another RJ deal with one in the mid to upper teens.

Gagnefan924 03-03-2011 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KallioWeHardlyKnewYe (Post 31389514)
I don't care about moving up.

If Filatov and the 1st are in play, bring in immediate help.

Its not going to bring in a top player. But it brings in top line potential that will help the team in the long run. Howson has been pretty good at the draft, I'm not going to question his decisions really but I'd like for him to move up.

mt-svk 03-03-2011 03:58 PM

I do not want to trade our players for picks. We can see that later drafted players can play excelent too. Picks are too overrated. And my idea about Filly you know. If we trade him we make a big mistake. We would make good if we would help him in his mental problems, his psyche what is his the problem and not think about trades. Such solution is absolutely short-sighted and amateur.

Timeless Winter 03-03-2011 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mt-svk (Post 31390161)
I do not want to trade our players for picks. We can see that later drafted players can play excelent too. Picks are too overrated. And my idea about Filly you know. If we trade him we make a big mistake. We would make good if we would help him in his mental problems, his psyche what is his the problem and not think about trades. Such solution is absolutely short-sighted and amateur.

We can let another team solve his mental problems. Arniel is not a babysitter

JACKETfan 03-03-2011 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KallioWeHardlyKnewYe (Post 31389514)
I don't care about moving up.

If Filatov and the 1st are in play, bring in immediate help.

I agree.

We might also do well trading the #1 pick straight up for a top player from a team that has salary issues. It's a cheaper way to acquire top talent than signing a UFA.

This year is a guess, but the next two years seem to be PRIME years for where our roster is at. And they are critical years for the franchise.

KallioWeHardlyKnewYe 03-03-2011 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gagnefan924 (Post 31390056)
Its not going to bring in a top player. But it brings in top line potential that will help the team in the long run. Howson has been pretty good at the draft, I'm not going to question his decisions really but I'd like for him to move up.

The pick alone very likely isn't going to return a top player. As part of a package? Maybe.

Who knows what it really can or can't do until this summer and we see what's out there. If an upgrade isn't to be had, I'm fine with standing pat and picking, but my preference is to bring in immediate help.

We got several guys in the system with good potential for the future. Some guys we expect to pan out will and some won't. Some guys we're not expecting much from will wind up being useful. The future doesn't worry me.

The present does. What we don't have is a consistent playoff contender. I'd rather gamble with an experience NHL'er at this point in the team's history than another long-term prospect.

Again, if we're in the top 10, I'm probably not feeling this way.

Doug19 03-03-2011 05:36 PM

If Murphy is still there when we pick I say we trade it because it should have more value. Murphy isn't going to be very good #5 defender at best and he will not be very useful in our prospect pool.

Timeless Winter 03-03-2011 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doug61 (Post 31391805)
If Murphy is still there when we pick I say we trade it because it should have more value. Murphy isn't going to be very good #5 defender at best and he will not be very useful in our prospect pool.

Sense, this makes none. If Murphy's there, you take him and run for the hills laughing. We don't have a defenseman as good as him in Springfield. He's better than Moore.

Doug19 03-03-2011 05:46 PM

Just wait

Gagnefan924 03-03-2011 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doug61 (Post 31391805)
If Murphy is still there when we pick I say we trade it because it should have more value. Murphy isn't going to be very good #5 defender at best and he will not be very useful in our prospect pool.

How do you make these assumptions? How many times have you seen him play? Highlights and reading up on people questioning his skill doesnt count.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmVdVJ1sRJI

Doug19 03-03-2011 05:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gagnefan924 (Post 31392081)
How do you make these assumptions? How many times have you seen him play? Highlights and reading up on people questioning his skill doesnt count.

He's so small. It is bobbing.

Sore Loser 03-03-2011 05:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KallioWeHardlyKnewYe (Post 31384245)
If its in the top 10, my thinking would change somewhat. Beyond the top 10 -- trade that sucker.

I agree with this, but only based on whose available when our pick does come up. If someone like Siemens falls to us in the teens, that's too good to pass up. (Keep the Siemens falling comments to yourselves)

Quote:

Originally Posted by KallioWeHardlyKnewYe (Post 31389514)
I don't care about moving up.

If Filatov and the 1st are in play, bring in immediate help.

This.

If we're trading a pick away, accumulating more picks/prospects doesn't help us immediately - why even bother? We're just going to get multiple prospects of lower value than the one we could have had anyways.

If we get some immediate help - particularly on the blueline - this team has a legitimate shot at the playoffs next year. I'm not talking squeezing into the 8th seed, I'm talking making the playoffs with a chance to advance. Especially if we keep guys like Upshall around.

To answer the original question, the value of this year's first rounder isn't as high as it's been in recent years. This draft is fairly comparable to the 2005 draft, where there is one player generally at the top (Larson - Crosby), a small group of solid players right behind (Nugent-Hopkins, Couturier, Landeskog - Ryan, Johnson, Brule), and then from there it's a mash of intriguing players with high risk/high reward value, or more sure-bet prospects with fairly low ceilings. Yes, I included Brule in my second tier - remember, heading into that season he was drawing comparisons to Crosby. And no, to clarify - I'm not comparing any of those players to each other. Just that the draft is shaping up similarly as far as first round value.

Some good players did come in the teens in that draft - Kopitar, M. Staal, Hanzal - but alot of the guys drafted around them busted hard. I really think that will be the case again this year.

Gagnefan924 03-03-2011 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doug61 (Post 31392160)
He's so small. It is bobbing.

Thats a terrible excuse to why Murphy will not pan out. He really isnt that small. Plus if you watched him play, he is extremely effective using his quickness and his stick to take away his disadvantages in height. He's too shifty, and skilled to be considered a bust because of his size. Best stick handler in the draft, and probably one of the most accurate slapshots. Great speed, forwards and backwards. Columbus Blue Jacket fans ***** about not taking Cam Fowler, well folks, here's a better version. Its funny how you base your argument on a matter of a couple inches that considers someone "small" to a "normal" sized player.


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