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-   -   2011 Mid-Season Prospect Poll: Who's #19? (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=894065)

Ruckus007 03-22-2011 12:47 PM

2011 Mid-Season Prospect Poll: Who's #19?
 
1. Zack Kassian (RW, OHL): 41 of 53, 77.36%
2. Jhonas Enroth (G, AHL): 33 of 48, 68.75%
3. Luke Adam (C, AHL): 31 of 47, 65.96%
4. Brayden McNabb (D, WHL): 28 of 56, 50.00%
5. Mark Pysyk (D, WHL): 28 of 42, 66.67%
6. Drew Schiestel (D, AHL): 25 of 39, 64.10%
7. T.J. Brennan (D, AHL): 17 of 37, 45.95%
8. Marcus Foligno (LW, OHL): 27 of 32, 84.38%
9. Paul Byron (C, AHL): 22 of 31, 70.97%
10. Jerome Gauthier-Leduc (D, QMJHL): 7 of 34, 20.59%
11. Kevin Sundher (C, WHL): 10 of 29, 34.48%
12. Matt MacKenzie (D, WHL): 11 of 27, 40.74%
13. Corey Tropp (RW, AHL): 11 of 22, 50.00%
14. Nick Crawford (D, AHL): 15 of 35, 42.86%
15. Alex Biega (D, AHL): 22 of 27, 81.48%
16. Connor Knapp (G, NCAA): 13 of 22, 59.09%
17. Dennis Persson (D, AHL): 8 of 26, 30.77%
18. Christian Isackson (RW, USHL): 7 of 22, 31.82%

Chainshot 03-22-2011 12:48 PM

All that typing can take a while... ;)

Legault again.

Rammstein816 03-22-2011 01:02 PM

You cut Fienhage for Knapp. I see how it is...;)

Ruckus007 03-22-2011 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rammstein816 (Post 31832592)
You cut Fienhage for Knapp. I see how it is...;)

You're lucky I made it this long without screwing something up. :facepalm:

Chainshot 03-22-2011 01:36 PM

Hey Duddy... did you mean to vote for the Connor clone? I can move your vote if you so desire...

msm29 03-22-2011 02:14 PM

Riley. 18 goals for a goon isn't a bad thing.

Rammstein816 03-22-2011 03:11 PM

Voting for Shipley. Tough choice between Fienhage and him. Shipley has a lot of skill, if he can get his head on straight, he'll be a good talent to have.

OcAirlines 03-22-2011 05:03 PM

Drew Mac, just beating Henley and Shipley

ct2111 03-22-2011 07:38 PM

Boychuk.

Hated their 2010 4th-6th round selections and right now it doesn't look like any of them will make it to the AHL. Maybe Henley, if he's able to overcome his injury issues.

Chainshot 03-22-2011 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by meganie (Post 31840185)
Boychuk.

Hated their 2010 4th-6th round selections and right now it doesn't look like any of them will make it to the AHL. Maybe Henley, if he's able to overcome his injury issues.

None of the three is AHL eligible next year. They'll all be back with their respective junior teams for another year to refine their game.

gaf 03-22-2011 09:03 PM

So- in the history of HF prospect polls- has anyone outside the top 10 ever 'stuck' in the NHL? 100 games? 2 seasons? Just curious? And I dont have a measure of 'stuck' for the NHL, but I'm thinking someone deserves credit if they were on the big club roster for the majority of 2 seasons.
I really like Biega- and dot know enough on the other guys to say whether or not they have a shot based on their development as of today. Might be an interesting historical stat to keep track of.

ct2111 03-22-2011 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chainshot (Post 31841988)
None of the three is AHL eligible next year. They'll all be back with their respective junior teams for another year to refine their game.

I wouldn't have added that last sentence if I wasn't aware of that. ;)
What I mean is, IF they had to make a decision this summer, they probably wouldn't offer a contract to any of them. Of course I'm aware that they still have a season left to improve.

Rammstein816 03-22-2011 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gaf (Post 31843517)
So- in the history of HF prospect polls- has anyone outside the top 10 ever 'stuck' in the NHL? 100 games? 2 seasons? Just curious? And I dont have a measure of 'stuck' for the NHL, but I'm thinking someone deserves credit if they were on the big club roster for the majority of 2 seasons.
I really like Biega- and dot know enough on the other guys to say whether or not they have a shot based on their development as of today. Might be an interesting historical stat to keep track of.

I haven't been on this message board to know for sure, but I'd imagine that Kaleta, Gaustad, and Hejda were outside of the top 10 if you voted for them at that time.

Chainshot 03-22-2011 09:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rammstein816 (Post 31844004)
I haven't been on this message board to know for sure, but I'd imagine that Kaleta, Gaustad, and Hejda were outside of the top 10 if you voted for them at that time.

Kaleta was, not that long ago - http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=418571
:laugh:

Better yet... check this one out:

http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=284912 :biglaugh:

Yeah.

gaf 03-22-2011 09:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chainshot (Post 31844124)
Kaleta was, not that long ago - http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=418571
:laugh:

Better yet... check this one out:

http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=284912 :biglaugh:

Yeah.

lol- yeah Paille and Persson were 4 and 5. what do we know?? ;):laugh:

OcAirlines 03-22-2011 09:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by meganie (Post 31840185)
Boychuk.

Hated their 2010 4th-6th round selections and right now it doesn't look like any of them will make it to the AHL. Maybe Henley, if he's able to overcome his injury issues.

Don't totally agree with all you said, but in general i feel the same way, i also don't think we did the best job in the later rounds of the 2010 draft. Although with a nice backstory, I didn't like the Sutch-pick and Shipley doesn't seem to pan out. Henley is a pretty big question mark as is Isackson, but I'm okay with projects like them in the later rounds. Boychuk is meh, I don't think he offers much, but is okay for a late 7th-rounder. He'll have a hard time getting an AHL-contract though (he won't be CHL-eligible next year, right?).

@gaf: Just compare the 13-18 range to those between 4 and 8 ...

Chainshot 03-22-2011 09:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OcAirlines (Post 31845245)
Don't totally agree with all you said, but in general i feel the same way, i also don't think we did the best job in the later rounds of the 2010 draft. Although with a nice backstory, I didn't like the Sutch-pick and Shipley doesn't seem to pan out. Henley is a pretty big question mark as is Isackson, but I'm okay with projects like them in the later rounds. Boychuk is meh, I don't think he offers much, but is okay for a late 7th-rounder. He'll have a hard time getting an AHL-contract though (he won't be CHL-eligible next year, right?).

@gaf: Just compare the 13-18 range to those between 4 and 8 ...

They have plenty of contract space for new signings. Boychuk is 20 and I expect him to be signed.

jfb392 03-22-2011 09:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OcAirlines (Post 31845245)
Don't totally agree with all you said, but in general i feel the same way, i also don't think we did the best job in the later rounds of the 2010 draft. Although with a nice backstory, I didn't like the Sutch-pick and Shipley doesn't seem to pan out. Henley is a pretty big question mark as is Isackson, but I'm okay with projects like them in the later rounds. Boychuk is meh, I don't think he offers much, but is okay for a late 7th-rounder. He'll have a hard time getting an AHL-contract though (he won't be CHL-eligible next year, right?).

@gaf: Just compare the 13-18 range to those between 4 and 8 ...

He's eligible to play in the CHL because he will not turn 21 until 2012.

OcAirlines 03-22-2011 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chainshot (Post 31845753)
They have plenty of contract space for new signings. Boychuk is 20 and I expect him to be signed.

You're probably right. Although, if you can even say something like this about a player ranked in the #20-range, i think Boychuk is somewhat overrated by some people around here. They treat his 35 points like they are something impressive, but as a 20-year old in his third full season, come on... He doesn't seem to be a pure heavyweight and 35 points in his final year are underwhelming even for an all-grit-4th-liner. McCormick, Kaleta or Mair all had 50+ at least once, hell, even Peters put up 24.
In this region of the poll you only have guys with a very slim chance to reach their ceiling left, so i'll at least take those with a very low chance to become a 2nd or 3rd liner and not the one with a very low chance to become a 13th forward.

Heck, it's a lot of talk about a position in the poll where it's pretty much all about luck, i know :laugh:. I just think people tend to overvalue guys like Boychuk, Sutch, Legault or even Foligno just because they have size and grit.

Chainshot 03-22-2011 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OcAirlines (Post 31846515)
You're probably right. Although, if you can even say something like this about a player ranked in the #20-range, i think Boychuk is somewhat overrated by some people around here. They treat his 35 points like they are something impressive, but as a 20-year old in his third full season, come on... He doesn't seem to be a pure heavyweight and 35 points in his final year are underwhelming even for an all-grit-4th-liner. McCormick, Kaleta or Mair all had 50+ at least once, hell, even Peters put up 24.
In this region of the poll you only have guys with a very slim chance to reach their ceiling left, so i'll at least take those with a very low chance to become a 2nd or 3rd liner and not the one with a very low chance to become a 13th forward.

Heck, it's a lot of talk about a position in the poll where it's pretty much all about luck, i know :laugh:. I just think people tend to overvalue guys like Boychuk, Sutch, Legault or even Foligno just because they have size and grit.

The thing is, there are guys who get by as pro players on size and grit who don't have the skill. At this point in the rankings, there is a lot of flotsam. It's why I'm keen on them to press hard for Miele and DaCosta -- they need skill guys with the upside to play a top 6 or top 9 role. Right now, we're in the neighborhood of guys who might be, maybe, could turn out to be a 4th liner. Not that it's a bad thing, and it's possible someone will evolve into something more. 'Tis why these rankings are fairly fluid.

ct2111 03-22-2011 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OcAirlines (Post 31846515)
You're probably right. Although, if you can even say something like this about a player ranked in the #20-range, i think Boychuk is somewhat overrated by some people around here. They treat his 35 points like they are something impressive, but as a 20-year old in his third full season, come on... He doesn't seem to be a pure heavyweight and 35 points in his final year are underwhelming even for an all-grit-4th-liner. McCormick, Kaleta or Mair all had 50+ at least once, hell, even Peters put up 24.
In this region of the poll you only have guys with a very slim chance to reach their ceiling left, so i'll at least take those with a very low chance to become a 2nd or 3rd liner and not the one with a very low chance to become a 13th forward.

Heck, it's a lot of talk about a position in the poll where it's pretty much all about luck, i know :laugh:. I just think people tend to overvalue guys like Boychuk, Sutch, Legault or even Foligno just because they have size and grit.

It's not his final year, his first season didn't count as a full season, because he only played 6 games.

He was on a good streak until he got his concussion, I think he went around PPG the games before.

And McCormick had less points in more games in his third year.

With the options left, I don't think you can actually overrate any of them. None of the more recent picks have improved from last year, the other choices are AHLers who are atleast 2-3 years older than him. I guess Drew MacKenzie has some decent stats, but who knows if he even gets signed, same with Fienhage. The most promising prospect (Gogulla) doesn't look like he wants to play in the AHL to get to the NHL. So really, there's not much left.

jfb392 03-22-2011 10:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by meganie (Post 31846889)
It's not his final year, his first season didn't count as a full season, because he only played 6 games.

He was on a good streak until he got his concussion, I think he went around PPG the games before.

And McCormick had less points in more games in his third year.

With the options left, I don't think you can actually overrate any of them. None of the more recent picks have improved from last year, the other choices are AHLers who are atleast 2-3 years older than him. I guess Drew MacKenzie has some decent stats, but who knows if he even gets signed, same with Fienhage. The most promising prospect (Gogulla) doesn't look like he wants to play in the AHL to get to the NHL. So really, there's not much left.

While it is true that his first season, which was six games, doesn't count as a real season, it doesn't have anything to do with his eligibility to play in the AHL or CHL.
He must be 20 by December 31st to play in the AHL (he is 20 right now) or must have completed four junior seasons (which doesn't matter in this case, because he's already 20).
You do not have to meet both conditions.
He's still eligible to play in the CHL though, as I already mentioned, because he will not be 21 until 2012.
The number of seasons played, as far as I know, has nothing to do with CHL eligibility.
You must only meet the age requirements.

As for Gogulla, I don't think he wants to get to the NHL at all anymore, period.
Kölner Haie is a very popular team and he's played there for a number of years now, plus they were willing to throw a three year contract at him, so he is probably being paid fairly well.
I think he has talent, but I really wonder if they even met with him before the draft or anything and asked him how important playing in the NHL was to him. :shakehead
I don't even view him as part of our prospect pool anymore even if we've retained his rights.

ct2111 03-23-2011 12:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfb392 (Post 31848289)
While it is true that his first season, which was six games, doesn't count as a real season, it doesn't have anything to do with his eligibility to play in the AHL or CHL.
He must be 20 by December 31st to play in the AHL (he is 20 right now) or must have completed four junior seasons (which doesn't matter in this case, because he's already 20).
You do not have to meet both conditions.
He's still eligible to play in the CHL though, as I already mentioned, because he will not be 21 until 2012.
The number of seasons played, as far as I know, has nothing to do with CHL eligibility.
You must only meet the age requirements.

That was the response to him comparing his numbers to Kaleta, Mair and McCormick. I was just saying that McCormick had worse numbers in his 3rd year.

OcAirlines 03-23-2011 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by meganie (Post 31850682)
That was the response to him comparing his numbers to Kaleta, Mair and McCormick. I was just saying that McCormick had worse numbers in his 3rd year.

When McCormick was the age Boychuks is right now, he had almost twice the points (69 to 35). I don't think you can use it as an argument for Riley, that he didn't manage to crack the team full-time when he was 16, while others like Cody did.
But it's good that he can play another season at the CHL-level, maybe he has a chance to develop a bit like Foligno.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chainshot (Post 31846734)
The thing is, there are guys who get by as pro players on size and grit who don't have the skill. At this point in the rankings, there is a lot of flotsam. It's why I'm keen on them to press hard for Miele and DaCosta -- they need skill guys with the upside to play a top 6 or top 9 role. Right now, we're in the neighborhood of guys who might be, maybe, could turn out to be a 4th liner. Not that it's a bad thing, and it's possible someone will evolve into something more. 'Tis why these rankings are fairly fluid.

Sure, but other guys who don't get by because of their talent (McCormick, Mair, Kaleta, and i won't even start with Ellis etc.) still have waaaaaay better numbers that Boychuk. If you go with a pure size/grit-player here, Legault would still be my choice over Boychuk.
A good college/UFA-prospect in the offseason would be a great addition though and i hope the Pegula-regiment improves our chances in that area too.

Quote:

With the options left, I don't think you can actually overrate any of them. None of the more recent picks have improved from last year, the other choices are AHLers who are atleast 2-3 years older than him. I guess Drew MacKenzie has some decent stats, but who knows if he even gets signed, same with Fienhage. The most promising prospect (Gogulla) doesn't look like he wants to play in the AHL to get to the NHL. So really, there's not much left.
True, some of those remaining would be a worse choice than Boychuk. I've written off Gogulla, Schutz and Buravchikov, as i have others like Eno, Turnbull, also a guy i like personally, won't have an NHL-future too. But guys like DrewMac, Shipley, Henley or Lagace at least have a slim-chance to become something better. At this stage of the voting, i usually go with ceiling over the likelihood of reaching it.

Sorry for al this talking about far-away projects, i just think the voting-process has been way too quiet so far :laugh:.


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