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-   -   Would you sign a RFA for 5 first round picks (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=90243)

Kickabrat 07-09-2004 04:21 PM

Would you sign a RFA for 5 first round picks
 
I thought I would start a new thread on this topic (following up on the "Would you trade for Joe Thornton" thread discussion)

I recommend you read the article TSN.ca before posting a response. http://www.tsn.ca/tools/print_feature.asp?fid=9273

This article uses the Federov and Scott Stevens examples and concludes it is a worthwhile risk to sign a RFA for picks. I won't re-hash the article you can read it for yourself.

Q: Would you sign Joe Thornton for the Sens next 5 first rounders?

IMO: yes IF you can sign him for $5-$6M per year for 5 years and you restock picks by trading assets over the next 5 years. I wouldn't sign just any RFA only an impact type player and Thornton is one who is just entering his prime years.

My reasons:
  1. you are giving up a late first round pick that in most draft years is pretty equivalent to a second round pick (which hopefully you are replenishing as time goes on).
  2. There aren't many late first round picks who become impact players. There may be the odd one (Havlat?) but not many.
  3. Sens seem to draft a good player from just about anywhere in the draft
  4. Boston can't pick worth beans in the first round anyway
  5. If Thornton delivers a Stanley Cup or two over the next five years its worth it. As long the team remains competetive after that, I would be very happy to win two cups in a ten year span (heck I'd setlle for 1).
flame away (nicely)

Tap on the Ankle 07-09-2004 04:31 PM

There is only one player I would give up 5 first roundies for: Patty Roy in his prime.

SENS_FAN_09 07-09-2004 04:35 PM

And if we did this in 1999, five years ago, where would we be...?

Lets look...

1999-Martin Havlat= 3rd highest scorer on our team
2000-Anton Volchenkov=future great defenceman
2001-Jason Spezza=4th highest scorer on the team after only one full season in the nhl and our future #1 centre
2002-Jakub Klepis=traded for one of our best grit players
2003-Patrick Eaves=one of our best prospects

Where would we be if the Bruins got all this?

Kickabrat 07-09-2004 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fisher
There is only one player I would give up 5 first roundies for: Patty Roy in his prime.

OK what about how about Scott Stevens (in his prime) for Halverson, S. Gonchar, B. Witt, N. Baumgartner and some guy called Elomo?

These are the 5 picks the Caps ended up getting from the Blues for signing Scott Stevens (who they then lost to the Devils for signing Shanahan).

This is a question of risk/reward.

There is the risk that you will have had to pass on an impact player in the draft BUT you signed an impact player in return (who hopefully helps you to one or two Stanley cups in return).

The odds of picking 5 or even 1 impact players with a late first round pick is remote. Maybe if your the Devils or the Sens but most team particularly the Bruins won't. You may end up with 1 impact player and 4 very good players but odds are you end up with 2 very good players, 2 average players and 1 that no one ever hears from again.

IMO it doesn't seem like a high price to pay for the potential reward.

SensGod 07-09-2004 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SENS_FAN_09
And if we did this in 1999, five years ago, where would we be...?

Lets look...

1999-Martin Havlat= 3rd highest scorer on our team
2000-Anton Volchenkov=future great defenceman
2001-Jason Spezza=4th highest scorer on the team after only one full season in the nhl and our future #1 centre
2002-Jakub Klepis=traded for one of our best grit players
2003-Patrick Eaves=one of our best prospects

Where would we be if the Bruins got all this?

Bingo! that'll more or less make it pretty stupid to do something like this.

SensGod 07-09-2004 04:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fisher
There is only one player I would give up 5 first roundies for: Patty Roy in his prime.

Now I'm not saying that Luongo is as good as Roy...but in the current NHL...Luongo is the ONLY guy right now I'd even remotely consider moving 3-5 1st rounders for.

But even at that...it's still crazy even to contemplate moving 5 1st rounders.

Kickabrat 07-09-2004 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SENS_FAN_09
And if we did this in 1999, five years ago, where would we be...?

Lets look...

1999-Martin Havlat= 3rd highest scorer on our team
2000-Anton Volchenkov=future great defenceman
2001-Jason Spezza=4th highest scorer on the team after only one full season in the nhl and our future #1 centre
2002-Jakub Klepis=traded for one of our best grit players
2003-Patrick Eaves=one of our best prospects

Where would we be if the Bruins got all this?

The Bruins would not have got ALL of this. Spezza was a second overall pick, compared to a first overall for Thornton. But still this pick was not the Sens original pick it was traded for in the Yashin deal. Havlat, Volchenkov, Eaves and Klepis were all "off the board" picks. All expected to go later in the draft and could have been picked up by the Sens in the second round.

The odds of getting an impact player with a 25 to 30 is extremely small. It just does not happen that often. and certainly does not happen for five consecutive years.

You would not be giving up that much PLUS you receive an impact player in his prime. (bird in the hand worth two in the bush or in this case 5)

Kickabrat 07-09-2004 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SensGod
But even at that...it's still crazy even to contemplate moving 5 1st rounders.

It is not crazy.. Go read the above mentioned article on TSN.ca. The case is all there.

Plus who's to say Thornton would not have provided that little extra edge we seem to have needed to get past the Leafs or the Devils? Havlat and Spezza didn't. IF we had won a stanley cup or two over the past three years would you even care that Klepis was playing for the Bruins? or Havlat or Spezza for that matter? The only difference is, everyone would be wearing a Sens Thornton jersey instead of a Havlat or Spezza one.

The point is, you don't make this transaction unless you get an impact player in his prime. The only argument I see is "is Thornton an impact player?"

BruinsGirl 07-09-2004 05:07 PM

5 picks won't put butts into the seats in the Fleet. B's fans go to the games to watch Thornton. He is an integral part of this team, not a spare part.

Spezza 07-09-2004 05:08 PM

Personally, I'd do it for our team because Joe is worth it. Think about it this way, would you trade 5 first rounders for Mario in his mids 20s?

littleHossa 07-09-2004 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BruinsGirl
5 picks won't put butts into the seats in the Fleet. B's fans go to the games to watch Thornton. He is an integral part of this team, not a spare part.

People pay to see Havlat and Volchenkov play.

joolzie 07-09-2004 05:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kickabrat
Havlat, Volchenkov, Eaves and Klepis were all "off the board" picks. All expected to go later in the draft and could have been picked up by the Sens in the second round.

I can't comment on the others, but Havlat was actually expected to go higher than he did, somewhere in the 15-18 range.

The Senators have had exceptionally good luck/skill in their drafting, but for a proven impact player just entering his prime , I think giving up 5 first rounders can definitely be a risk worth taking... as long as you're not giving them to a team like New Jersey, who is possibly even better at drafting than the Sens. The other thing to worry about is that whatever team will then potenially have two first round picks for the next five years, so going within the conference should be carefully considered, poor drafting team or not.

As I'm sure someone mentioned, it's not as though you're giving up five first overalls; with a team like the Sens you're looking at pretty late first rounders, especially, in theory, when you get someone like Thornton to add to the mix, barring serious injury.

Uh, and I apologize if these are things mentioned in the article originally linked to, I admittedly didn't read it.

Kickabrat 07-09-2004 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by littleHossa
People pay to see Havlat and Volchenkov play.

But if Thornton had been there and delivered a cup, would we be having this discussion? Would you even care about Havlat if the Sens had never drafted him? Would you have even heard of Klepis or cared?

Impact players are rare even when you have a top ten pick. When you get a chance to get one in his prime for twenty something picks....what is there to think about. Yes there is a an extremely slim chance you could be giving up 5 Havlats, but you are most likely giving up a Gonchar, Witt, Baumgartner and two Klepis.

Kickabrat 07-09-2004 09:05 PM

I looked at the draft picks in the number 20 to 30 spots for the years 1990 to 2000.
Over the 11 years these players have averaged 0.25 PTS per game and 43 GP per year or in other words if all your 5 picks played at once, you could expect 11 pts a year or 55 PTS in total.

Joe Thornton avg: .83 PTS per game say 75 games a year = 62 PTS

Notable exceptions (players with at least 100 carreer goals) Palffy, Smolinski, Rucinsky, Whitney, Bertuzzi, Ozolinsh, McAmmond, Chris Simon, Sturm, Koivu, Simon Gagne and Daniel Briere. This is about 12% of all the picks.

For every one of those there are three Miika Elomo and Chad Penney's.

There are players from late 90's and 2000 that are still playing and are contributing, but there are many more Trevor Halversons in the group than Bertuzzis.

V for Voodoo 07-09-2004 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kickabrat
But if Thornton had been there and delivered a cup, would we be having this discussion?

He can't even deliver a 2nd round berth in Boston, nevermind the Cup.

Kickabrat 07-09-2004 11:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Voodoo
He can't even deliver a 2nd round berth in Boston, nevermind the Cup.

Not here to debate whether Thornton can or can't. You can substitute Thornton for any other impact RFA in his prime.

It doesn't change the probability that he should be better than the late 1st round picks that you give up.

EJsens1 07-10-2004 12:12 AM

Initially, I was a little hesitant in doing this, but it seems not as bad an idea. But after the 1995 CBA was signed, how many teams actually let the RFA(of significance) go??? The front loaded attempt to sign guys like Gratton, Fedorov and Sakic would be matched, although Gratton was eventually traded to the Flyers. I'm curious as to how it would look after a new CBA is reached and the possibility of a lowered UFA age. These draft picks that each team has could be more valuable if you have to re-stock talent. Getting a player like Thornton though would be a good move in my opinion. We could also trade some assets for draft pciks if we feel it had to come to that.

Kickabrat 07-10-2004 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Craven Morehead
We could also trade some assets for draft pciks if we feel it had to come to that.

Exactly the point I have trying to make throughout this thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by Craven Morehead
But after the 1995 CBA was signed, how many teams actually let the RFA(of significance) go???

Not many. Scott Stevens was the only one of significance I can remember. And of course the Federov deal that was hugely front end loaded and Detroit had to match. I can remember all the broo-hah-hah about that one at the time, but funny after wining a couple of cups for Detroit no ever made a big deal about it anymore. Amazing what wining a cup will do for a fan's memory.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Craven Morehead
I'm curious as to how it would look after a new CBA is reached and the possibility of a lowered UFA age. These draft picks that each team has could be more valuable if you have to re-stock talent.

Very true. The new CBA may change the rules quite significantly. I suspect the NHLPA will be asking for looser restrictions to allow more RFA movement, which could mean less compensation. Who knows what lies in the hearts of BETman and BADenow.

operasen 07-10-2004 06:45 PM

No. The process of this franchise has been to draft and develop. We've made a couple of trades (prospects for players) in the last years and they have not worked out, except for Varada. Our philosophy would be radically changes if we were to send 5 No. 1 draft picks away for anyone. No thank you.

Kickabrat 07-10-2004 08:48 PM

The process may be great but it hasn't delivered what everyone's been wating for...a stanley cup.

Tap on the Ankle 07-10-2004 09:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kickabrat
The process may be great but it hasn't delivered what everyone's been wating for...a stanley cup.

The Red Wings were an elite team for at least 6 years before they won a Stanley Cup, and they've won 3 of them total since then. Ottawa has been elite for what, 3, maybe 4 years?

This team is still really, really, ridiculously young, and they will only get better. Our oldest core player is Alfredsson (32), which is fairly young when you compare it to other elite teams' core players. Then you've got Hossa (25) who is considered by some to be a top 3 winger in the league, Havlat (23) who is already a PPG player, Chara (27) who just had a major breakout year and will remain a dominant force for years to come, Redden (27) a Team Canada player who is being used as a model for up and coming defensemen, Fisher (24) our checking centre who just proved he is no longer a 4th liner, Spezza (21) was 4th on the team for scoring (and this is the highest scoring team in the league we're talking about here). Other notables are Phillips (26), Volchenkov (22), Vermette (turning 22 in 10 days), Varada (28), and hell, even Smolinski (33) isn't a geezer yet.

Point is, most of this team is still very, very young, and many of them haven't even entered their prime yet. This team can only get better from now on, and we've just got to be patient with them. No drastic moves are really necessary.

Our time will come.

sensfan 07-11-2004 12:20 AM

i agree with fisher...

the senators have a bright future ahead of them... i think that we'll be a top team for years to come... our core players haven't even hit their prime (havlat, spezza, hossa, redden, chara etc.) if we were in a situation like the avalanche or something then i'd understand being worried but it's not like we're trading away our future for one last kick of the can... i'm not worried about not having won a cup yet... we have plently of time

BTW i wudn't even consider signing thornton as a RFA... although he is an elite player i dont think that any one player is worth 5 first round picks (except perhaps mario's and gretzky's) 5 first round picks can potentially be the core of your team a few years down the road...

Kickabrat 07-11-2004 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sensfan
i agree with fisher...
BTW i wudn't even consider signing thornton as a RFA... although he is an elite player i dont think that any one player is worth 5 first round picks (except perhaps mario's and gretzky's) 5 first round picks can potentially be the core of your team a few years down the road...

Key word being POTENTIALLY. Only true if you are talking about a top ten pick.

Name one team that has drafted 5 players in consecutive years in the 20-30 slots and come up with 5 core players or even three.

Plus you are not receiving some 30+ player past his prime. You are getting an impact player just getting into his prime that will be with your team for another 5 to 8 years. Look at the Stevens deal. Did Washington pick up any impact players. The best they got was Gonchar.

sensfan 07-11-2004 10:50 AM

you bring up some good points kickabrat but i still wudn't sign thornton as a RFA... no matter how you slice it, 5 first round picks is a lot to give up for any one player... IMO it's too much but you're allowed to have your own opinions

Kickabrat 07-11-2004 10:59 AM

More food for thought. I went back and checked all number 20-30 picks from 1985 to 2000. From the 176 players/Goalies chosen during those years here are the "top" 15 based on GP's, PPG, or my judgement.

Year Num Team Player
1985 24 NJ Sean Burke
1985 28 NYR Mike Richter
1985 27 Cal Joe Nieuwendyk
1986 29 Wpg Teppo Numminen
1986 22 Det Adam Graves
1990 20 NJ Martin Brodeur
1991 26 NYI Zigmund Palffy
1993 23 NYI Todd Bertuzzi
1993 21 Mtl Saku Koivu
1998 21 LA Mathieu Biron
1998 27 NJ Scott Gomez
1998 22 Phi Simon Gagne
1999 21 Bos Nick Boynton
1999 26 Ott Martin Havlat
2000 28 Phil Justin Williams

I don't know if you can yet classify the 1998+ players as "impact players" yet but let's give them the benefit of the doubt and there may be other players chosen then tthat come on strong later. As you can see the list is not exactly 100% prime beef with some notable exceptions. This represents the top 9% of all the players drafted in the #20-30 slots.

Things to note. The goalies were all chosen before it was "fashionable" to chose a goalie other than in the second or later rounds. It was rare to pick any goalie in the 1st round prior to the early-mid 90's. (note Trevor Kidd was picked 11th in 1990 over Brodeur at 20)

Also, you would only pick one player in each year, so in 1985 you would not have gotten all three players listed. If you limit it to one pick per year, the list shrinks in half.

Out of the position players I would argue that Nieuwendyk, Bertuzzi, and Palffy are probably the biggest names, notwithstanding the recent years' picks.

So what does this tell us. You have a 9% chance of picking up a very high quality player (don't forget you also have that RFA you signed as compensation) a 90% of getting a worse player. Eliminating the same year player this shrinks to a 5% chance. Like I said before , the odds of picking an impact player in this slot is slim. You are more likely to pick ten Chad Penney's than one Joe Nieuwendyk.

Is it a risk. Yes it is, but a calculated one, and one you only take if you can get an impact player in his prime that you can sign up for 5 years.

And if you get to the late picks and there is a player you really want, do it the Devil's way--trade your 2nd & 3rd for that late 1st round pick.


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