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-   -   Does Gabby make a difference? (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=903198)

aslim240 04-13-2011 02:04 PM

Does Gabby make a difference?
 
I have been in an ongoing arguement with multiple people about Gaborik's value. My arguement has been: all of his goals come against bad goalies/teams. The intelligent counterargument has been: he draws the best defenders and double teams and it makes the team better.

With the end of the regular season, and frustration with every written and video preview of the series saying "Gaborik had to step up if the Rangers are going to win this series", I decided to run some stats.

I separated games a couple of ways: Gaborik played/did not play; playoff vs non-playoff opponents; Gaborik does/does not score (point/goal/assist). I did not adjust for other players being out, and I only counted regulation goals so OT/SO goals did not distort the numbers.

To my surprise, he makes a difference. Despite scoring 13 of his 22 goals (59%) in 5 games (4 blowouts) against non-playoff teams, his simply being in the game makes a difference. When he scores a point it makes an even bigger difference especially in the win/loss column. Scoring a point made more of a difference then scoring a goal. He makes a difference in both the amount of goals the Rangers score and if they win or lose. There was some volatility in opponents goals per game in the different scenarios, but it was insignificant compared to the variation in the Rangers goals.

The stats are Rangers Goals Per Game (W-L record in those games).

Games he played 2.77 (34-28)
Games he didn't 2.45 (10-10)

The rest are only for games Gaborik played:
vs playoff teams 2.71 (17-14)
vs non-playoff teams 2.84 (17-14)

vs playoff teams
scores a goal 3.11 (5-4)
no goal 2.55 (12-10)

vs playoff teams
scores a point 3.21 (12-7)
does not 1.92 (5-7)

I ran more numbers, but given that we are only playing playoff teams the rest of the way. I think these are the ones that matter, and add me to the chorus of "Gaborik had to step up if the Rangers are going to win this series".

wolfgaze 04-13-2011 02:08 PM

This season, not much... He's been anti-clutch... Ending the season with a 9 game goal scoring drought when the team is tinkering on the edge of missing the playoffs? Brutal.... Problem is, if he's not creating offense, he isn't contributing much to this team because he's not very good defensively and isn't one of our better penalty killers....

Bottom line, he needs to be a difference maker in this playoff series if the Rangers are to advance and he needs to step up big time next year.

shoothepuck 04-13-2011 02:16 PM

Nice stats. He better, but he hasn't shown he's really capable of turning it on this season. Maybe the playoffs will change him..

Primetime Powerplay 04-13-2011 02:23 PM

I think he makes a difference just by his presence

BlueshirtBlitz 04-13-2011 02:26 PM

He's been anything but great down the stretch run, but I don't think he's been terrible. For his contract though, his lack of production is unacceptable. He went through like a 5 game streak where he would score a goal or do something that led to a goal that would allow us to get over the hump of 1-2, 2-2, etc games. If he's going to be a part of this teams future he needs to prove he can still do that.

He also does draw other teams best defenders, which does help, but he really needs to produce in the POs for us to get out of the first round.

beef 4 lunch 04-13-2011 02:27 PM

he has the potential to make a difference. hasnt really come through this season, and im sure he knows it. I anticipate a new Gabby in the playoffs. Just a hunch!:yo:

aslim240 04-13-2011 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wolfgaze (Post 32337065)
This season, not much... He's been anti-clutch... Ending the season with a 9 game goal scoring drought when the team is tinkering on the edge of missing the playoffs? Brutal.... Problem is, if he's not creating offense, he isn't contributing much to this team because he's not very good defensively and isn't one of our better penalty killers....

Bottom line, he needs to be a difference maker in this playoff series if the Rangers are to advance and he needs to step up big time next year.

9 games is pretty arbitrary, he had 4 goals and 5 points in the 4 games before that. and you would have gotten pretty long odds of them taking 8 points @SJ and Pitt, and home vs NYI and Mon.

There is some randomness to all numbers and who scores etc. and I agree with you on feel. If you want to look at the very end, he had an assist in 3 of the last 4 games, and they won 3 of those 4 games, guess which one they lost.

The point of the stats was that when he has a point in either column, they score more and win more. If you want to argue that his effort makes the difference in weather or not he scores a point, there is no way to quantify that.

wolfgaze 04-13-2011 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aslim240 (Post 32337573)
9 games is pretty arbitrary, he had 4 goals and 5 points in the 4 games before that. and you would have gotten pretty long odds of them taking 8 points @SJ and Pitt, and home vs NYI and Mon.

I don't think it's arbitrary when it's the last 9 games of the season and the team is on the edge of missing the playoffs.... 12 of Gabrik's 22 goals came in 4 games this season, 2 of them blowouts.... That means he scored 10 goals over the other 58 games, 1 goal ever 5.8 games.... In addition to the 9 game goalless streak to end the season, he also endured the following goal scoring droughts this season:

-7 games in February
-8 games in January
-5 games in November
-Two 4 game stretches in October & December

http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/players/...OtGCRlMUdivLYF

Unacceptable... I would say if he was battling an ongoing injury, there's some understanding, but the way that Tortorella has been challenging him to be better, leads me to believe the coaching staff thinks he's healthy enough to contribute and score some goals.

TrollololBoyle 04-13-2011 02:38 PM

I've seen Gabby do a lot of positive things on the ice when he isn't scoring this season. He gets pucks off opposing sticks very well, and does play defense well even if it isn't the shot-blocking type of D. He is also extremely amped up for the playoffs, so I know he'll be a force out there.

MSG the place to be* 04-13-2011 02:38 PM

The 'in lineup vs out of lineup' numbers are interesting.

However the 'scores a point vs held scoreless' numbers are meaningless in the context given. You take any player and any positive stat and the absence of that stat is going to correlate with worse performance.

DrAStuart 04-13-2011 02:51 PM

I don't think the last nine game drought is just any "arbitrary" selection of games...if the drought happened between Oct 15 and November 3rd, say, then that's kind of arbitrary.
But those last nine games were pretty crucial...everything was hanging in the balance.
You can make up a mid-season or early season drought...you can even make up for a post-All Star drought...but Gabby's non-presence was a problem in that final stretch....

On the OP...I guess when I look at the numbers you ran I agree that Gabby makes a difference...but I would have thought he made a bigger difference than he does...or I guess I think he SHOULD have made a bigger difference.

And I agree with the general sentiment around here...it a whole new ball game and the big dogs have to show their stuff...and Gabby's is supposed to be our biggest dog...

broadwayblue 04-13-2011 02:54 PM

The guy had a bad season. He's probably still banged up. It's unfortunate but it is what it is. Will he break out and have a great post season? It's possible, but I certainly wouldn't count on it.

aslim240 04-13-2011 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrAStuart (Post 32338097)
I don't think the last nine game drought is just any "arbitrary" selection of games...if the drought happened between Oct 15 and November 3rd, say, then that's kind of arbitrary.
But those last nine games were pretty crucial...everything was hanging in the balance.
You can make up a mid-season or early season drought...you can even make up for a post-All Star drought...but Gabby's non-presence was a problem in that final stretch....

On the OP...I guess when I look at the numbers you ran I agree that Gabby makes a difference...but I would have thought he made a bigger difference than he does...or I guess I think he SHOULD have made a bigger difference.

And I agree with the general sentiment around here...it a whole new ball game and the big dogs have to show their stuff...and Gabby's is supposed to be our biggest dog...

I was saying it was arbitrary to count the last 9 and not the last 13. As we ultimately found out, if we dont win those 4 games, the last 9 would not have mattered.

chosen 04-13-2011 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AJBergy86 (Post 32337434)
I think he makes a difference just by his presence

Me, too. His presence ensures there is less available cash for other more dependable players.

Pizza 04-13-2011 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wolfgaze (Post 32337758)
I don't think it's arbitrary when it's the last 9 games of the season and the team is on the edge of missing the playoffs.... 12 of Gabrik's 22 goals came in 4 games this season, 2 of them blowouts.... That means he scored 10 goals over the other 58 games, 1 goal ever 5.8 games.... In addition to the 9 game goalless streak to end the season, he also endured the following goal scoring droughts this season:

-7 games in February
-8 games in January
-5 games in November
-Two 4 game stretches in October & December

http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/players/...OtGCRlMUdivLYF

Unacceptable... I would say if he was battling an ongoing injury, there's some understanding, but the way that Tortorella has been challenging him to be better, leads me to believe the coaching staff thinks he's healthy enough to contribute and score some goals.

Hard to disagree. So it's not working. Why? How did he score 40 goals last year in a system that does not work for him?

I keep waiting for things to change, but I'm some what at a loss as I suspect we all are. We can only hope he turns it on for the play offs.

brickwall2007 04-13-2011 03:35 PM

gabby absolutely makes a difference. this was down year in stats for him but this season was all about finding the teams identity beyond gaborik. his presence on the ice alone forces a team to always have one eye on him and one eye on the puck. he will be essential to the playoffs and in my opinion with callahan gone, he is going to rise up too be an offensive leader against Washington.

tonights the night we prove all of our rivals and doubters wrong, too many people said we weren't making the playoffs and now we are preparing for round 1.

LETS KEEP PROVING THEM ALL WRONG....

LETS GO RANGERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

JimmyStart* 04-13-2011 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chosen (Post 32338827)
Me, too. His presence ensures there is less available cash for other more dependable players.

Zing though I'[d register this complaint more wtith some other players than with gabs especially when thinking of last season. Even this season he was at least a player at 7 mil. I'd say he was overpaid by 3.5 mil this year but earned his check last year. So we've pissed away about 3.5 mil. Not bad compared to certain others. of course we'll see over the length of this deal if he can join the pantheon of horrific contracts.

OverTheCap 04-13-2011 03:46 PM

Gabby's always been a super streaky player throughout his career. Multiple hat tricks in a season and 10 game goal scoring droughts are the norm. For whatever reason, he was streakier than normal this year and scored most of his goals in a handful of games.

Hopefully he gets hot during the playoffs, or at least has one of those games where he dominates and gets a hat trick. He's been cold for awhile now and he's certainly overdue.

Puckface NYR* 04-13-2011 03:46 PM

Umm yea.

Regardless of points/goals/stats, he is far and away our most explosive player.

Other teams, focus on shutting him down, which creates space for our own guys. He hasn't been good this year, which i believe, is due to injuries, regardless, he makes a major difference just skating a regular shift.

vladmyir111 04-13-2011 04:20 PM

Complain when other teams stop putting their best defenders on him and he still has 20 goals a season.

You think Boyle is scoring 20 goals ever with the Prongers and Keiths etc of the league shadowing him game in and game out? His presence allows the less talented (maybe harder working) players to chip in goals at a regular pace.

NYR94 04-13-2011 04:29 PM

Quote:

...Gaborik has been streaky, scoring 22 goals in his 62 games this season, but only scoring goals in 14 of those 62...
http://www.newsday.com/sports/hockey...ries-1.2814703

Was he enough of a difference maker in the other 48 games to justify his salary?

The Rangers are hoping for big things from Gaborik starting tonight. He can make it easier for a lot of fans to forget an underwhelming regular season by being a big time factor against the Capitals. It's funny how he had a monster season last year and the Rangers still missed the playoffs. This year, he struggles and they're in. Goes to show you how many young Rangers are developing.

clmetsfan 04-13-2011 04:44 PM

He absolutely makes a difference even with his lack of production this season. Not nearly as much of a difference as you would expect or hope for, but he definitely makes a difference with just his presence alone. And despite what some have said, he is a reliable defensive player and didn't see any PK time this year, but did last year and was good at it.

The last game of the season is a perfect example. He made several nice plays in the defensive zone, and set up the GWG by McDonagh.



He uses some fancy stickwork to find Prospal behind the net, then goes to the crease and draws two defenders with him, clearing the shooting lane for McDonagh.

Callahan Auto 04-13-2011 05:26 PM

Every player in some respect makes a difference, and that impact is increased with ice time. Gabby's been a little underwhelming this year but if we're going to have any real shot at making a cup run during these playoffs, we need old Gabby back. Teams are going to look to shut down Gabby, Dubi, and Prospal. If we get Gaborik from last year back, I really think we can beat anyone.

vipernsx 04-13-2011 05:31 PM

The numbers are interesting but I'd really like the 0910Gabby over the 1011Gabby, this one is very unimpressive.

wolfgaze 04-13-2011 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vipernsx (Post 32341830)
The numbers are interesting but I'd really like the 0910Gabby over the 1011Gabby, this one is very unimpressive.

This one looks more like a 3rd liner... We need him to be the top flight forward he's shown he can be.... He need to use his skating to create space, whether it leads to a shot on goal or a pass to a teammate, Gabby's got to skate....


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