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-   -   Prospect Info: 2011 NHL Entry Draft Talk - Part VIII - Adam Larsson's Revenge! (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=910640)

Saugus 05-03-2011 11:31 AM

2011 NHL Entry Draft Talk - Part VIII - Adam Larsson's Revenge!
 
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MasterofGrond 05-03-2011 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Devils731 (Post 32841022)
I agreed it did, but does 6 months matter much? I know 9-12 months does, but I haven't seen anything done for as little as 6. I imagine we would say 3 is unlikely to matter much. So I'm not sure how heavily we should figure 6 months plays into it.

For example, we have last season from Courtier in the Q where he was actually younger than Huberdeau was this season. How would we want to weight that?

An age difference of 6 months in a draft year has been show to make as much as 20% difference in peak value.

Saugus 05-03-2011 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clarkson Falls Down (Post 32841573)
You take the person who they think will be the better player. If you think that Huberdeau has the chance to be the better player long-term, you take him.

Well, that's what I'm saying. Projecting these guys is not easy.

CerebralGenesis 05-03-2011 11:42 AM

I'm shocked and saddened we have filled another one with over a month still left to go

Saugus 05-03-2011 11:45 AM

I'm hoping they release new rankings soon. I imagine there may be some surprises.

Devils731 05-03-2011 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MasterofGrond (Post 32841695)
An age difference of 6 months in a draft year has been show to make as much as 20% difference in peak value.

Do you have a link to that particular analysis or know if Google will bring it up. I'd be interested to see it. 20% sounds too significant. What would 12 months be, 50%?

Jaysfanatic* 05-03-2011 11:52 AM

Huberdeau's playoffs have him in the top four easily. Couturier will have dropped.

MasterofGrond 05-03-2011 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Devils731 (Post 32841920)
Do you have a link to that particular analysis or know if Google will bring it up. I'd be interested to see it. 20% sounds too significant. What would 12 months be, 50%?

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/arti...?articleid=785

CerebralGenesis 05-03-2011 11:59 AM

I'm thinking I'm going to have Huberdeau to Florida in my mock when I get to it

Saugus 05-03-2011 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zack Ryder (Post 32841937)
Huberdeau's playoffs have him in the top four easily. Couturier will have dropped.

Agreed. Murphy may also rise because of his U18 performance.

Jaysfanatic* 05-03-2011 12:04 PM

I probably have it as

RNH
Landeskog
Huberdeau
Larsson
Murphy
Couturier

As my top six.

DEVILS ALL THE WAY* 05-03-2011 12:09 PM

Huberdeau will be a better player then Couturier IMO. Hands like his with exceptional vision and a top notch scoring touch around the net will make this kid a future All-Star while Couturier can be a solid player but will fit the mold of a Zajac/Staal with a little more offense perhaps.

We already have a "Zajac type player" so going with a player that brings about the same intangibles as what you already have wouldn't be a smart move IMO and the same thing can be said if we had Giroux when talking about Huberdeau.

Give me a player that will fit like a glove next to Kovalchuk and that player is Huberdeau IMO since our other star already has his center.

Saugus 05-03-2011 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MasterofGrond (Post 32841938)

That's a very interesting article, and that's what I was referring to in the previous thread. The fact the Couturier is several months older and Huberdeau has the same stats favours Huberdeau.

Saugus 05-03-2011 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DEVILS ALL THE WAY (Post 32842259)
Huberdeau will be a better player then Couturier IMO. Hands like his with exceptional vision and a top notch scoring touch around the net will make this kid a future All-Star while Couturier can be a solid player but will fit the mold of a Zajac/Staal with a little more offense perhaps.

We already have a "Zajac type player" so going with a player that brings about the same intangibles as what you already have wouldn't be a smart move IMO and the same thing can be said if we had Giroux when talking about Huberdeau.

Give me a player that will fit like a glove next to Kovalchuk and that player is Huberdeau IMO since our other star already has his center.

Couturier is underrated as a playmaker. I think either he or Huberdeau would fit fine with Kovalchuk.

And I've said it before and I'll say it again, this organisation has had a history of success with Zajac type centres. I'd take a Zajac clone on this team any day.

Devils731 05-03-2011 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MasterofGrond (Post 32841938)

Interesting, but he's using his work in progress to then define the birth effect? I'm not sure how much we can trust in that? The oddities in some months having more drastic affect than a month after it(excluding the cutoff for leagues month) makes me think he needs more data since I can't think of a reasonable explanation April to May barely matters but March to April makes a a big difference.

This is all semi-moot when discussing Courtier and Huberdeau since Courtier's 09-10 season is dominant if 6 months matters so much. I think that's one of the big problems when comparing Coutier's and Huberdeau's numbers come in, the consistency of Coutier's 2 seasons and the other big one is quality of teammates.

CerebralGenesis 05-03-2011 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saugus (Post 32842345)
Couturier is underrated as a playmaker. I think either he or Huberdeau would fit fine with Kovalchuk.

And I've said it before and I'll say it again, this organisation has had a history of success with Zajac type centres. I'd take a Zajac clone on this team any day.

I agree

If lou gets Couturier at 4, I won't be shocked at all. Seems like a lou pick.

Devils731 05-03-2011 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saugus (Post 32842290)
That's a very interesting article, and that's what I was referring to in the previous thread. The fact the Couturier is several months older and Huberdeau has the same stats favours Huberdeau.

But then you add in quality of teammates and I think Courtier ended up on top, despite the age gap. So if we'll use his engine to tell us the age factor then we need to use his engine to tell us the teammate factor too. At least when we discuss using his analysis.

Omar Little 05-03-2011 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saugus (Post 32842345)
Couturier is underrated as a playmaker. I think either he or Huberdeau would fit fine with Kovalchuk.

And I've said it before and I'll say it again, this organisation has had a history of success with Zajac type centres. I'd take a Zajac clone on this team any day.

Theyve also had success with Huberdeau esque players (Gomez in his prime) who complimented the Zajacs of their day.

Saugus 05-03-2011 12:28 PM

I think the teammate factor is a little overblown. Huberdeau is presumably going to have good linemates at the NHL level too. We're talking about putting him with Kovalchuk, after all. It's good that he can perform when played with talent.

Saugus 05-03-2011 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dennis Reynolds (Post 32842540)
Theyve also had success with Huberdeau esque players (Gomez in his prime) who complimented the Zajacs of their day.

I'm not sure Gomez is the best comparison for Huberdeau, but there is something to the fact that Gomez was more of a purely offensive player.

Huberdeau is much more of a two-way centre. Out of our Cup winning centres, I think Nieuwendyk actually might be the best comparison for Huberdeau. And Couturier is Arnott with better defence.

Devils731 05-03-2011 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saugus (Post 32842623)
I think the teammate factor is a little overblown. Huberdeau is presumably going to have good linemates at the NHL level too. We're talking about putting him with Kovalchuk, after all. It's good that he can perform when played with talent.

Well if we discount one part of the model then his whole model would fall apart, I believe, since I would imagine it's all interlinked.

Obviously older guys will put up more points and a player playing with Wayne Gretzky will put up more points, this guy was trying to model both, and other things I'm sure, at the same time so there is a lot of static between just those two variables.

It's figuring out the how much each matters that is hard.

CFD 05-03-2011 12:33 PM

Having another Zajac is fine, but I want a center who can play with an edge and distribute the puck. We all know that Zajac and "edge" are never mentioned in the same breath.

Jaysfanatic* 05-03-2011 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clarkson Falls Down (Post 32842717)
Having another Zajac is fine, but I want a center who can play with an edge and distribute the puck. We all know that Zajac and "edge" are never mentioned in the same breath.

Except for when Letang, which is french for.......the tang, is involved.

Omar Little 05-03-2011 12:35 PM

Gomez's defensive ability is underrated. He was fine defensively, his ability to create is sorely missing in this lineup. Kovy, Elias, and Parise are the only players in our lineup (Tedenby soon enough) are the only people to create chances out of nothing. Look at the flyers (Giroux, Briere, Richards, Carter, Leino) We need more offensive creativity or otherwise we become to predictable an offense.

Saugus 05-03-2011 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clarkson Falls Down (Post 32842717)
Having another Zajac is fine, but I want a center who can play with an edge and distribute the puck. We all know that Zajac and "edge" are never mentioned in the same breath.

From what I've seen and read about them, Couturier is a bit more physical and tough, and Huberdeau is faster and the better playmaker.


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