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-   -   Speculation: Karlsson's next contract? (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=915896)

Mercurial 05-20-2011 09:09 AM

Karlsson's next contract?
 
His ELC contract expires at the end of next year, so I would think Murray would be starting to think about this soon. I believe he has 5 more years before he becomes a UFA (end of 15/16), he'll hit the 7 years before he's 27.

What kind of term do you offer; 3, 5, 7, 10, 15? Obviously buying UFA years will cost more now.

Just wondering what people thought. 3 years at $3 to 4M per? Or something like Keith's 13 years $72M (~5.5M per)?

WWYD?

Ghost in the Shell 05-20-2011 09:16 AM

Depending on how he does this season, anywhere from 3.0-4.5M on a 10yr deal.

EJsens1 05-20-2011 09:18 AM

Personally, I'd play out the year and see where he goes. We don't need to worry about a team trying an offersheet as we aren't near the cap, so we can match.
Also, this is the last year of the CBA I think. Maybe the UFA age will change again, so we need to be careful. I'm not against long term deals, but Murray hasn't shown he'll sign anyone to a ten year plus contract to this point, which has proven to be a good move based on how the team ended up the last couple years.

SenzZen 05-20-2011 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trigun (Post 33144842)
Depending on how he does this season, anywhere from 3.0-4.5M on a 10yr deal.

Why would you not want to sign him?...

Definitely in the vicinity of Keith's contract. We've never had a player like this coming off an ELC. Actually- we've just flat out never had a player like this. Have to lock him down.

The Fuhr* 05-20-2011 09:38 AM

8Yrs 35 million

Structured like this
3.0
3.0
3.0
4.25
4.25
5.75
5.75
6.0

4.375 cap hit

That be a pretty cool deal if it could be done.

The Turret 05-20-2011 09:39 AM

anything over 4 and under 5 for lifetime would be cool by me :)

Northern Neighbour 05-20-2011 09:51 AM

I think Karlsson will be looking for a shorter-term deal so that he can cash again later. I think he'll end signing for 3 years at $12M.

koreaboy 05-20-2011 09:54 AM

duncan keith??! are you serious with that??! look, i like EK a lot, but cmon. he aint duncan keith yet, not by a longshot. if murray starts throwing keith-esque money at him this year, he should be shot.

EK is a core player down the road and i can see going long term on him. if we could get him for 8-10 years at an average of $4-4.5mil i would jump at it. but i can see why EK wouldnt do that. offensive defencemen make a ton of cash, EK and his agents know that, so they might be very reluctant to lock in lots of UFA years at a relatively low number.

if we had to go north of $5mil on a deal above 5 years, i wouldnt be happy.

SenzZen 05-20-2011 09:57 AM

Yeah great. Let's let him hit UFA in his prime over a matter of $500-800k/year :shakehead

koreaboy 05-20-2011 10:02 AM

no, we don't pay 800Kx 8-10 years too much for him. you don't just dismiss $6-8mil as insignificant, and you have to watch how your salaries are scaled. if you pay one guy too much, how do you not pay everyone else too much?

to run an NHL team, you can fall in love with your own players and screw yourself by overpaying them. you can't. we live in a salary cap era and you have to carefully manage your cap. i'm sorry, but a 22-year old EK is probably not going to be worth anywhere near a $5mil+ cap hit.

mikey 05-20-2011 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mercurial (Post 33144765)
His ELC contract expires at the end of next year, so I would think Murray would be starting to think about this soon. I believe he has 5 more years before he becomes a UFA (end of 15/16), he'll hit the 7 years before he's 27.

What kind of term do you offer; 3, 5, 7, 10, 15? Obviously buying UFA years will cost more now.

Just wondering what people thought. 3 years at $3 to 4M per? Or something like Keith's 13 years $72M (~5.5M per)?

WWYD?

Either long term, like 10 years at a reasonable price OR a contract to take him to his second last year of RFA, and then lock him up long term.

I'd go with the latter.

mikey 05-20-2011 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Fuhr (Post 33145140)
8Yrs 35 million

Structured like this
3.0
3.0
3.0
4.25
4.25
5.75
5.75
6.0

4.375 cap hit

That be a pretty cool deal if it could be done.

That works well.

I'd re-structure the numbers a bit, a bit less at the begining and spread it evenly through the 4.25-6.00... but thats just me.

Kickabrat 05-20-2011 10:28 AM

I don't think the Sens or Karlsson will want to negotiate a new contract until the new CBA is done. Too many variables that could affect a long term contract may be in play in the new CBA. I suspect nothing gets done other than preliminary talks. Sens and Karlsson both know he's coming due for a big contract. No need to rush.

SenzZen 05-20-2011 10:31 AM

Who said anything about $6-8M?

But since you brought those numbers up- that's likely what a 28-30 year-old Karlsson would be looking at on the open market.

The only thing stopping Murray locking him up for the long haul at $5-5.5/year is Karlsson wanting less term. In that case you don't give him a contract with that cap-hit- you go for the ~$3-3.5M range.

From the age of 22 on, Keith put up point totals of 21, 31, 32, and 44 before breaking out with 69 in his (RFA) contract year. A 19 year old Karlsson scored 26 in 60GP and then 45 in 75GP.

25 year old Keith scored 6pts in his first 17 playoff games. 19 year old Karlsson scored 6pts in his first 6 playoff games.

Afro Thunder* 05-20-2011 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by koreaboy (Post 33145449)
no, we don't pay 800Kx 8-10 years too much for him. you don't just dismiss $6-8mil as insignificant, and you have to watch how your salaries are scaled. if you pay one guy too much, how do you not pay everyone else too much?

to run an NHL team, you can fall in love with your own players and screw yourself by overpaying them. you can't. we live in a salary cap era and you have to carefully manage your cap. i'm sorry, but a 22-year old EK is probably not going to be worth anywhere near a $5mil+ cap hit.

WTF you talking about, Karlsson is already miles ahead of what Keith was when he was 20 years old and has the potential of being better than Keith when he's at his age.

BonkTastic 05-20-2011 10:44 AM

15 year deal, $4.5 mil per year, and hope Karlsson doesn't blow his hip out.

:sarcasm:

TSA0402 05-20-2011 10:46 AM

a) I'd like to Karlsson do at least one more year(or half year) before declaring him King Karlsson and trying to sign him to a Keith contract.

b) At his age, his agent will probably advise a three or four year deal so he can cash in at his prime.

Northern Neighbour 05-20-2011 11:21 AM

You cannot just look at offensive production when comparing Keith and Karlsson. While Karlsson is much further along in terms of offensive production, Keith at the same age was miles ahead of Karlsson on the defensive end.

The Waffler 05-20-2011 11:28 AM

10 yrs 100 million deal

He's the king!

SixthSens 05-20-2011 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Fuhr (Post 33145140)
8Yrs 35 million

Structured like this
3.0
3.0
3.0
4.25
4.25
5.75
5.75
6.0

4.375 cap hit

That be a pretty cool deal if it could be done.

I'd love for Murray to get EK inked to a deal like that. Fair terms for both sides IMO. That or if they go the short term route I could see EK signing a 2 year, $5.2M deal ala Erik Johnson.

TSA0402 05-20-2011 11:38 AM

I see a 2-3 year 3.5-4 million deal since he is still RFA but I'd love if they can get him for 10 years at a about a 4 million cap hit. He would be CRAZY to take that.

HSF 05-20-2011 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Fuhr (Post 33145140)
8Yrs 35 million

Structured like this
3.0
3.0
3.0
4.25
4.25
5.75
5.75
6.0

4.375 cap hit

That be a pretty cool deal if it could be done.

i agree with this. he will be a staple on our defense for years

The Mars Volchenkov 05-20-2011 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Northern Neighbour (Post 33146556)
You cannot just look at offensive production when comparing Keith and Karlsson. While Karlsson is much further along in terms of offensive production, Keith at the same age was miles ahead of Karlsson on the defensive end.

Keith wasn't even in the NHL at Karlsson's age, so how would you know? Norfolk Admirals fan? Keith didn't hit the NHL until he was 22. Karlsson will have 3 full seasons under his belt by then.

Keith's first few years in the NHL were bumpy. Chicago fans will tell you that. It wasn't until he turned 25 or so that he got it together.

Pitlick* 05-20-2011 12:07 PM

15 years, $44 million.

DonthaveaCOWEN 05-20-2011 12:33 PM

15 years, $44 million.


LOL you think Karlsson will take just under 3 mill a season


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