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-   -   is the Stafford deal the Kosty deal ? (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=921593)

onemorecup* 06-05-2011 02:19 PM

is the Stafford deal the Kosty deal ?
 
I think his agent will use the 16/4 as the starting point

IMHO 4 mil is too much and I would look to move him ...way too inconsistent for my liking

Stafford is a solid power forward and I would take him over Kosty any day of the week

Thoughts ?

EveryDay 06-05-2011 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by geeman (Post 33430707)
I think his agent will use the 16/4 as the starting point

IMHO 4 mil is too much and I would look to move him ...way too inconsistent for my liking

Stafford is a solid power forward and I would take him over Kosty any day of the week

Thoughts ?

Stafford is not a power forward.....and when was the last time AK scores 30G and have a .50 GG?

AK will be happy to get the same contract .... 6M for 2 years, not much more..

RoyBoyCoy 06-05-2011 02:33 PM

4mil is definitely on the steep end. I think he's worth 3.0-3.5, so 4 wouldn't be that big of an overpayment. However, Stafford's contract really has no effect on Kostitsyn, different players, different situations.

It's a shame that Martin kept throwing him to the wolves (read Gomez), seemingly everytime he was heating up.

ATM line is dynamite, but Gomez is terrible.... Solution: Break up ATM, give him Kostitsyn
Kostitsyn thriving on Eller's wing, but Gomez is terrible.... Solution: Give him Kostitsyn

So frustrating, because he could have put up a LOT more points had he stayed with Cammy and Pleks.

The Kremelin Wall* 06-05-2011 02:35 PM

I'd sign him to that as a "gamble". Cap goes up every year and he has chemistry with Pleks and Eller, so why risk going after a lesser player who we don't know will mesh?

Des Louise 06-05-2011 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RoyBoyCoy (Post 33430876)
4mil is definitely on the steep end. I think he's worth 3.0-3.5, so 4 wouldn't be that big of an overpayment. However, Stafford's contract really has no effect on Kostitsyn, different players, different situations.

It's a shame that Martin kept throwing him to the wolves (read Gomez), seemingly everytime he was heating up.

ATM line is dynamite, but Gomez is terrible.... Solution: Break up ATM, give him Kostitsyn
Kostitsyn thriving on Eller's wing, but Gomez is terrible.... Solution: Give him Kostitsyn

So frustrating, because he could have put up a LOT more points had he stayed with Cammy and Pleks.

So true. Poor AK really suffered from all the line juggling. Really wish Martin had a bit more of a clue how to produce offense 5v5 with the roster he has.

newtown33 06-05-2011 03:16 PM

Stafford put up 31 goals in 62 games...AK never had these numbers.

However, I actually like AK and think Martin is not using him properly. I would give him a slight raise, something like 3.75 per year.

Qui Gon Dave 06-05-2011 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RoyBoyCoy (Post 33430876)
4mil is definitely on the steep end. I think he's worth 3.0-3.5, so 4 wouldn't be that big of an overpayment. However, Stafford's contract really has no effect on Kostitsyn, different players, different situations.

I agree with your evaluation on what AK may be worth come his next contract but in my mind these two players have always been fairly similar in terms of what their teams would primarily expect of them.

From their days of trading highlight reel plays in the AHL when the Dogs and Amerks would meet, they'd both be looked to in order to create offense and control the play. And boy, could they both do that. They both made it into the NHL at a similar time where again their skills are looked to and if I'm not mistaken, both fanbases have at times been left underwhelmed by their contributions.

Yet they have both played a similar number of games (AK has played 326, 9 more than DS) while DS has 94g, 102a compared to AKs 87g and 99a in the regular season. In the playoffs, AK has a slight advantage with 11g, 8a in 41 games compared to Staffords 3g, 4a in 20 games.

Stafford should probably have the better contract as his best season has just happened, at a time when the cap is higher than it was when AK got his current contract off the back of his best season, but it is close as you said. As players however, I think they are fairly comparable. Similar age, games played, points, gwgs, etc. Statistically, DS may be a bit better defensively while AK throws quite a few more hits. Both players have some size and are on their teams to provide scoring and have both come through the ranks of their current organizations.

Roulin 06-05-2011 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by newtown33 (Post 33431547)
Stafford put up 31 goals in 62 games...AK never had these numbers.

Neither had Stafford, until he put up an unsustainable 17.3 shooting %. His career average 13.2% would have brought him down to 24 goals, a number I think is more representative of his level of play. That's also in Kostitsyn's range.

Roke 06-05-2011 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roulin (Post 33432994)
Neither had Stafford, until he put up an unsustainable 17.3 shooting %. His career average 13.2% would have brought him down to 24 goals, a number I think is more representative of his level of play. That's also in Kostitsyn's range.

It also helps that on average Stafford played against much easier opposition and started a higher percentage of his shifts in the offensive zone.

Goals/Assists/Points totals need to be put in context by being aware of how a player was used and shooting percentage (both personal and team) for them to be of any use in evaluation or analysis.

newtown33 06-05-2011 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roulin (Post 33432994)
Neither had Stafford, until he put up an unsustainable 17.3 shooting %. His career average 13.2% would have brought him down to 24 goals, a number I think is more representative of his level of play. That's also in Kostitsyn's range.

I agree with you and I don't think Stafford will have the same impact this year. IMO Stafford and AK are in the similar production bracket...around 25 goals and 25 assists. These numbers are worth around 4 millions on the market...

Ozymandias 06-05-2011 05:09 PM

Last time AK signed a contract, it was the same exact story. ONE player signed something like 4,5 and everybody thought AK was going to get 4,5.

There are a lot more comparatives than Stafford, who is a bad comparative, as he is younger, less experienced and doesn't have a bad reputation yet, contrarily to AK.

A good comparative is Frolov, and he didn't get much, and AK won't get much.

Ak won't even get near 4 years, as the Habs will give him the Plex treatment. One season, if he does better, then they'll sign him long term.

I swear, people on this board jump to conclusions so easily.

I wonder if you're all gonna quit using your mobiles now that cell phones have been officially put on the level of "might be cancerous"...

Roulin 06-05-2011 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ozymandias (Post 33433184)
There are a lot more comparatives than Stafford, who is a bad comparative, as he is younger, less experienced and doesn't have a bad reputation yet, contrarily to AK.

Birthday
AK - Feb 1985
DS - Oct 1985

Games Played
AK - 326
DS - 317

Close enough for me. IMO the OP has a case, at least as far as the two players being comparable.

EveryDay 06-05-2011 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ozymandias (Post 33433184)
Last time AK signed a contract, it was the same exact story. ONE player signed something like 4,5 and everybody thought AK was going to get 4,5.

There are a lot more comparatives than Stafford, who is a bad comparative, as he is younger, less experienced and doesn't have a bad reputation yet, contrarily to AK.

A good comparative is Frolov, and he didn't get much, and AK won't get much.

Ak won't even get near 4 years, as the Habs will give him the Plex treatment. One season, if he does better, then they'll sign him long term.I swear, people on this board jump to conclusions so easily.

I wonder if you're all gonna quit using your mobiles now that cell phones have been officially put on the level of "might be cancerous"...


Will that put him in the UFA next year?

LeMAD 06-05-2011 06:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monaco88 (Post 33433933)
Will that put him in the UFA next year?

Yeah, so what?

BLNY 06-05-2011 06:32 PM

I'll take draft picks for $200 Alex.

If his agent makes even a remote overture for that sort of contract, he'll hear the click of the phone as PG hangs up. If another team wants to offer that, they can have him and I'll take the picks - a first and a third. Thing is, I don't think teams will be lining up to make offers.

EveryDay 06-05-2011 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeMAD (Post 33434001)
Yeah, so what?


so u like the gamble of losing him for nothing next summer?
20-25 goal scorer with more then 100 hits are hard to find in MTL ....

PG need to give him a 2-3 year deal this summer

newtown33 06-05-2011 06:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monaco88 (Post 33434107)
so u like the gamble of losing him for nothing next summer?
20-25 goal scorer with more then 100 hits are hard to find in MTL ....

PG need to give him a 2-3 year deal this summer

Exactly! I think it's funny how people keep bashing AK and then would like to overpay for a 25 goals scorer on the UFA market

He's RFA, so you have to give him a slight raise. Forget these 2.5 - 3 millions deals, he'll get around 3,75 IMO

Ozymandias 06-05-2011 07:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monaco88 (Post 33434107)
so u like the gamble of losing him for nothing next summer?
20-25 goal scorer with more then 100 hits are hard to find in MTL ....

PG need to give him a 2-3 year deal this summer

That's exactly what the Habs did with Plex, a far less inconsistent player. It's not a question of what you or me or others like. It's what the Habs will probably do.

HCH 06-05-2011 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monaco88 (Post 33430817)
Stafford is not a power forward.....and when was the last time AK scores 30G and have a .50 GG?

AK will be happy to get the same contract .... 6M for 2 years, not much more..

I don't think you can offer less than what he is receiving now without triggering UFA status. Maybe someone can shed some light on this.

HCH 06-05-2011 07:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BLNY (Post 33434105)
I'll take draft picks for $200 Alex.

If his agent makes even a remote overture for that sort of contract, he'll hear the click of the phone as PG hangs up. If another team wants to offer that, they can have him and I'll take the picks - a first and a third. Thing is, I don't think teams will be lining up to make offers.

I would bet a lot of teams would like Kosty. I don't think PG would have the same reaction as you would have... a first and a third is a gamble and likely wouldn't pay dividends for five years, if ever.

If we give up on Kosty, we need someone who can help us now and not in five years. That approach would keep us on the treadmill of mediocrity.

crazyd 06-05-2011 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HCH (Post 33435079)
I don't think you can offer less than what he is receiving now without triggering UFA status. Maybe someone can shed some light on this.

10% of what he is making now is the qualifying offer.

So 3.25 + (3.25 * 0.10) = 3,575.

Give him $3.6M. That's it, that's all. And he is evenly priced.

I would also sign him for one year only as I think his salary can be spread after that to sign Eller and other low 6 players that will be up for new contracts.

neofury* 06-06-2011 09:00 AM

I love both players but I'd take Stafford @ 4 mil over AK @ 3 mil even though I love AK. Stafford can be a game breaker. He's actually more inconsistent than Andrei though so maybe I wouldn't. You know 21 of his goals were in 7 games right? He had 7 hat tricks as I recall. (Might have been less but still...)

FrankMTL 06-06-2011 09:10 AM

I'm torn in regards to AK. Yes he can score goals, and he does hit..but half the time he's on another planet and looks lost out there. One of the most frustrating players to watch. I wouldn't pay him 4 million, but thats just me. With what he gives, I would give him another year or two at the same salary. I wouldn't give him over two years though, and I would prefer he only signs a one year deal.

Analyzer* 06-06-2011 09:54 AM

I think Stafford got what he did because he average a goal every 2 games, or close to it this past season.

Carey Commit 06-06-2011 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HCH (Post 33435079)
I don't think you can offer less than what he is receiving now without triggering UFA status. Maybe someone can shed some light on this.

I think the only way is to elect salary arbitration and even then I THINK he can only go down by 15%.


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