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-   -   The Official Scott Gomez Thread part Cuatro - Rancho Relaxo Edition (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=955899)

overlords 07-22-2011 11:27 AM

The Official Scott Gomez Thread part Cuatro - Rancho Relaxo Edition
 
continue!

Em Ancien 07-22-2011 11:28 AM

One-dimensional offensive player with lackluster effort.

/thread

This ought to get a rise out of a few people

shutehinside 07-22-2011 11:35 AM

Gomez will have a come back year and score 60+ points. If not, he's gone by trade deadline.

Boris Le Tigre 07-22-2011 11:43 AM

Gomez and Kovalev.... they both aged the same way:

let's try to skate through every body... slam on the brakes at the blue line and throw a pass out there... maybe turn the pcuk over.

This guy hasn't been near the net in the offensive zone since 2006.

I am exaggerating here ... so please exercise restraing before people come on here and try to rationalize his bad play and call me a dumpty.

I hope Gomez will get dirty and want to win next year... but dude makes 8 million dollars and is already showing a double chin. I hope his pride is incentive enough.

overlords 07-22-2011 11:43 AM

I'm taking suggestions for the name of the thread.

You! That's right, you can be the one to name this edition of the gomez thread. Send your suggestions by PM to Overlords who evidently has way too much time on his hands.

MathMan 07-22-2011 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DAChampion (Post 35274089)
How do you think it works assuming players are a valid statistical test (which in reality they're not).

I just assumed Poisson noise on points.

With p = points/games? And n = games?

That gives you a n under 100. That's really tiny. Not to mention that points/game is not a binary probability.

Actually it would seem to me that p = goals/shots would make more sense.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DAChampion (Post 35274089)
Can you give me some references to this work on shooting percentages?

Trying to find some, but most of the stats sites are either blogs or chart sites, and they don't have a convenient reference or indeed much of an index. And this is such a settled question that there's a cash prize contest for someone who can demonstrate that teams have a talent to influence shot quality:
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/...-quality-prize

This one is pretty good; it compares first half to the season to second half at the team level, but the same applies to individual players (especially their team's shooting percentage while they are on the ice):
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2009/...229/dont-panic

I'll see if I can find more.

Pierre Dagenais 07-22-2011 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shutehinside (Post 35274791)
Gomez will have a come back year and score 60+ points. If not, he's gone by trade deadline.

I doubt he gets traded at the deadline since we will be in a playoff race. In the offseason, maybe.

DAChampion 07-22-2011 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MathMan (Post 35275247)
With p = points/games? And n = games?

That gives you a n under 100. That's really tiny. Not to mention that points/game is not a binary probability.

Actually it would seem to me that p = goals/shots would make more sense.

If he has 42 points, the 68% confidence interval is 6.4 points.
Points per game is just something converges faster. 42/87 = 0.48 ppg with an error of 0.07 ppg.
However, if he had 420 points over 870 games, the error on 420 would be 20.4, and the ppg would be 0.48 with an error of 0.02 ppg.

The probability I'm assuming is time to number of points. Gomez took about 1.8 games to get a point. Every 1.8 games, he gets 1 point, that's poisson.


Quote:

Originally Posted by MathMan (Post 35275247)
Trying to find some, but most of the stats sites are either blogs or chart sites, and they don't have a convenient reference or indeed much of an index. And this is such a settled question that there's a cash prize contest for someone who can demonstrate that teams have a talent to influence shot quality:
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/...-quality-prize

This one is pretty good; it compares first half to the season to second half at the team level, but the same applies to individual players (especially their team's shooting percentage while they are on the ice):
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2009/...229/dont-panic

I'll see if I can find more.

Thanks for the links, I'll read them later this evening.

didouche 07-22-2011 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by overlords (Post 35275047)
I'm taking suggestions for the name of the thread.

You! That's right, you can be the one to name this edition of the gomez thread. Send your suggestions by PM to Overlords who evidently has way too much time on his hands.

what were the other ones called before the siesta edition?

I would go with Pride of Alaska edition

MathMan 07-22-2011 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DAChampion (Post 35275729)
Thanks for the links, I'll read them later this evening.

You might also find this of interest:

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2010/...s-one-true-and

Miller Time 07-22-2011 12:34 PM

Best Case:
his ego/pride seriously affected after last year, he has the best off-season of his life, spends time watching old videos from his best days in NJ, and remembers what it was like to actually "be" the man as opposed to just being paid like the man, and desperately wants to be that kind of impact player again... believes he can do it and is determined to show that it wasn't just riding on other players coat tails.
puts up ppg pace, while playing like an elite playmaking centre, making his linemates better and boosting the entire offense by preventing teams from concentrating on Plek's line.

Worst Case:
he has the same kind of epiphany, works his butt off, then comes out flat nonetheless. Confidence gets shattered, excuses take over, media/fans get on his case as he stumbles through the first half as bad or worse than last year... requests if not demands a trade, but PG's unable to find a suitor, situation gets ugly and becomes a distraction.


Most likely:
comes to camp in good shape, starts the season well enough, puts up points riding on wingers & Markov's coattails, production is enough to keep boo-birds at bay, he's content to be a 50-60pt player and the team does well enough and media/fans tolerate his lopsided salary-cap hit vs. contributions. PG finds a willing team to take his contract in the off-season, or even at the deadline if Eller is playing well enough & he gets a strong enough offer.



as skeptical as I am that Gomez could actually manage to pull off the "best case", as a fan that would be the absolute ideal...

imagine a 70-80pt Gomez, pushing both MaxPac/Gionta into the 30 goal range and indirectly boosting Pleks/Cammy's production, and allow Eller to thrive in a 3rd line role behind a lethal top 6... that would put us into the contender range of teams, and with all of our fwds locked up for a few years, keep us there.

it's probably a mistake to even think about how great that would be, but man oh man... imagine!

Cammy-Pleks- Cole
30 goals/ 65pts/ 25g-50pts

MaxPac-Gomez-Gionta
25goals/ 80pts/ 30 goals

DD- Eller- Kost
50pts/ 15g-45pts/ 25g-50pts

if we could get that kind of offensive production out of those 3 lines, with Pleks line playing the shut-down match-up role, and Martin's overall defensive scheme & Price playing @ top-5 level, we'd easily be challenging for the conference title and well stocked for a deep playoff run (assuming our defense stays healthy and PG adds 1 more top-4 type player).

as much as I dislike the fact that we traded for Gomez, IF he ever manages to play to his best potential with us, the impact would be profound.

Come on Scotty, make it happen like it's 2005!

shutehinside 07-22-2011 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre Dagenais (Post 35275413)
I doubt he gets traded at the deadline since we will be in a playoff race. In the offseason, maybe.

He was a bigger liability then a leader during the PO's last year. it would also show he's reached his limit in Montreal and prove he won't be much good come crunch time. If he does struggle and we keep him past the trade deadline, I doubt it's from lack of trying.

shamrun 07-22-2011 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Humpty Dumpty (Post 35275009)
Gomez and Kovalev.... they both aged the same way:

let's try to skate through every body... slam on the brakes at the blue line and throw a pass out there... maybe turn the pcuk over.

This guy hasn't been near the net in the offensive zone since 2006.

I am exaggerating here ... so please exercise restraing before people come on here and try to rationalize his bad play and call me a dumpty.

I hope Gomez will get dirty and want to win next year... but dude makes 8 million dollars and is already showing a double chin. I hope his pride is incentive enough.

I partially agree but kovalev found his niche on the pp while gomez is still trying to justify his ice time. I was hoping this past season that he would become a pk beast but his inability at winning faceoffs and poor defensive coverage was awful. Anyways ill just write this past season as a junction of bad luck/injuries/confidence. This season he needs to prove a lot. A productive gomez (offensive, defensive) helps the habs a lot.

I dont fully buy into "the out of shape" idea. He was flying on the ice. I think his problem is all upstairs.

Lafleurs Guy 07-22-2011 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Em Ancien (Post 35274539)
One-dimensional offensive player with lackluster effort.

/thread

You forgot 'unlucky'.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miller Time (Post 35276813)
Best Case:
his ego/pride seriously affected after last year, he has the best off-season of his life, spends time watching old videos from his best days in NJ, and remembers what it was like to actually "be" the man as opposed to just being paid like the man, and desperately wants to be that kind of impact player again... believes he can do it and is determined to show that it wasn't just riding on other players coat tails.
puts up ppg pace, while playing like an elite playmaking centre, making his linemates better and boosting the entire offense by preventing teams from concentrating on Plek's line.

Worst Case:
he has the same kind of epiphany, works his butt off, then comes out flat nonetheless. Confidence gets shattered, excuses take over, media/fans get on his case as he stumbles through the first half as bad or worse than last year... requests if not demands a trade, but PG's unable to find a suitor, situation gets ugly and becomes a distraction.


Most likely:
comes to camp in good shape, starts the season well enough, puts up points riding on wingers & Markov's coattails, production is enough to keep boo-birds at bay, he's content to be a 50-60pt player and the team does well enough and media/fans tolerate his lopsided salary-cap hit vs. contributions. PG finds a willing team to take his contract in the off-season, or even at the deadline if Eller is playing well enough & he gets a strong enough offer.

Pretty muc how I think it will go except I don't see Gomez going away. We can all dream I guess though.

Em Ancien 07-22-2011 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy (Post 35277467)
You forgot 'unlucky'.

You cut out the best part.

But players make their luck. Scoring is inconsistent and relies on too many variables for a player to be a shoe-in for any type of season. It's all about dedication, work ethic and hustling on D, which can all be consistent and produce immediate results on limiting chances against and creating chances the other way. Gomez lacks all 3 since he's come to Montreal (or actually since he signed that contract).

couris 07-22-2011 01:17 PM

Gomez is washed up. Weak physically and has a shot worst than Koivu. (little girl shot)

Paul Dipietro 07-22-2011 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by couris (Post 35278397)
Gomez is washed up. Weak physically and has a shot worst than Koivu. (little girl shot)

Hasn't Gomez been able to slap the heck out of the puck once in a while (or was I just seeing things)? A shame he can't do it on a more regular basis

bcv 07-22-2011 01:47 PM

The papichulo edition

habsjunkie2* 07-22-2011 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul Dipietro (Post 35278611)
Hasn't Gomez been able to slap the heck out of the puck once in a while (or was I just seeing things)? A shame he can't do it on a more regular basis

I think he has the weakest shot of any top 6 player in the league.

tigerman111 07-22-2011 01:48 PM

Chimichanga edition

Roke 07-22-2011 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul Dipietro (Post 35278611)
Hasn't Gomez been able to slap the heck out of the puck once in a while (or was I just seeing things)? A shame he can't do it on a more regular basis

I don't think so. I also don't think he can do it while in motion, which when he's the puck's personal chauffeur through the neutral zone doesn't help.

Starting with his second-last season in New Jersey Gomez was shooting from pretty much everywhere and, given his weak shot, that wasn't a great positive (though at least his team had the puck in the offensive zone, preventing goals). His shot-taking has gone down since coming to Montreal but last I checked (middle of last season I think) his linemates are shooting more to make up for that gap. Given Gomez' craptacular shot that is not a bad thing for the Habs.

Paul Dipietro 07-22-2011 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 (Post 35279543)
I think he has the weakest shot of any top 6 player in the league.

I agree about the subdued I-don't-want-to-hurt-my-son-that's-playing-in-nets shots but once in a while he seems to be able to blast one away. Nevermind then

Zorba 07-22-2011 01:56 PM

[QUOTE=couris;35278397]Gomez is washed up. Weak physically and has a shot worst than Koivu. (little girl shot)[/QUOTE

I dont know is he is washed up but has for sure lost a step and can no longer be a go to guy. His physical play is non existent and his defensive play over the lat 2 years has gone downhill dramatically. I dont expect much from him anymore. Im praying he can return to his mediocre 60 pt play but I dont think its possible. If he cant produce offensively its not a lot to ask for him not to be a minus 15

MathMan 07-22-2011 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zorba (Post 35279803)
If he cant produce offensively its not a lot to ask for him not to be a minus 15

And yet... his not producing offensively is actually the very reason he's -15.

Once more with feeling: plus/minus is not a defensive stat. It's an outscoring stat. It says so right there in the name. Plus. Minus.

He's been on the ice for a number of goals comparable to Plekanec. He's a minus because he has no plusses, not because he's on the ice for too many goals against.

bcv 07-22-2011 02:07 PM

[QUOTE=Zorba;35279803]
Quote:

Originally Posted by couris (Post 35278397)
Gomez is washed up. Weak physically and has a shot worst than Koivu. (little girl shot)[/QUOTE

I dont know is he is washed up but has for sure lost a step and can no longer be a go to guy. His physical play is non existent and his defensive play over the lat 2 years has gone downhill dramatically. I dont expect much from him anymore. Im praying he can return to his mediocre 60 pt play but I dont think its possible. If he cant produce offensively its not a lot to ask for him not to be a minus 15

Mediocre 60pts play? A guy that puts up 60pts is mediocre? OK, only good players in the league must Crosby and Sedins..


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