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-   -   News Article: Canadian team preview: The Montreal Canadiens (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=969855)

MooseOllini 08-17-2011 01:25 AM

Canadian team preview: The Montreal Canadiens
 
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...rticle2129885/

James Myrtle, Globe and Mail



Great analysis by him. Predicts the Habs 5th in the east. Totally agree with what he has to say.

Talks to Goalposts 08-17-2011 02:12 AM

Good choice in tapping Oliver as the blogger. His is the best one out there for my money.

costathing 08-17-2011 02:18 AM

30in30 can go to **** thats what I call a effin nice preview on a team clever people who really wacth game:handclap:

didouche 08-17-2011 05:44 AM

Wasn't this already posted???

macavoy 08-17-2011 09:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts (Post 35987799)
Good choice in tapping Oliver as the blogger. His is the best one out there for my money.

lol is that mathman?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts (Post 35987799)
For a few thoughts on what’s in store for the Habs this coming season, here’s Olivier Bouchard from En attendant les Nordiques with reasons for optimism, pessimism and a midsummer prediction as to how they’ll finish.

Reasons for optimism:

"Luck and better depth for the forwards. They had crappy shooting luck at even strength last year, with Scott Gomez and Lars Eller being the poster boys. The team out shot and out chanced the opposition whenever one of those two were on the ice and this will continue next season; Gomez will 'bounce back' if only because rotten luck doesn't stick around forever. As for depth, well, take the playoff roster and replace Halpern and Pouliot/Pyatt with Max Pacioretty and Cole and count on Eller and David Desharnais's continuing progress. All of that should do wonder to their 5 on 5 goal differential."

or is Oliver buying into mathman's agenda

Habs 08-17-2011 09:16 AM

Wait what? Love for the guy that predicts the Habs finish higher than 8th? Shocking!

bcv 08-17-2011 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Habs (Post 35990773)
Wait what? Love for the guy that predicts the Habs finish higher than 8th? Shocking!

That's because the Habs will finish higher than 8th.

RBR 08-17-2011 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bcv (Post 35991399)
That's because the Habs will finish higher than 8th.

If Phoenix could make the playoffs last year with their roster or Nashville could finish 5th with theirs, the Canadiens can definitely finish higher than 8th considering the much better offensive depth. It's not like the team lacks goaltending or an organized system. Consider that the East is a less competitive conference and it's perfectly plausible.

neofury* 08-17-2011 10:32 AM

We will finish 5th or above book it and remember because you won't get the opportunity to make me eat crow I'm that confident. Just because a lot of people are pessimistic doesn't make our team bad. Those people have been pessimists for years and have been wrong nearly every year about where we'll end up. (Even when they've been right after saying the same thing year after year you're bound to be right once or twice, we can't always be healthy) It's every damn season they say 8th place etc. We aren't an 8th place team.

Lafleurs Guy 08-17-2011 10:40 AM

Seems about right. Price is the only sure thing on this team but we have others (Subban, Markov) who could potentially be great too. I have us in 5th as well.

JimmyDarmody 08-17-2011 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Habs (Post 35990773)
Wait what? Love for the guy that predicts the Habs finish higher than 8th? Shocking!

Habs are predicted 8th: These guys are biased against us and clearly don't know what they're talking about.

Habs are predicted 5th: These guys are completely fair and balanced, what hockey geniuses.

brb bookmarking thread until the last week of the season when we're still clawing for the 8th seed.

PK76 08-17-2011 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JimmyDarmody (Post 35992513)
Habs are predicted 8th: These guys are biased against us and clearly don't know what they're talking about.

Habs are predicted 5th: These guys are completely fair and balanced, what hockey geniuses.

brb bookmarking thread until the last week of the season when we're still clawing for the 8th seed.

There might be only 2 or 3 points separating the 5th and 8th seed so it's not like it's an exact science. We're going to make the playoffs and I don't think we'll have to wait for the last couple of games of the season to confirm it.

Talks to Goalposts 08-17-2011 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by macavoy (Post 35990693)
lol is that mathman?

Oliver occasionally posts here as OliverB

Quote:

Originally Posted by macavoy (Post 35990693)
or is Oliver buying into mathman's agenda

You'd have to ask them but the two of them as well as some others including myself tend to come to the same conclusions because we look at the same data.

Joey 08-17-2011 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JimmyDarmody (Post 35992513)
Habs are predicted 8th: These guys are biased against us and clearly don't know what they're talking about.

Habs are predicted 5th: These guys are completely fair and balanced, what hockey geniuses.

brb bookmarking thread until the last week of the season when we're still clawing for the 8th seed.

No kidding lol I know this is a whiny and useless reply by me, but that mentality is what has pretty much made me go back from active poster to lurking reader. The opinions on here are like Jack in the Shining sometimes

Roke 08-17-2011 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by macavoy (Post 35990693)
lol is that mathman?



or is Oliver buying into mathman's agenda

Here's a response by a Canucks writer/blogger about the point on Gomez. Olivier may be a bit optimistic, but 35-40 even-strength points seems to be the reasonable estimate from people who look beyond the surface at the stats.

http://canucksarmy.com/2011/8/16/whe...-that-horrible

As I commented over there, I think Gomez may see a drop in PP time at the expense of Desharnais, which would contribute to another disappointing point total for Gomez again.

If he's around 40 even-strength points and the Habs' PP continues to do well with or without him, any PP points are a bonus as far as I'm concerned.

Bill McNeal 08-17-2011 12:31 PM

I'd say 5th is at the higher end of the prediction spectrum, but I think the East is going to be one giant cluster**** between 3rd and 9th this year, with very few points separating all of them.

I think Washington and Pittsburgh (if healthy) will win their divisions rather easily, and the remaining spots can go to any permutation of Boston, Buffalo, Montreal, Tampa Bay, New York, New Jersey, Philadelphia. Then you have underachievers and overachievers every year, so teams like Carolina and Toronto can be on that bubble.

Could be a stressful year.

HCH 08-17-2011 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roke (Post 35994835)
If he's around 40 even-strength points and the Habs' PP continues to do well with or without him, any PP points are a bonus as far as I'm concerned.

40 even-strength points is close to his career average. If Pacioretty can bail him out this year he has a chance of achieving that number... and that just might happen.

Achieving that total might be the result of riding on some else's coat tails rather than any improvement in his level of play. What was just as worrisome as the points total with Gomez was the lack of defensive responsibility. We need the 40 even strength point and we need a big turnaround in the plus/minus when he is on the ice.

nyhabsfan 08-17-2011 12:48 PM

Folks these are only predictions, there are so many variables that if you take this for more than it's intended entertainment value you really need to chill out.

Roke 08-17-2011 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HCH (Post 35995317)
40 even-strength points is close to his career average. If Pacioretty can bail him out this year he has a chance of achieving that number... and that just might happen.

Achieving that total might be the result of riding on some else's coat tails rather than any improvement in his level of play. What was just as worrisome as the points total with Gomez was the lack of defensive responsibility. We need the 40 even strength point and we need a big turnaround in the plus/minus when he is on the ice.

I disagree with the lack of defensive responsibility thing, though I view defense differently (puck possession + positioning being the most important things) than most do. If you look at the piece I linked, in terms of possession Gomez was bad in 2010 but bounced back in 2011 (Adj. Fenwick/G which is a shot metric adjusted based on zone-starts).

Positioning-wise he was a weak from my memory and of the high-level screwups I remember it was Gomez and Wisniewski both blowing coverage on a guy who should have been marked by one of them. The problem with memory is we focus too much on plays that resulted in goals rather than other plays though.

If whoever on Gomez wing can convert shots to goals at a rate an average NHLer does 35 even-strength points should be attainable. If they generate shots like The Pacioretty-Gomez-Gionta line did in their short time together last season, more is in the cards.

UniverStalinGraduate* 08-17-2011 12:56 PM

I think the Habs will finish 2nd in the conference.

Habs 08-17-2011 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JimmyDarmody (Post 35992513)
Habs are predicted 8th: These guys are biased against us and clearly don't know what they're talking about.

Habs are predicted 5th: These guys are completely fair and balanced, what hockey geniuses.

brb bookmarking thread until the last week of the season when we're still clawing for the 8th seed.

lol, so true. Are we allowed to bump the panic threads from last year, or the previous 9 years before that?

neofury* 08-17-2011 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joey (Post 35994491)
No kidding lol I know this is a whiny and useless reply by me, but that mentality is what has pretty much made me go back from active poster to lurking reader. The opinions on here are like Jack in the Shining sometimes

/rolleyes

Saying we'll be 5th when compared to 8th isn't ridiculous really. I don't see anyone saying we'll be 1st.

neofury* 08-17-2011 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HCH (Post 35995317)
40 even-strength points is close to his career average. If Pacioretty can bail him out this year he has a chance of achieving that number... and that just might happen.

Achieving that total might be the result of riding on some else's coat tails rather than any improvement in his level of play. What was just as worrisome as the points total with Gomez was the lack of defensive responsibility. We need the 40 even strength point and we need a big turnaround in the plus/minus when he is on the ice.

Since when is a pure playmaking center who barely ever scores goals not relying on others to produce though? We knew what we were getting with Gomer, it isn't that people think he'll bounce back that I find crazy. What I find crazy is the people who have some ridiculous expectation of Gomer being Joe Thornton. :laugh:

LePoche69 08-17-2011 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JimmyDarmody (Post 35992513)
Habs are predicted 8th: These guys are biased against us and clearly don't know what they're talking about.

Habs are predicted 5th: These guys are completely fair and balanced, what hockey geniuses.

brb bookmarking thread until the last week of the season when we're still clawing for the 8th seed.

You're totally right.

Funny thing is, there probably gonna be not more than 5-10 pts between the 5th and 8th position. So how come one of those predictions is absurd, or made by someone who doesn't watch hockey game?

Kriss E 08-17-2011 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by neofury (Post 35996773)
/rolleyes

Saying we'll be 5th when compared to 8th isn't ridiculous really. I don't see anyone saying we'll be 1st.

I think 1st will be tough because of the Caps. They're too good not to be expected to win the conference. But 2nd isn't out of the question imo. Obviously, everything would have to go right for us to get as high, or horribly wrong for others.


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