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-   -   Proposal: Value NYR-NJD blockbuster Stepan + Larsson as principals (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=971631)

bernmeister 08-20-2011 11:41 AM

Value NYR-NJD blockbuster Stepan + Larsson as principals
 
Thought I'd get some input before starting a new thread about this on the big board.

First, this is difficult because it is divisional rivals who hate each other, so that's why I emphasize "value of". I lean to this as an actual proposal otherwise, though I'd like some input on finalizing around the edges,

The base is step 1, a core of Stepan + MDZ for Larsen. Players may be added on either side to establish approximate equal value.
Rationale:
There is presently indication on the big board about Devils lack of depth at C, compounded by injury. Larsen was drafted to be replacement for Niedermayer. If Devs get bonafide value at C, and Del Zotto is enough to be a rushing/passing leader, NJ could fill 2 holes at once for one price, For the Rangers, the gamble, and it is a gamble, is that Larsen turns into the next Brian Leetch.

Value: MDZ was 1st rounder, I think 20 overall, could have been a little higher. Stepan drafted later has demonstrated 1st round + value. Larsen was drafted 4th but could have been 1st, some think he was best player in the draft.
MDZ + Stepan have demonstrated NHL level ability.
Larsen has not but is projected to be able to step in fairly soon.
Conclusion: on balance, potential and actual, consider this close, with slight overpayment by Rangers, which could change once Larsen shows how really good he really is --- by NHL standards.

Again, please advise what you think is fair equal value, as well as what offer would you make/do you think it would take?


The optional add on is step 2, a core of Girardi + Boyle + Talbot + Rangers 3rd in 2012 for Parise AS IS + Devils 2nd in 2012.
Parise is only committed to the one year, and can be UFA after this.

Players may be added on either side to establish approximate equal value.
Rationale:
Brodeur is on his last legs. Cam Talbot is bonafide G talent, and Rangers have depth there. Getting him now to study under Marty's tutoring is a valid factor.
Girardi provides depth at D, has real value.
Boyle is, give or take, 20 goals for a team that does not score.
Sure, if FOR CERTAIN Parise stays, that's a whole different picture.
But we don't know that for certain, and LL may not cough up enough $$$$$$ long term.
Devs have to think is this worth it now, or do I see what Parise brings as a rental at the deadline, which is both enhanced by the like desperation of a buyer for a Cup run, but which is also reduced by the fact you are getting him last minute --- assumes risk he is not injured before.

Rangers short term enhancing real Cup run, he'd fit 1st/2nd line with both Richards or Anisimov lines (depending upon whether or not Dubi was needed to provide added grit). Would be a gamble for NY beyond the one year, but we would be getting first crack at him.

Total revised roster if both happen
Parise -Richards - Gaborik
Dubi - AA - Cally
Rupp - Lindmark - Prust
Weise/Wolski EC Hagelin

Staal Larsen
McD - Sauer
Erixon Vtank
Eminger

Hank
Marty

Thoughts.........

Giacomin 08-20-2011 11:55 AM

This is why I hate the off season. Why should the Rangers help out the Devils. The Rangers are going to be stacked this year!

SMantzas 08-20-2011 12:02 PM

hahaha *LARSSON is worth way more than the healthy scratch/ AHLer MDZ and a possible second line player in Derek Stepan

Lion Hound 08-20-2011 12:09 PM

Pat 1 : Hate it.

Would rather have both players stay with the Rangers.

Part 2 : Do whatever you have to do to get Parise here. He could be the x-factor that get this Rangers team past the Penguanos, or the Caps...or the B's for that matter!

MacTruck 08-20-2011 12:09 PM

Oh boy.. Both of those values are pretty far off base, to be honest.

Also, who is this Tichards fella? Must be very good, because he has forced Richards out of the starting lineup. :sarcasm:

JeffMangum 08-20-2011 12:09 PM

Why would either team do this, or even contemplate it? It makes no sense, even in principal.

The Devils need a legitimate, two-way, top-4 defenseman — Larsson could be that as early as this season. Stepan/Del Zotto are certainly players that the Devils could benefit from acquiring, but not at the expense of their potential defensive backbone.

Also, the Devils just drafted him 4th overall, and signed him to an ELC. When was the last time a top-5 pick was traded, what, 2 months after he was drafted?

From a Rangers perspective, why do they need Larsson? He would obviously be a fantastic addition, but this seems to be a case of trading just to trade. The organization already has McDonagh, Sauer, Staal, Girardi, Erixon, Del Zotto, Valentenko, and McIlrath in the organization. Aside from Valentenko, those players are/project to be top-4 defenseman. If Larsson was an offensive dynamo, it would make more sense, but the Rangers have plenty of unspectacular two-way defenseman. Of course, you can never have too many of those types, but there is no need. Taking away Stepan weakens the overall center depth, which is fantastic as it stands — it's probably the most deep and versatile group of centerman the Rangers have had since the lockout. Center depth wins you games in this league, and while the same applies to defense, the Rangers are already deep at that position.

Trading Del Zotto creates a HUGE hole in the organization, as he's the only legitimate puck mover/offensive defenseman in the system. He may have struggled last season, but the Rangers still need him.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMantzas (Post 36071663)
hahaha *LARSSON is worth way more than the healthy scratch/ AHLer MDZ and a possible second line player in Derek Stepan

Stepan put up 45 points last season. Those are 2nd line numbers, and those numbers were put up as a 20 year old rookie.

MacTruck 08-20-2011 12:10 PM

And.. Lindmark? Wolski and Hagelin playing on the 4th line and Rupp on the 3rd? So many things are wrong with this thread.

That Stepan Guy 08-20-2011 12:11 PM

Larsson would be a nice addition and I'm willing to give up Del Zotto, but not Stepan. DZ has yet to reach his full potential and it would be better to let him develop. Stepan is one of our younger centers, but put up 45 points in his rookie season, with 21 goals. Anisimov, Callahan, and Dubinsky didn't reach either for some time, Anisimov has yet to score 20. I understand the logic behind the trade, but it just isn't needed. The Rangers have more than enough defensive depth and the mere fact that you think Larsson is suited for top line minutes in his rookie season is ludicrous.

You also have to think about it, would a long time divisional rival like the Devils give up their best prospect in years? No way. Larsson is a stud and is already built for the NHL. The Devils have a lack of puck moving defenseman and Larsson solves that problem.

Stepan would be nice for the Devils, considering he'd solve any center depth problems and would be a great # 2 for them. Del Zotto, despite being a puck moving defenseman won't provide as much appeal to the Devils. He isn't built like Larsson, and is far too inconsistent. The Devils would want more.

The second deal is laughable and absolutely atrocious at best. There isn't any way the Devils would deal Parise to a rival like the Rangers. Parise is a 90 point player and can dominate with Kovalchuk, there's no reason to trade him for scraps in comparison.

Girardi and Boyle have value, but not nearly enough. They're good, but they aren't all stars. Boyle is still a 4th liner, not a top line player, his 20 goal season doesn't up his value by too much. Girardi is a # 2 on the Rangers, but he'd get downgraded to at leas # 3 on the Devils. He's a solid guy to have, but he doesn't produce that much.

Cam Talbot is less of a player than you make him out to be. He isn't a bonafide goaltending talent, he's an AHL depth goaltender with potential to be a backup. The Devils have Claremont who is much better than Talbot. The mere fact that you think Talbot can replace an NHL great like Brodeur is ridiculous.

The worst thing is that you include a 2nd from New Jersey. You didn't even offer enough for Parise. If you want Parise, your first offer needs to start with Staal or Callahan.

That Stepan Guy 08-20-2011 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by In Gordie We Trust (Post 36071827)
And.. Lindmark? Wolski and Hagelin playing on the 4th line and Rupp on the 3rd? So many things are wrong with this thread.

Lindmark = Jamie Lundmark + Oscar Lindberg

Clowes Line 08-20-2011 12:14 PM

Who the hell is this Lindmark guy? He just magically appeared in our line-up? :shakehead

bernmeister 08-20-2011 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chris6net (Post 36071541)
This is why I hate the off season. Why should the Rangers help out the Devils. The Rangers are going to be stacked this year!

Not suggesting to help them out; asking as to value; if close enough, then would you gamble Stepan and MDZ for another possible Leetch? I think we have enough depth to do it. I think we trading up and its worth the risk, just IMO.

Clowes Line 08-20-2011 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bernmeister (Post 36071931)
Not suggesting to help them out; asking as to value; if close enough, then would you gamble Stepan and MDZ for another possible Leetch? I think we have enough depth to do it. I think we trading up and its worth the risk, just IMO.

Comparing Larsson to Leetch isn't feasible. Leetch was a PMD. Larsson is more of a defensive defenseman with good two way play, much like Erixon. If we are going to talk about potential next Leetch, it's Del Zotto.

Tyrion Targaryen* 08-20-2011 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bernmeister (Post 36071311)
There is presently indication on the big board about Devils lack of depth at C, compounded by injury. Larsen was drafted to be replacement for Niedermayer. If Devs get bonafide value at C, and Del Zotto is enough to be a rushing/passing leader, NJ could fill 2 holes at once for one price, For the Rangers, the gamble, and it is a gamble, is that Larsen turns into the next Brian Leetch.

So much is wrong with this sentence. Yes, the Devils drafted Larsson to replace Niedermayer, who has been gone since 2005.

Also, the Devils and Rangers are among the only rival teams that refuse to trade amongst each other. It's never going to happen. They wait until the offseason and pick at each others garbage, but that's as far as they'll go.

bernmeister 08-20-2011 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMantzas (Post 36071663)
hahaha *LARSSON is worth way more than the healthy scratch/ AHLer MDZ and a possible second line player in Derek Stepan

appreciate your vote.
Disagree as to right now.
Once Larsson actually plays, and shows how quickly he does or does not adapt to NHL, that could change quickly.

MacTruck 08-20-2011 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Boyle (Post 36071805)
Why would either team do this, or even contemplate it? It makes no sense, even in principal.

The Devils need a legitimate, two-way, top-4 defenseman — Larsson could be that as early as this season. Stepan/Del Zotto are certainly players that the Devils could benefit from acquiring, but not at the expense of their potential defensive backbone.

Also, the Devils just drafted him 4th overall, and signed him to an ELC. When was the last time a top-5 pick was traded, what, 2 months after he was drafted?

From a Rangers perspective, why do they need Larsson? He would obviously be a fantastic addition, but this seems to be a case of trading just to trade. The organization already has McDonagh, Sauer, Staal, Girardi, Erixon, Del Zotto, Valentenko, and McIlrath in the organization. Aside from Valentenko, those players are/project to be top-4 defenseman. If Larsson was an offensive dynamo, it would make more sense, but the Rangers have plenty of unspectacular two-way defenseman. Of course, you can never have too many of those types, but there is no need. Taking away Stepan weakens the overall center depth, which is fantastic as it stands. Trading Del Zotto creates a HUGE hole in the organization, as he's the only legitimate puck mover/offensive defenseman in the system. He may have struggled last season, but the Rangers still need him.



Stepan put up 45 points last season. Those are 2nd line numbers, and those numbers were put up as a 20 year old rookie.

This times 1000.

This proposal is just a special kind of awful. It's like he thought to himself. "What trade would make the least sense possible for both parties?" Then he proceded to combine...a franchise player, a top 5 pick just 2 months ago, and whatever other crap he could find

with

a 20 year old future top 6 center, a 21 year old PMD, the only one in the organization for that matter, a top 4 defender, and anything else to make it look even more unrealistic.

Then he concluded that thought with

"That's it! The most imperfect proposal! Let me post it on HFBoards and let the users rip me apart!"

I just don't understand it.

bernmeister 08-20-2011 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lion Hound (Post 36071795)
Pat 1 : Hate it.

Would rather have both players stay with the Rangers.

Part 2 : Do whatever you have to do to get Parise here. He could be the x-factor that get this Rangers team past the Penguanos, or the Caps...or the B's for that matter!

Part 1: fair enough, prefer to gamble on Larsson.
Part 2: would not give up all that much for Parise, especially if he is one year. I thought this was leveraged risk for a one year.

Truthfully, see this as good value for Larsson, and LL holding out for bids on Parise.
But wanted to complete all sides of the extended equation.

That Stepan Guy 08-20-2011 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bernmeister (Post 36072041)
Part 1: fair enough, prefer to gamble on Larsson.
Part 2: would not give up all that much for Parise, especially if he is one year. I thought this was leveraged risk for a one year.

Truthfully, see this as good value for Larsson, and LL holding out for bids on Parise.
But wanted to complete all sides of the extended equation.

You think Boyle + Girardi + Talbot + 2nd is an overpayment for one year of Parise? I'd like to have what you're smoking. Let's be serious, you can't get 1 month of Parise with that offer.

Clowes Line 08-20-2011 12:25 PM

I honestly think the Devs would rather let Parise go to UFA and get nothing for him, than trade him to us before he becomes a UFA and get something. The last thing they want to do is give him to us and let us negotiate an extension and it would also help us immediately this year. The Devs don't want that. They want a bidding war on Parise and are hoping he'll not end up a Ranger and especially hoping he ends up in the West. If we want Parise, we will have to wait until July 1st and win him

That Stepan Guy 08-20-2011 12:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HagelinForPresident (Post 36072089)
I honestly think the Devs would rather let Parise go to UFA and get nothing for him, than trade him to us before he becomes a UFA and get something. The last thing they want to do is give him to us and let us negotiate an extension and it would also help us immediately this year. The Devs don't want that. They want a bidding war on Parise and are hoping he'll not end up a Ranger and especially hoping he ends up in the West. If we want Parise, we will have to wait until July 1st.

We won't get Parise no matter how you look at it. We have $15M in Cap Space next year, the Devils have $25M. Unless Parise refuses to resign, the Devils will have no problem bringing him back. Drop the cap because of the CBA and we might have anywhere from $12-13M. Not close to enough.

Tyrion Targaryen* 08-20-2011 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HagelinForPresident (Post 36072089)
I honestly think the Devs would rather let Parise go to UFA and get nothing for him, than trade him to us before he becomes a UFA and get something. The last thing they want to do is give him to us and let us negotiate an extension and it would also help us immediately this year.

Yup. The only words that come to mind in such a scenario to me are aggressive expansion. Devils fans all over would find nooses. And the ones that were too stupid to would be bickering like the bipolar old hens that they are.

Myself included.

MacTruck 08-20-2011 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bernmeister (Post 36072041)
Part 1: fair enough, prefer to gamble on Larsson.
Part 2: would not give up all that much for Parise, especially if he is one year. I thought this was leveraged risk for a one year.

Truthfully, see this as good value for Larsson, and LL holding out for bids on Parise.
But wanted to complete all sides of the extended equation.

Hold up now.

Now you are admitting that you wouldn't want to give up that much for Parise?

THEN WHY WASTE A THREAD ON THIS?!?

People crack me up.

Clowes Line 08-20-2011 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by That Stepan Guy (Post 36072147)
We won't get Parise no matter how you look at it. We have $15M in Cap Space next year, the Devils have $25M. Unless Parise refuses to resign, the Devils will have no problem bringing him back. Drop the cap because of the CBA and we might have anywhere from $12-13M. Not close to enough.

We can definitely sign him. Clearly him not wanting to sign an extension in NJ is a big part of it, but IMO, I don't think he wants to stay there. They are getting old and worse, Marty is retiring, etc... The Devils are progressively getting worse. Also Kovy has that big contract. Cap space isn't always the answer. The Devs ownership may not want two HUGE contracts like Kovy's and what may be Parise's.

Also, if the cap goes down, so does the respectable pay-out for players. Salaries get cut with the cap going down, so we'd have plenty of space. Also with a lower cap, where Parise may get 8 mil this year, he'll get 6.5 next year because of a lower cap. It all works together, it's not just the cap going down, salaries and cap hits go down as well. Only players we need to re-sign next year are Prust, Biron, and MDZ. The rest can go towards Parise.

Also, like Brooks pointed out yesterday, with the new CBA, who knows what will happen with the buy-out money we owe Dru? For all we know, we may get that 1.6? million back which can go towards Zach

bernmeister 08-20-2011 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Boyle (Post 36071805)
Why would either team do this, or even contemplate it? It makes no sense, even in principal.

The Devils need a legitimate, two-way, top-4 defenseman Larsson could be that as early as this season. Stepan/Del Zotto are certainly players that the Devils could benefit from acquiring, but not at the expense of their potential defensive backbone.

Also, the Devils just drafted him 4th overall, and signed him to an ELC. When was the last time a top-5 pick was traded, what, 2 months after he was drafted?

From a Rangers perspective, why do they need Larsson? He would obviously be a fantastic addition, but this seems to be a case of trading just to trade. The organization already has McDonagh, Sauer, Staal, Girardi, Erixon, Del Zotto, Valentenko, and McIlrath in the organization. Aside from Valentenko, those players are/project to be top-4 defenseman. If Larsson was an offensive dynamo, it would make more sense, but the Rangers have plenty of unspectacular two-way defenseman. Of course, you can never have too many of those types, but there is no need. Taking away Stepan weakens the overall center depth, which is fantastic as it stands it's probably the most deep and versatile group of centerman the Rangers have had since the lockout. Center depth wins you games in this league, and while the same applies to defense, the Rangers are already deep at that posotion.

Trading Del Zotto creates a HUGE hole in the organization, as he's the only legitimate puck mover/offensive defenseman in the system. He may have struggled last season, but the Rangers still need him.

Stepan put up 45 points last season. Those are 2nd line numbers, and those numbers were put up as a 20 year old rookie.

Bold: disagree. Devs are definitely immediately better short term with this deal. It is likely all three will be productive. Rangers only do it to gamble Larsson becomes that special at this level.

Underline: irrelevant

Italic: have to give to get. Stepan is special, but how special is another story.
While injury is always a factor, if Stepan went, for argument's sake, for Weber or Doughty, we would be ok at C w/Richards, AA, and what's coming up, Larsson is not definitely Doughty or Weber. But he has huge upside. The gamble is, what can he bring both immediately and with some development at the NHL level.

Last bold: whether only part 1 Del Zotto for Larsson, or part 2 also, Del Zotto for Larsson, also lose Girardi and get Parise rental, we still have enough depth at D.

Tyrion Targaryen* 08-20-2011 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HagelinForPresident (Post 36072219)
We can definitely sign him. Clearly him not wanting to sign an extension in NJ is a big part of it, but IMO, I don't think he wants to stay there.

Just like one Henrik Lundqvist, who is fashioned by some as King Henrik.

Let me guess, you thought he was definitely leaving too, right? When he signed a one year deal, and then later in the year agreed to a long-term deal? :help:

That Stepan Guy 08-20-2011 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HagelinForPresident (Post 36072219)
We can definitely sign him. Clearly him not wanting to sign an extension in NJ is a big part of it, but IMO, I don't think he wants to stay there. They are getting old and worse, Marty is retiring, etc... The Devils are progressively getting worse. Also Kovy has that big contract. Cap space isn't always the answer. The Devs ownership may not want two HUGE contracts like Kovy's and what may be Parise's.

Also, if the cap goes down, so does the respectable pay-out for players. Salaries get cut with the cap going down, so we'd have plenty of space. Also with a lower cap, where Parise may get 8 mil this year, he'll get 6.5 next year because of a lower cap. It all works together, it's not just the cap going down, salaries and cap hits go down as well. Only players we need to re-sign next year are Prust, Biron, and MDZ. The rest can go towards Parise.

There's room, but it may be unlikely. I wouldn't put my money on signing Parise. Believe me, I'd wet myself if we got him, but Jersey has a considerable advantage and isn't exactly getting worse. They're transitioning from an older team to a younger team. We had to go through the same thing, but luckily we didn't have to with a goaltender because of Lundqvist. The Devils are slowly finding a new identity and I'm sure Parise wouldn't want to give up playing with Zajac and Kovalchuk. Zajac isn't the center that Richards is, but Kovalchuk is healthier than Gaborik.


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