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-   -   Will the Isles trade Aucoin? (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=97475)

Darth Milbury 08-12-2004 01:42 PM

Will the Isles trade Aucoin?
 
With Janne N. signed to a reasonable three-year deal, and Hamrlik having waived arbitration (most likely because he is also going to sign a longterm deal) that might leave Aucoin the odd man out in the situation. Aucoin is almost certain to hit UFA status next summer and has shown no interest in a longterm deal.

One of three scenarios seems likely:

1) Isles move Aucoin in training camp (if there is a season). They'll likely want a younger more physical (but perhaps less talented) dman in exchange.

2) Isles wait until deadline, and then move him for picks and prospects to a contender. Last season's deals for Gonchar and Leetch are examples of what the Isles would try to do with Aucoin.

3) Isles let Aucoin play out the season, and then loose him as a UFA, taking the compensatory pick. Interesting perspective: If the Isles loose Aucoin for a 2nd round compensatory pick, they will have essentially gotten back exactly what they gave up for him. The original deal involved Biron and a 2nd round pick, and Biron is basically a fringe player these days.

My guess? I think the Isles will go with Aucoin for the year, loose him to UFA status, and then try and fill in with a younger player from their own system (i.e., Caldwell, Gervais) next season.

Rex88 08-12-2004 01:45 PM

I agree with your guess unless the Isles are out of the hunt at the deadline and then #2 of course comes into play. No contender would overlook what Aucoin can do for the blueline.

Darth Milbury 08-12-2004 01:48 PM

Yeah, I think he'd be a great deadline pickup, especially with his salary already paid by the Isles.

Aucoin is probably the least talented of the Isles top four. But, he was also the most effective last season (with the possible exception of Kenny J.). Shows you what busting your bud can accomplish.

All Star United 08-12-2004 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth Milbury
Aucoin is probably the least talented of the Isles top four.

Not sure about that. I think his shot is the best of the top four. I also think he is the most talented "overall" - I mean if we take everything into account, he is the more complete of the top four.

I would love it if Montreal could grab Aucoin.

Darth Milbury 08-12-2004 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by All Star United
Not sure about that. I think his shot is the best of the top four. I also think he is the most talented "overall" - I mean if we take everything into account, he is the more complete of the top four.

I would love it if Montreal could grab Aucoin.


His shot may be the hardest, but it is on net about 15% of the time, and his release is not that great. I think Janne N has a better wrist shot and is a much better skater. Hamrlik's overall game is also superior.

disles1 08-12-2004 02:03 PM

The isles IMO will not trade Aucoin but instead trade Hammer- who while more talented is just not a heart and sole player that AA is. Hammer often seems to wander around the ice and play with no emotion. Just because he didn't take the isles to arb doesn't mean we will sign him long term or because AA won his case that it will be for only one year. AA never has said he wants to leave---I guess we will have to wait and see but my $$ is on Hammer getting traded for a winger or a less expensive tough dman.

jstreim 08-12-2004 02:11 PM

Tampa may be in the market for a deadline rental, but that will all depend on how Nolan Pratt plays as the #6 guy. They don't have huge prospect depth either, so this deal may not happen if Aucoin becomes available at the Deadine. BUT... if Milbury would trade him for Alexeev(I thought he has expressed past interest) and a 2nd or 3rd rounder, Feaster should be all over that deal.

Darth Milbury 08-12-2004 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by disles1
The isles IMO will not trade Aucoin but instead trade Hammer- who while more talented is just not a heart and sole player that AA is. Hammer often seems to wander around the ice and play with no emotion. Just because he didn't take the isles to arb doesn't mean we will sign him long term or because AA won his case that it will be for only one year. AA never has said he wants to leave---I guess we will have to wait and see but my $$ is on Hammer getting traded for a winger or a less expensive tough dman.


I'd be OK with Hamrlik being traded for another younger dman, but I don't think we have the depth to move him for a winger.

But, I disagree with the rest of your post. I THINK (i.e., don't know - this is just my guess) that Hamrlik will sign and Aucoin will not. And, for that reason, I think Hamrlik stays and Aucoin goes.

Darth Milbury 08-12-2004 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jstreim
Tampa may be in the market for a deadline rental, but that will all depend on how Nolan Pratt plays as the #6 guy. They don't have huge prospect depth either, so this deal may not happen if Aucoin becomes available at the Deadine. BUT... if Milbury would trade him for Alexeev(I thought he has expressed past interest) and a 2nd or 3rd rounder, Feaster should be all over that deal.


Not going to happen because 1) Alexeev doens't suit any Isles needs, 2) Tampa and Isles will be likely to face each other at some point in the playoffs.

jstreim 08-12-2004 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth Milbury
Not going to happen because 1) Alexeev doens't suit any Isles needs, 2) Tampa and Isles will be likely to face each other at some point in the playoffs.

I didn't think it would. Just very wishful thinking. If by any chance they don't have a shot at the playoffs come deadline time, a deal between these two teams could be very possible, just not involving Alexeev. If he doesn't make the team out of camp he may be plucked off waivers anyway.

Darth Milbury 08-12-2004 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jstreim
I didn't think it would. Just very wishful thinking. If by any chance they don't have a shot at the playoffs come deadline time, a deal between these two teams could be very possible, just not involving Alexeev.


I don't know. I think the Isles would prefer to move him out west. I guess we'll see. If the Isles are out of it at playoff time (which could certainly happen), all bets are off and Adrian could wind up anywhere.

Trottier 08-12-2004 02:21 PM

If the Isles have a good regular season, they won't move any Dman. Wang committed to keeping the team together and he has shown no inclination to do otherwise to date (unless one looks at the Weimer move last fall as such).

If the team flounders, of course, they may (and likely, should) look to cut payroll.

The team's situation will dictate actions. As it should. This team is not the bottom feeder for richer teams that some seem to portray them as. Nor have they ever been in the position of legitimate contender during Wang's time. Until they are in that position, hard to guess how they would react. If they continue to be a middling team this season (and there will be a season), it makes things much more difficult with regard to a player headed toward FA like Aucoin.

Personally, I wouldn't force anything with Aucoin, get ahead of ourselves. Let's see how the players play, how the season unfolds for NYI. Live for the moment.

Just my opinion.

MacDaddy TLC* 08-12-2004 02:27 PM

Aucoin is a work horse and whatever it takes to sign him is what the Isles should do, and then move one of Niinimaa and Hamrlik. I don't believe that a prosepct is going to fill Aucoin's role, but could combine with some of the others to step up and fill the role of the 2-4 guy that is moved.

BTW, is Caldwell thought of as highly by the Long Island faithful? He's a hometown boy and is one of the less heralded from this area.

disles1 08-12-2004 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth Milbury
I'd be OK with Hamrlik being traded for another younger dman, but I don't think we have the depth to move him for a winger.

But, I disagree with the rest of your post. I THINK (i.e., don't know - this is just my guess) that Hamrlik will sign and Aucoin will not. And, for that reason, I think Hamrlik stays and Aucoin goes.

Again Darth we will have to agree to disagree but IMO Hammer will be the one moved. Maybe MM gave some indication today when he said about Janne "we love the intensity he brings every moment he's at the rink." Now I ask you who does that discribe better AA or Hammer?

Seph 08-12-2004 02:28 PM

If Hamrlik signs longterm, then I can certainly see Aucoin being the one to go. He likely has the highest value of any of our d-men and if we can't lock him up, we might as well cash in on that value.

That said, I do hope the Isles sign him longterm. Him and Jonsson have easily been our most effective and consistent d-men over the past few years.

NFITO 08-12-2004 03:33 PM

Darth I think you're being a little optimistic if you think the Isles will get a 2nd round comp pick for Aucoin.

Of course it all depends on the new rules with the CBA, but under the existing CBA, Aucoin wouldn't fetch a 2nd round pick.

but as I understand the current CBA rules for UFA compensation, I don't think that Aucoin gets a 2nd... more likely a low 3rd or a 4th rounder... but if I'm totally off on the rules, please let me know.

My understanding is that the highest comp. pick you can get for a group III leaving is a mid 2nd rounder - 11th pick earliest... and then there are a whole lot of other factors that determine which pick it is.

It also takes into consideration the other UFAs (group IIIs) on the market (group V get no compensation).... unless Aucoin is the highest paid, or among the top 2-3 highest paid UFA signings, and has a stellar season (Norris, 1st team all star, other individual and team awards also factor in), he's not likely to be one of the highest paid UFAs in the market next season... gets even worse if you think that the new CBA will lower UFA age, and there will be more players on the market... as it is guys like Gonchar, S. Niedermayer, J. Smith, and I'm sure a lot of others will be UFAs next offseason... and then the forwards as well... even if just Gonchar and Niedermayer get a bigger contract than Aucoin, while no forwards or goalies get a better contract, he's already unlikely to yield a 2nd round pick.

and all this is also assuming that if the Isles lose Aucoin to free agency, they don't replace him with another UFA signing... otherwise they lose their comp. pick.


of course all that could change under the rules of a new CBA... maybe there'll be no comp. picks awarded anymore for losing a UFA :dunno:

Darth Milbury 08-12-2004 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nuckfan in TO
Darth I think you're being a little optimistic if you think the Isles will get a 2nd round comp pick for Aucoin.

of course all that could change under the rules of a new CBA... maybe there'll be no comp. picks awarded anymore for losing a UFA :dunno:

I buy this completely. I think a 2nd was the best I expected, but I also think a 3rd or 4th rounder is realistic too. Either way, I think the outcome would be acceptable for the Isles.

Darth Milbury 08-12-2004 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by disles1
Again Darth we will have to agree to disagree but IMO Hammer will be the one moved. Maybe MM gave some indication today when he said about Janne "we love the intensity he brings every moment he's at the rink." Now I ask you who does that discribe better AA or Hammer?


I don't think these comments are at all relevant. IMO, the issue that determine who gets to stay and who has to leave will be contracts. If Hamrlik signs, and Aucoin won't, Aucoin will be the one to go.

I don't think that Aucoin has any intention of remaining on the Island after this year, anyway. Again, however, that is just my guess and I am not claiming any inside info whatsoever.

NFITO 08-12-2004 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth Milbury
I buy this completely. I think a 2nd was the best I expected, but I also think a 3rd or 4th rounder is realistic too. Either way, I think the outcome would be acceptable for the Isles.

I agree... I think it makes more sense for them to keep Aucoin for the season... especially if it's a short season, he goes into the playoffs fully rested pretty much (for a guy used to playing 30, sometimes 40 mins through a 82 game schedule!)...

and with the market next year as it is, under a new CBA, his trade value might not be that high - likely lower than UFAs to be have gone for before??

Darth Milbury 08-12-2004 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nuckfan in TO
I agree... I think it makes more sense for them to keep Aucoin for the season... especially if it's a short season, he goes into the playoffs fully rested pretty much (for a guy used to playing 30, sometimes 40 mins through a 82 game schedule!)...

and with the market next year as it is, under a new CBA, his trade value might not be that high - likely lower than UFAs to be have gone for before??


I disagree. I think the league will be in the same siuation at deadline time. Depth is stretched thin in the post-expansion NHL. If there is not a change in the date of the trade deadline (which could happen), I expect we'll see the same feeding frenzy for playoff additions that we always see. And, if the Isles do move him at the deadline, I think a second or first rounder and a prospect would be reasonable return. In fact, I think his trade value could be even higher this year. If there is any kind of cap in place, a player who is a rental could be a very valuable chip.

Trottier 08-12-2004 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MacDaddy Version 1.3
BTW, is Caldwell thought of as highly by the Long Island faithful? He's a hometown boy and is one of the less heralded from this area.

Personally, only know what I've read and heard, which is limited.

Do know that if NYI were to move one of their top 4 and expect a recent college player (Caldwell) or an unproven 20 y/o coming off a knee injury (Gervais) to "take their place," that's laughable. A clear step backwards.

That's the difference between contenders and also rans. I do not expect NYI to do that, contrary to some other NYI fans.

I find the rush/speculation to move a dman here odd. NYI has been making solid progress with all of their contract players this summer. Why in the world would they rush out to move any? Where does the concept of trying to win something/anything this season - instead of worrying about a potential FA - come into play? Keep planning for "the future" and you never have a "present".

Darth Milbury 08-12-2004 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trottier
I find the rush/speculation to move a dman here odd. NYI has been making solid progress with all of their contract players this summer. Why in the world would they rush out to move any? Where does the concept of trying to win something/anything this season - instead of worrying about a potential FA - come into play? Keep planning for "the future" and you never have a "present".

Don't mistake speculation about a move involving Aucion as a desire to see at top four guy gone. The Isles depth outside the top four is horrible, and I see absolutely no reason to believe that players like Caldwell are ready to step in. In addition, I certainly would not want to go to war with Martinek or Sven B. in my top four. My hope is that the Isles acquire a vet next summer to replace Aucion.

As far as Adrian Aucoin is concerned, I'm not confident they are going to be able to sign him. He has little reason to pass up a shot at UFA status, and once he hits that level, odds of the Isles being able to compete with a big market team are not good.l

NFITO 08-12-2004 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth Milbury
I disagree. I think the league will be in the same siuation at deadline time. Depth is stretched thin in the post-expansion NHL. If there is not a change in the date of the trade deadline (which could happen), I expect we'll see the same feeding frenzy for playoff additions that we always see. And, if the Isles do move him at the deadline, I think a second or first rounder and a prospect would be reasonable return. In fact, I think his trade value could be even higher this year. If there is any kind of cap in place, a player who is a rental could be a very valuable chip.

maybe... I don't see it that way though.

will also depend on who is available - what teams are contenders and what teams will dump soon-to-be UFAs while they still can get something for them.

in the end, IMO it's always about the market... and with the $$ crunching, short season, and the possibilities of who will already be on the UFA market, plus the changes in UFA age with a new CBA, possibly expanding that UFA market, the value for such assets at deadline time will go down.... or maybe more realistically, the value for future assets, like prospects and draft picks, will go up.

of course we won't know until the time comes... I just think that teams will be much tighter with the amount of future assets, like draft picks and prospects that they are prepared to move, as the CBA I'm assuming will make it at least a little more difficult to "buy" players in the future (whether it's salary cap or other restrictions), forcing teams to consider building from within more so than many of them are right now.

plus the 2005 draft is supposed to be very deep (like the 2003 draft thanks to many late born players)... a 2nd round pick in that draft under a new CBA, might hold more value than it did in 2004 under the exisiting CBA.

but it's all just speculation right now

disles1 08-12-2004 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth Milbury
I don't think these comments are at all relevant. IMO, the issue that determine who gets to stay and who has to leave will be contracts. If Hamrlik signs, and Aucoin won't, Aucoin will be the one to go.

I don't think that Aucoin has any intention of remaining on the Island after this year, anyway. Again, however, that is just my guess and I am not claiming any inside info whatsoever.

We will see Darth---but did you think the isles were going to sign Janne for three years? IMO Janne and Hammer are too similar, we need a right handed shot, heart and sole player like AA---in fact we can't afford to lose him!! I think MM will keep all four, see how the season starts and then maybe move Hammer or AA. I just hope if it comes to that he will move Roman.

Darth Milbury 08-12-2004 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by disles1
We will see Darth---but did you think the isles were going to sign Janne for three years? IMO Janne and Hammer are too similar, we need a right handed shot, heart and sole player like AA---in fact we can't afford to lose him!! I think MM will keep all four, see how the season starts and then maybe move Hammer or AA. I just hope if it comes to that he will move Roman.


I'm not saying that I WANT AA to leave via UFA status, I just think that is what is going to happen.


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