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-   -   Prospect Info: Further Comments on HF's Rangers Top 20 (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=993201)

Leslie Treff 09-28-2011 06:35 PM

Further Comments on HF's Rangers Top 20
 
Yesterday, Hockey’s Future published the Fall Top 20 of Rangers’ prospects (find it here: http://www.hockeysfuture.com/article..._york_rangers/), and I noticed that there has been very little discussion of it. So, I wonder are we all basically in agreement or am I so far off base in everyone’s mind, they are not even bothering to comment. The blog [...]

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nyr2k2 09-28-2011 06:41 PM

They look pretty solid to me. I'd bump Thomas down a few spots, as his bust factor is pretty high IMO. And I've never been impressed by Chad Johnson, so I would probably have him down near the bottom of the top 20.

I'm sure the reason for lack of discussion is due to people not realizing it was updated!

Fitzy 09-28-2011 06:55 PM

I think you have McDonagh a little low. Chad Johnson is high, as I don't think he should even be in the top 20.

Thomas is quite high.

jas 09-28-2011 07:04 PM

I can't put Thomas above either McDonagh or Erixon. And, I think Miller will end passing Thomas in next year's poll. I also think McColgan should be higher.

UAGoalieGuy 09-28-2011 08:28 PM

Yeah I think McD should have been higher. He has top 4 potential and was already playing top 4 minutes for half of a season in the NHL. He should easily be a HF Top 50 Prospect when the new list comes out because of these facts but he probably will not due to the fact that Kreider, Thomas, and Erixon would all have to be on the list before him, which I don't see happening.

I honestly would flip-flop Thomas and McD and keep the rest of the top 5 the same:

1. Kreider
2. McD
3. Erixon
4. Thomas
5. Miller

Bird Law 09-28-2011 08:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UAGoalieGuy (Post 37217953)
Yeah I think McD should have been higher. He has top 4 potential and was already playing top 4 minutes for half of a season in the NHL. He should easily be a HF Top 50 Prospect when the new list comes out because of these facts but he probably will not due to the fact that Kreider, Thomas, and Erixon would all have to be on the list before him, which I don't see happening.

I honestly would flip-flop Thomas and McD and keep the rest of the top 5 the same:

1. Kreider
2. McD
3. Erixon
4. Thomas
5. Miller

Agreed. There is no logical reason to have McD at 4. None.

Leslie, for some reason you have never been overly high on McDonagh. But now that he's proven his worth as a NHL d-man, I don't get how you can still not believe in him. It's a little bit bewildering and makes no real sense.

nyr2k2 09-28-2011 08:43 PM

Also, I just updated the file for the scrolling marquee up top. It should be updated soon. Thanks Leslie. :)

NYR Viper 09-28-2011 08:46 PM

I know McIlrath is raw and all, but I still think he has to at least be in that top-5 group, it would nice to see ALL 1st rounders up there in the top-5.

Kreider
McDonagh
Erixon
McIlrath
Miller

Tawnos 09-28-2011 08:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonathan. (Post 37218553)
Agreed. There is no logical reason to have McD at 4. None.

Leslie, for some reason you have never been overly high on McDonagh. But now that he's proven his worth as a NHL d-man, I don't get how you can still not believe in him. It's a little bit bewildering and makes no real sense.


I'm not worried about McD, but he's not actually proven yet after 40 games.

Chad Johnson is way too high on there though.

rangersfan111 09-28-2011 08:53 PM

Honestly Leslie your the best but you overrate the rangers prospects. Christian Thomas has an 8.0D ...8.0 is the same as evgeny kuznetsov and gabriel landeskog. People need to keep in mind that Christian Thomas like Tyler Toffoli succeeded because they were playing in the eastern conference in the OHL. Playing against the petes, bulls, wolves, frontenacs and colts for half their games. Playing against this weaker competition pads their stats. I just can't see Christian Thomas as a first line player... no chance. Kreider is still overrated in my opinion. Until he puts up acceptable numbers in college he can't be given an 8.0 ... speed and size are not everything. If these guys are 8.0's guys like mikael granlund, brayden schenn, vladimir tarasenko should be given at least 9.0's.
That's just my 2 cents. Tim Erixon and McDonaugh had proper grades with great writeups and I enjoyed reading the rest of your list.

Bird Law 09-28-2011 08:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tawnos (Post 37218741)
I'm not worried about McD, but he's not actually proven yet after 40 games.

Chad Johnson is way too high on there though.

No, he's pretty proven. You don't drop off the face of the planet with a defensive game. Offensive? Sure. Defensive? About as rare as a white elephant.

nyr2k2 09-28-2011 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rangersfan111 (Post 37218949)
Honestly Leslie your the best but you overrate the rangers prospects. Christian Thomas has an 8.0D ...8.0 is the same as evgeny kuznetsov and gabriel landeskog. People need to keep in mind that Christian Thomas like Tyler Toffoli succeeded because they were playing in the eastern conference in the OHL. Playing against the petes, bulls, wolves, frontenacs and colts for half their games. Playing against this weaker competition pads their stats. I just can't see Christian Thomas as a first line player... no chance. Kreider is still overrated in my opinion. Until he puts up acceptable numbers in college he can't be given an 8.0 ... speed and size are not everything. If these guys are 8.0's guys like mikael granlund, brayden schenn, vladimir tarasenko should be given at least 9.0's.
That's just my 2 cents. Tim Erixon and McDonaugh had proper grades with great writeups and I enjoyed reading the rest of your list.

I can understand disagreeing with a couple rankings, but do know that Leslie is one of the most conservative and reasonable staff writers on HF. People typically complain that she's too harsh on our prospects!

FWIW, the rankings are more than just the number--the letter grade is just as important. A rating of 8.0C means that the player is a First-Line Forward/No. 2 Defenseman/No. 1 Goaltender (the 8.0), that may reach his potential but could drop two number ranks (the C). Dropping two ranks would make a player a third liner/bottom pair defenseman/backup goalie. A player with a D rating is unlikely to reach his potential and could drop three levels, putting them as a healthy scratch-type player. So the difference between an 8.0C and 8.0D is actually pretty significant.

Full explanation of the rankings here: http://www.hockeysfuture.com/playerprojections/

iamitter 09-28-2011 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rangersfan111 (Post 37218949)
Honestly Leslie your the best but you overrate the rangers prospects. Christian Thomas has an 8.0D ...8.0 is the same as evgeny kuznetsov and gabriel landeskog. People need to keep in mind that Christian Thomas like Tyler Toffoli succeeded because they were playing in the eastern conference in the OHL. Playing against the petes, bulls, wolves, frontenacs and colts for half their games. Playing against this weaker competition pads their stats. I just can't see Christian Thomas as a first line player... no chance. Kreider is still overrated in my opinion. Until he puts up acceptable numbers in college he can't be given an 8.0 ... speed and size are not everything. If these guys are 8.0's guys like mikael granlund, brayden schenn, vladimir tarasenko should be given at least 9.0's.
That's just my 2 cents. Tim Erixon and McDonaugh had proper grades with great writeups and I enjoyed reading the rest of your list.

I don't think his grade is bad at all. If Thomas makes it in this league, he will be a top 6 forward. If he doesn't, he won't make it at all.

Leslie Treff 09-28-2011 09:04 PM

This is the first Top 20 that I am in a quandary on in quite a few years. I think that most of us agree that Thomas has first line potential, so unless someone else has first line of pairing potential, I generally don't put them ahead of a first line/pairing guy. On the other hand, Thomas may be considered to be less certain than I would hope--thus the D in the rating.

As I explained, I think that Erixon may have a higher offensive upside than McDonagh. McDonagh was actually traded to the Rangers at least in part because Montreal realized that he was not going to be the offensive defenseman that they drafted him as. And I don't think he will. He is going to be a really solid second pairing two-way guy. I don't understand why some folks think that I am down on him. I am not at all. I love his game; its just that I think that Erixon may provide more offense, so that gives him an edge in my mind.

I am not sure where to put McIlrath. But he is trending upward.

Johnson may very well be too high, but a lot will depend on what he does in the next couple of months. If he puts on a show like his rookie season, I think he may become an NHL backup, if not in New York, then somewhere else, while other players in his range may not make the NHL at all.

Leslie Treff 09-28-2011 09:09 PM

And BTW, I dropped Kreider's ranking from 8.5 to 8.0. Remember he has played in international competition, including the men's tourney and done very well. I do think that he is below some of the other top prospects in the league, so I dropped him to an 8.0. But frankly, he may just be a little raw, and he is truly an 8.5.

We shall see.

alkurtz 09-28-2011 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonathan. (Post 37219123)
No, he's pretty proven. You don't drop off the face of the planet with a defensive game. Offensive? Sure. Defensive? About as rare as a white elephant.

I have utmost confidence that McD will follow up last years excellent play with more of the same.

And I would tend to agree that young offensive D have more of a chance to backslide than defensive D.

But I don't think it is as uncommon as you think for even defensive minded second year D to backslide. Hope it doesn't happen here.

As for Thomas and Miller. I think CT is rated highly because he has (here comes that hated word) first line potential. Whether it ever happens remains to be seen.

And while I have been super impressed with JTM and see him as more of a sure thing than CT, I see him more as an excellent second line player in the manner of Dubinsky.

So I guess its a matter of how you personally rank prospects: by potential or by certainty.

I remain super hign on Kreider and have come around to the pro McIlrath side. I see him as a solid NHL D in a few years.

Drewbackatu* 09-28-2011 09:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SLU Hockey (Post 37214273)
I think you have McDonagh a little low. Chad Johnson is high, as I don't think he should even be in the top 20.

Thomas is quite high.

Thomas as our 2nd rated prospect is ridiculous. He may very well turn out to be a bust. My top 5 would be
Kreider
McDonagh
Erickson
JT Miller
Mcilrath

Can't put Erickson ahead of McD who's already a solid 2nd pair guy. I don't see Erickson ever being as good a defenseman as McD.
Mcilrath showed me a lot in the pre season game against the Devils. If he continues to make the strides he has made this past year, he will be exactly what this team has been missing since Beuk's days.

BrooklynRangersFan 09-28-2011 10:56 PM

I love this current crop of Rangers prospects (especially when counting prospects as defined by HF). Honestly, I don't know if I've been this enthused about the Rangers' pipeline since right after we had drafted Brendl and Lundmark (despite how that worked out).

I think people lose sight of just how good they are because A) they're already used to them on the big club and don't think of them as prospects (e.g. McD), B) didn't appear in camp due to NCAA/SEL commitments (e.g. Kreider, Fasth) or C) are still quite young (e.g. Thomas, Miller).

Especially those last two categories - I love our picks from the last two drafts. I have to admit I'm even warming up to McIlrath (when I make myself forget that Tarasenko was available).

Beacon 09-28-2011 10:59 PM

Weise should be where Johnson is. CJ and Vally should not be on the list, and Parlett should be. Otherwise very good.

Beacon 09-28-2011 11:10 PM

This is arguably our strongest prospect corps in two decades since we had Amonte, Weight, Zubov, etc coming up the pipeline in the early 90s.

Is this bunch stronger than the class that produced Staal, Sauer, Dubi and Cally? Maybe, maybe not. But it certainly has the potential to produce at least 4 (or even 8) above average NHLers. We'll see how it works out, but I'll say this: the "Class of 2005" prospects didn't look as good in 2005 as the "Class of 2011" prospects.

The more I think about it, the more it seems like this is the best prospect class we've had since HF was started.


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