Rob Schremp Analysis and Projections from Lowetide
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08-26-2007, 03:26 PM
Join Date: Aug 2003
Originally Posted by
My issue is that someone feels that they can predict a players developmental curve because of 1 season by not taking into account linemates, level of competition, etc. It's people with similar beliefs that don't want Penner on their team because he's still an un-known commodity due to his less than ordinary path to the NHL as a top 6 player. IMO it is what it is, you can sometimes correctly predict the path of a player, but for every predictable player, there's a Jarret Stoll that exceeds most people's expectations, or another player that just tanks and goes off the radar (Rita, who I personally wasn't that high on).
Most predictions are by nature an inexact quantity. Personally, I group all of it (stats, observation, Desjardins, gut feelings, etc.) into speculation -- now being a science-oriented guy I lean towards "trusting" the stats more but I realize there is also a place for the more subjective observation in predicting any player's future performance.
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