Rob Schremp Analysis and Projections from Lowetide
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08-27-2007, 12:36 AM
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Hockey Hell
Originally Posted by
Boyes is another one but I was trying to stick to centers who were smallish and considered a bit weak on the puck while they were younger.
Desjardins' is basically an equivalency scale. It takes the point total of a player in a league in any ONE season and then gives what that point total in the SAME season would have been in the NHL. It's mainly useful for comparing different players across different leagues at the same ages by measuring all their point totals with the same NHL equivalency standard.
That said, since all speculation is based on past events, imo one can still use Desjardins to fashion a prediction of future NHL performance by comparing a player's NHLE's throughout his young career to the NHLE's of other "comps" of similar archetypes.
Desjardins would tend to distort favorably to players who are just real happy to be there compared to players that already have NHL expectations. As a bad example Stoll/Torres performance with Roadrunners lockout year(bad cause they were already NHLers) but somewhat illustrates the motivational point.
The type of player who already feels like he's good enough to play in the NHL, but maybe not for the present org, is also less motivated to produce the type #'s that would look good after the Desjardins coefficient.
For some AHL players it might actually make sense to perform just well enough to subsequently sign with another club. The line being playing less than indispensible but good enough to stay on NHL radar..That represents significant distortion and I wonder how much of that goes on.
and then theres guys like Schremp with buckets of talent who are motivationally speaking outliers.
Guy could catch lightning if...but to say the probability of that is the same as any other AHLer with similar production is misguided in context of this player. Schremp probability would be greater.
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