Is montreal a bonafide stanley cup contender? #2
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03-19-2004, 07:50 AM
Join Date: Jul 2003
Originally Posted by
Whether it would fly in Vegas is hardly the point. What Vegas does is set lines and odds that (to a large degree) reflect popular rather than expert opinion on who the favorites and who the underdogs are. The goal for them is to get as much money wagered on the number 8 seed as on the number 1 in each bracket.
Having said that, it's probably an overstatment to say each team has a 1/16 shot at the cup. I would bet that a review of past playoffs would show that, statistically, the lower seeds are less likely to get the hardware for a variety of reasons, including the lack of home ice advantage.
That's all I was tryin' to say (although, some might say it takes an expert statistician just to work the numbers the way they do!) ... I totally agree. Home ice is probably on of the biggest confidence factors. There is plenty of precedent showing where home ice hasn't been an advantage, but if you look back at these teams, they tend to be teams that turned up the pace going into the playoffs, thus proving that momentum can be a HUGE factor too.
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