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03-19-2004, 12:06 PM
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The team finishing last would have basically a coin flip (just over 48%) chance of drafting first as they have their chances plus all the chances of teams from 6 on, as no team from 6 down can move up to picking first. This would be true this year, and next if the season is lost to a strike, so a virtual coin flip for Ovechkin and Crosby. The other advantage is that a team can drop no lower than one spot, so if you finish last you at worst get the consolation prize of Malkin, widely considered to be a bit of a drop from Ovechkin, but not a huge drop, and head and shoulders above about a dozen who you could throw into a hat, not much difference between them.

For those who care, the team finishing next to last has about a 17.5% chance so the drop is significant between 30 and 29.

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