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04-15-2004, 07:44 AM
s7ark's Avatar
Join Date: Jul 2003
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Originally Posted by misterjaggers
Actually, the probability doesn't change. For example, if you flip a coin, there's a 50% probability of heads before it lands. If you flip the coin again, there's a 50% probability of heads before it lands...
He he. Technically with two options you're right, but my point was (and I really didn't mean for this to get into a sort of math lecture) that you can use history as a portent of the future. In non-hockey terms, someone in a variable climate could experience many consecutive days of sunshine, but with each passing one the possibility of it raining the next day increases.

In more practical terms, how frequently do teams lose or win three games in a row given similar circumstances, and what are the historical figures for other teams in 3-1/1-3 situations? I honestly have no idea, but hopefully you understand that I simply meant to suggest that the probability of winning 3 games in a row, coupled with the probability of a team achieving 18-0 given 3-1 leads, MIGHT alter the perspective of the situation toward that of Habs success. Note the winking smiley, and it's too late to do the real math, so we'll just have to wonder, wait, and see.

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