25-50-25 Age Breakdown
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02-10-2008, 10:36 PM
11 Stanley Cups
Join Date: Jun 2007
Originally Posted by
The other night following the game on the post-game show, they were talking about the age breakdown in the Sam Pollock years. Thy said his philosophy was to keep 25% of the roster under 23 years old, 50% between 23 and 30, and 25% over 30 years old. If we break down the current roster in these categories, I think it stands out where the real problem area is, and also how we are still a few years away from really becoming contenders. We are seeing the results of improved drafting in the lower categories, but we see the glaring problem with current pro scouting and poor drafting before Andre Savard came in, with the upper ones. For the purposes of this exercise, I am using the current 23 man roster, the desired breakdown should be 6-11-6 in terms of the number of players in each group.
Under 23: Price 20 , S Kostitsyn 20, Latendresse 20, A Kostitsyn 22, Lapierre 22
23-30: Gorges 23, O'Byrne 23, Higgins 24, Plekanec 24, Komisarek 25, Ryder 27, Markov 28, Kostopoulos 28, Begin 29, Streit 29
over 30: Dandenault 31, Bouillon 32, Huet 32, Koivu 32, Hamrlik 33, Kovalev 34, Smolinski 35, Brisebois 36
It is quite clear when looking at it this way, that the team is being rebuilt in the proper manner as with few exceptions, the better elements of the team can be found in the bottom group and first part of the second. The veterans on the team are an almost complete failure with the exception of a couple, even with their number being higher then what it should be. It comes down to finding better players in the over 30 area or having the patience to wait for the younger homegrown players to reach 30 which based on their ages is about 4-5 years away and given early UFA will be difficult to hang onto all of them that long.
Some axioms from the 70's just don't apply any more, if they ever did.
This is a new day, with success today more based on contract mix and performance per salary $ than age mix (although admittedly they are linked).
With better sports medicine, medical procedures, training, etc. 30 is the new 25, or something like that , further changing the old rules of thumb.
For what it's worth I think the "formula" has more variables than it ever has, with age, salary and contract term (security factor), proximity to free agency etc more a part of the system.
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