Received My THN Draft Preview Yesterday...comments
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05-27-2004, 09:20 AM
E = CH²
Join Date: Apr 2004
Originally Posted by
There were some really interesting stats on there. Something like 80% of the draftees are bust. Around 2-3% become superstars. I don't have it in front of me, but it was a real interesting read. This study was from the 1979-1995 draft. Anyway, I have mentioned this in the past how we overate the draft...and trading up is not necessary the best thing as you never know. You are getting a prospect, that is it. You never know if he will pan out or not. Yes there are some sure bets, but how good can they become? With that point, unless you get an offer that you can't refuse to move up in the draft, I would stand pack and stick with your selections.
First let me say I'm not among the people willing to trade the team to upgrade our 1st round pick. I don't think I'm overating the draft or the prospects we can or will get.
That being said I think you are actually underating the draft.
With the euro influx and the pool talent increasing every year the '95 draft can't be compared to an early '80 draft IMO. Even more so in '04. Plus some teams have a significantly higher rate of success in the draft because of their awesome scouting staff. Colorado, Detroit, NYI and NJ being prime exemples. That is why you can't really draw conclusions from these kind of statistics IMO.
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