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07-11-2004, 09:59 AM
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More food for thought. I went back and checked all number 20-30 picks from 1985 to 2000. From the 176 players/Goalies chosen during those years here are the "top" 15 based on GP's, PPG, or my judgement.

Year Num Team Player
1985 24 NJ Sean Burke
1985 28 NYR Mike Richter
1985 27 Cal Joe Nieuwendyk
1986 29 Wpg Teppo Numminen
1986 22 Det Adam Graves
1990 20 NJ Martin Brodeur
1991 26 NYI Zigmund Palffy
1993 23 NYI Todd Bertuzzi
1993 21 Mtl Saku Koivu
1998 21 LA Mathieu Biron
1998 27 NJ Scott Gomez
1998 22 Phi Simon Gagne
1999 21 Bos Nick Boynton
1999 26 Ott Martin Havlat
2000 28 Phil Justin Williams

I don't know if you can yet classify the 1998+ players as "impact players" yet but let's give them the benefit of the doubt and there may be other players chosen then tthat come on strong later. As you can see the list is not exactly 100% prime beef with some notable exceptions. This represents the top 9% of all the players drafted in the #20-30 slots.

Things to note. The goalies were all chosen before it was "fashionable" to chose a goalie other than in the second or later rounds. It was rare to pick any goalie in the 1st round prior to the early-mid 90's. (note Trevor Kidd was picked 11th in 1990 over Brodeur at 20)

Also, you would only pick one player in each year, so in 1985 you would not have gotten all three players listed. If you limit it to one pick per year, the list shrinks in half.

Out of the position players I would argue that Nieuwendyk, Bertuzzi, and Palffy are probably the biggest names, notwithstanding the recent years' picks.

So what does this tell us. You have a 9% chance of picking up a very high quality player (don't forget you also have that RFA you signed as compensation) a 90% of getting a worse player. Eliminating the same year player this shrinks to a 5% chance. Like I said before , the odds of picking an impact player in this slot is slim. You are more likely to pick ten Chad Penney's than one Joe Nieuwendyk.

Is it a risk. Yes it is, but a calculated one, and one you only take if you can get an impact player in his prime that you can sign up for 5 years.

And if you get to the late picks and there is a player you really want, do it the Devil's way--trade your 2nd & 3rd for that late 1st round pick.

Last edited by Kickabrat: 07-11-2004 at 10:05 AM.
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