New official lines for tonight
View Single Post
11-20-2008, 04:30 PM
Join Date: Jan 2006
Originally Posted by
Team Corsi numbers have a high correlation to winning - the Habs being an (I think the most dramatic of any team) exception, since their shooting % and save % have been abnormally high the last few years.
Which doesn't invalidate the statistic if you use it to compare a players with others within his team, but is nevertheless cause to take it with a suitable grain of salt. I've never been very keen on shot-based metrics, because they don't measure shot quality very well (an acknowledged problem) and encourage taking more bad shots rather than quality shots (Jason Blake has a very high Corsi rating, for example, but neither goals nor much winning have resulted).
That the Habs are notorious for getting outshot a lot and not having the goal differential follow also has to be considered when looking at these stats.
Some teams do well when outshot (Montreal, who two years ago even had a better record when outshot than when outshooting; also Minnesota last year), and some don't (last year, Atlanta, Carolina, and interestingly, Detroit, though it happened so rarely it wasn't significant). Just something to keep in mind when the Habs are getting outshot and it makes you worry.
Not a bad set of lines from my amateurish eye. TomTheBomb is keeping SKost's spot warm until the youngster playes better, nothing more, I'm sure. I might have swapped Lang and Pleky, and gone Kost-Plek-Kost and Higgins-Lang-Kovalev, but I can see why you'd want to keep the lines this way -- Kostitsyn and Lang has been a combo that has actually clicked in at least one game.
Yes, clearly Lats is not ahead of Higgins on the LW depth charts, but Pleky and Kovy simply need more help than Koivu and Tanguay right now. Higgins may work better with Kovalev than AKost because Higgins can be effective offensively without having the puck -- he'll drive to the net and go for rebounds. Not that AKost can't, but he has a set of puck skills that go to waste if Kovy's hogging it (and vice versa, really).
View Public Profile
Find More Posts by MathMan