Thread: Carle vs Jones
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01-12-2009, 08:27 PM
Juicy Couturier*
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Originally Posted by FlyHigh View Post
This argument is fairly simplistic (no offense).

Carle is going to put up most of his points on the PP. In his best season in SJ, he put up 26 of his 42 points on the PP, that's 62%.

Last year, Kimmo put up 29 of his 44 points on the PP, that's 66%.

Last year, Lidstrom put up 34 of 70 points on the PP, around 50%.

Last year, Rafalski put up 31 of his 55 points on the PP, 56%.

Also, keep in mind that the Flyers are not a great ES team, in fact, they're pretty darn poor, so a lot of their scoring gets done on the PP.

Now, in Carle's best year, he spent an average of 4:36 per game on the first PP unit. That's not too much out of normal, Kimmo spends 4:26 per game on our PP unit.

By contrast, Carle spends 2:17 per game on the PP. That is a fairly significant drop.

So hypothetically, let's double Carle's time on the unit. He has an admittedly unimpressive 3 A on the PP so far. However, if we double his PP time, that becomes 6 A.

That would give him 12 points in 24 games, a 41 point pace although that's an admittedly small sample size.

Personally, I am more worried about his defensive play and positioning than his point production. Carle is a PP defenseman, most offensive d-men are. If he's not getting PP time, he's not going to produce as much, that's exacerbated by the fact that we are a poor ES team. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure this out.
This makes sense...but only in theory. Guys play more than others for a reason, if carle was that valuable on the PP he wouldnt be only playing 2 minutes a game. 3 assists isnt a big enough sample to use that example. if he only had 2 points, 1 less bounce for an assist that drastically changes the end result of your math to a 30 point season instead of a 40 point season. You would also have to take away a few points because carle plays a lot of minutes and if he played 2-3 more PP minutes that means a few minutes of ES a game would come off and that means a couple of his points would come off.

Also using your formula we should just play carter 40 minutes a game. Man he would be tearing it up with 58 goals right now if we just doubled his icetime.

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