The Official we don't need Briere thread
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02-23-2009, 05:52 PM
Join Date: Jan 2004
Originally Posted by
Scoring is up throughout the league...so you need to take those numbers with some much greater context than you're giving them.
Last year we scored 2.99 goals a game, this year we are scoring 3.26 goals a game. The league leader last year (Ottawa) scored 3.15 goals a game, and the current leader (Detroit) is scoring 3.7 goals a game.
Nashville has the weakest offense in hockey right now, at 2.3 goals a game...last year the weakest offense was the Islanders, at the same number. The 15th ranked offense this year scores at 2.87 goals a game, and last year that number was 2.73 goals a game.
Offense is up. Without taking the time to run the numbers, I would bet our increase of only .11 GAA is beating the mean for the league.
Last year our GDIF (the important number) was 0.22. Right now our GDIF is 0.39. We're a better team against the competition this year, than last year.
Not really correct.
Let's look at those GAA stats again then.
Team rank in GAA in 2007-2008 = 18th
Team rank in GAA in 2008-2009 = 17th.
Team rank in 5 on 5 GAA in 2007-2008 = 19th, separated from the 13th spot by 3 goals.
Team rank in 5 on 5 GAA in 2008-2009 = 13th, separated from the 19th spot by 3 goals.
So basically, outside of random statistical variation, we've stayed the exact same in team GAA and 5 on 5 GAA. And btw, looking up those took me 3 minutes, it's not like this is complicated.
Your GDIF is an interesting point, but all that shows is that we've gotten better offensively and that's explained very easily.
Gagne has essentially replaced Briere's offensive production, Richards is on pace for a better year, Carter is on pace for a much better year, Hartnell is on pace for a much better year, and we added a puckmoving D which was a severe problem for this team last year. This team has experienced a slight increase from 25th in 5 on 5 GS in 2007-2008 to 19th in 5 on 5 GS this year. There's a difference of 11 goals between the 19th and 25th placed teams this year, so there's a little more of a visible difference, but not a huge one.
My original point is that this team has remained in the exact same place defensively, with or without Briere, all the games this season support that point and so do all the numbers.
The difference is that we've become very slightly better at 5 on 5 offense (and even that could just be a normal variation) with Carter and Hartnell breaking out and getting some offensive contribution from all 3 defensive pairings.
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