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04-11-2009, 07:43 AM
  #12
Mathletic
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Location: St-Augustin, Québec
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Falconer View Post
The question isn't "can we model hockey exactly we model baseball?"

The actual question is "can a statistical model of NHL hockey improve our organization's decision making" and the answer to that question is "yes" in my opinion.

Think of how high the error rate is in the NHL draft. If you could decrease you're organizations error rate 15% in the draft that would be a valuable thing in the long run.
and that's exactly what I'm doing, the model proposed by James is well done for baseball, but you can't think of applying the same model to hockey since it would be very hard to do. However, with a few twists here and there and use of other stats tools you can get something decent. My draft success ranges from 80% to 100%, and that takes into accounts late picks and the percentages stand down to 1990, and it tells you to get exceptions like Martin St. Louis, Andrei Markov and Johan Franzen, so it's not only the early picks.

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