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04-11-2009, 01:10 PM
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Originally Posted by FSU Seminoles View Post
and that's exactly what I'm doing, the model proposed by James is well done for baseball, but you can't think of applying the same model to hockey since it would be very hard to do. However, with a few twists here and there and use of other stats tools you can get something decent. My draft success ranges from 80% to 100%, and that takes into accounts late picks and the percentages stand down to 1990, and it tells you to get exceptions like Martin St. Louis, Andrei Markov and Johan Franzen, so it's not only the early picks.
What data did you use to create the model? If you used a sample of historical data to create a model that "predicts" the success of players within that sample, then great, you've fit some equations to a set of numbers. "Predicting" St. Louis, Markov, and Franzen is a lot easier when you've created the model on a sample that includes their numbers.

How well does the model predict results outside of the data sample that created it? Have you run any tests on that? That's the true test of the model's usefulness.

Originally Posted by FSU Seminoles View Post
no doubt in my mind the Sabres have some form of model that gives them an advantage on smaller forwards. A couple of years ago they said they cut back on scouting and would work more with stats and tapes and since that time they clearly go the small forward route like Ennis that gives them the luxury to let high paid forwards go and keep the low pay guys.
I'd be interested to know what their model is and how they use it in their decision-making process. If their model predicts offence alone, the smaller forwards will stand out as bargains, but a team of small forwards will generally be weaker defensively, as defensive ability tends to go along with size and reach.

I'd agree that size has been overrated by NHL teams in the past, but draft models that only take offensive output into consideration will overrate small players as a group at least to some degree, IMO.

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