Is there an equivalent of a "Moneyball" for the NHL?
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04-11-2009, 01:14 PM
How's the thesis?
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Durham NC
Originally Posted by
, Iain Fyffe found that there was a much stronger correlation between a forward's OHL PPG in his draft year and NHL success than his draft position and NHL success. That suggests that something as simple as PPG could potentially improve decision making. If you combined the information the numbers give you with the subjective knowledge you have of potentially fatal flaws in a player's game, you'd probably end up ahead.
That actually isn't too hard to believe. While PPG isn't the end all be all for a prospect (just ask Corey Locke) there is absolutely something to be said about being able to be a productive player offensively.
A factor that I've been looking at over the past few drafts is percentage that a player leads his team by in points. Generally if they lead by over 15% on a low scoring team they're worth watching. A guy like Landon Ferraro in this draft is going to be underrated looking strictly at PPG, but he was the Red Dear leader by over 30% this year in terms of scoring and PPG so he's a player on my radar that's likely to have a productive NHL career. Unfortunately I have only been tracking this for a couple drafts now so I don't have much raw data to go on to say how accurate that is or not.
If I can get my programing skills up to par I may be able to make something to help project but until then I'm just going on gut intuition and statistical analysis. If I have time the next few weeks I'll likely add in the 05 draft and tweak my formulas a bit after talking with FSU Seminoles. He had some pretty sound ideas in regards to the draft on this that could definitely add to what I've been trying to do with my own formulas for both the draft and the NHL level.
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