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05-07-2009, 02:31 PM
Kriss E
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Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
They won't drop it in ONE single season Kriss. They said it would be a steady slow decline of the cap until they see the economy pick up some steam (and the economy is already doing a bit better than it did 6 months ago).

Dropping it of just 6 mil in one season is a huge drop of more than 10%. Bringing down the cap has its own problems, as it has a logical fallacy. Players contracts are garanteed, and they can make no more than 20% of a team's max cap hit. If a player signed for a salary of more than 10 million, than at a 48 million cap hit, his salary shouldn't be more than 9,6 million. I know that as of now, there are no players getting a cap hit of 10 mil, still Gaborik was trying to get there, and in the end the CBA would circumvent itself if they bring the cap down too much as players like Ovechkin will be making more than 20% of his team'S cap hit.

Also, they don't need to actually drastically bring the cap down to control a loss of revenues. They can use the Escrow account %, and effectively counter losses, which would also be balanced over all players. That's why Bettman talked of lowering the cap progressively until the economy rights itself. This means the cap probably won't go down more than 5% annually (that's no more than 2,5 to 3 mil less).

IF the economy picks up, and most think it will in the next five years, this means that there are good probabilities that the cap will one day, in the next 10 years, rise higher than what it is at the moment, as the CBA is based on a sharing of the revenues between the players and owners, and if the revenues go up, the salaries will too, and the NHL, in a healthy economy had shown that they grew their revenues year in and year out.

So I don't think he's that off with his post. Except that this cap hit will be a pain in the arse for the upcoming seasons and might also be stiffling if Lecavalier isn't even worth close to a 7,27 cap hit when he reaches his 35 and there are still 5 seasons to include that cap hit on your team, no matter if the cap went up or not. Lecavalier's contract is a ticking timebomb just waiting to blow up.
I had heard it was going to drop to 48M in 2years. Hopefully it happens as you're describing.

But I still don't think it's very wise to base a decision on the expectation of the economy picking up and seeing the cap once again rise a lot.

If all goes well, the economy will have re-established itself in 5years but we don't really know.

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