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05-29-2009, 09:38 PM
  #44
embracedbias
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Quote:
Originally Posted by solo16 View Post
I mentioned adding a pick with Filp for First overall not the opposite. I do not think Filps Value is 5th overall. I actually think its about 15th overall. But I do not think 5th overall would be out of the realm of possibility. Ie. Filp+3rd = 5th overall as per above.
The difference between 15th and 5th is not a 3rd round pick. Based on what the scouts and "experts" say, this draft has 7 top players and the talent drops off a bit (but is very solid, overall). I'm getting the impression that you don't know too much about this years draft. I don't blame you though... your team is still in the playoffs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by solo16 View Post
I think in 5 years Filp will definitely be better than 1 of them. Probably be better than two of them. 1 imo will be better than filp. Such is the nature of draft picks.

For reference in the 2004 draft...(5yrs ago) Andrew Ladd, Montoya, Wheeler were drafted 4-5-6. IMO the best player of the three is Wheeler. That being said none of the three are conclusively better players than Filp. Give Filp 5 more years of development and compare a 29 year old Filp to any of those 3, as stand ins for our hypothetical Kane, Schenn, MPS and its pretty clear he will be better or at least comparable. OFC there is a CHANCE the pick could be better as well.


What exactly was your argument again? That im a fool cause I underrated 5th overall picks because they will be better than Filp within 5 years? Sorry nope thats a fallacy.


An additional more neutral note looking at all the drafts in the last 10 years the only years that imo are better than Filp were 2003 (vanek, Zherdev, Michalek) 2006 (backstrom, kessel, Brassard)
This draft is supposed to be the best since 2003. It doesn't matter though, because its totally irrelevant. You are a fool because you underrate the 5th overall pick without actually knowing much about the actual prospects (which is a guess on my part). If any of these players score 40 points at age 25, they will be considered busts.

Make as many excuses for Filp's production as you want, GM's tend to pay attention to results.

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