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06-13-2009, 01:06 PM
  #135
ukyo
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Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Silicon Valley
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FSU Seminoles View Post
I'm a maths student and I've come up with a model that predicts, or at least gives a rating to junior players or pro players from europe in order to have a better idea on who to draft. I'm not entirely done yet but I've tested my model for 1985-2005 and during that period of time I kick any scout's ass basically. Especially since 2000 since from that period of time it's easy to test who to draft and who not to draft.

For instance, I won't tell you if it's a success or not in my model, but Tim Thomas came in the league at 30 some years old, so he's a very late bloomer and I don't think there's much use in drafting those late bloomers since their play likely evolved very late in their career. So since 2000 I'm pretty much spot on values given to players.

With that said, since 1985 I'm doing extremely well. I can tell you not draft Alexandre Daigle n'1 and so on. People always tell me that it's easy with hindsight and all that stuff, but it's not case with my model. It's a scientific, objective model, so anybody can run it and end up with the same result. Also, I don't tell you not to draft Daigle since he still went on to having a career in the NHL, all it says is not to draft him say before Chris Pronger.

So I started talking about my model to my physics and maths friend and all of them are excited about my model and I thought I could start investigate with NHL teams. In the moneyball thread I remember Falconer talking about the Sharks and LA Kings having quants people aboard. I'd like to know if you have any info on that?
This is very intriguing, but what exactly are you asking for, contact information for people within those two organizations?

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