Compare your picks vs Trevor Timmins
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06-28-2009, 07:41 PM
Join Date: Sep 2004
Originally Posted by
I'd try to speak for many of us here in saying that we *have* been doing those kinds of drafts with that kind of information at our disposal. My keeper FHL has been doing an entry draft for almost two decades now. And I know for a fact that it's entirely possible for a random draft guide peruser to pick better than the teams of professionals. But that's kind of a shallow and incomplete metric. Sure, mostly by chance, armed only with the CSB rankings and a copy of The Hockey News draft guide, some FHL GM can draft better than the best NHL team of pros. Once or twice...? Or consistently? Hmm. There *is* a large degree of crapshoot factor in the NHL draft. But I think we also shouldn't ignore the development factor either. It's all very well for our lucky draft guide geek to say he picked 7 or 8 players who panned out better than the 7 or 8 picked by the pros. But. The picking is only the first part of a prospect's journey to the show. Especially today teams invest so much in preparing and developing the players, and that's probably at least as much of a factor as the initial picking. And a good deal more of the work. Which is something us draft geeks should have absolutely no way of deluding ourselves into thinking we could handle or take any pseudo-credit for.
absolutely... that's sort of the point I was trying to get at by saying that it's useless to look back and judge since a player that turns into a good player may not have the same career path if taken by a different organization.
i really do wonder though, if a team actually had the *balls* to say "forget this scouting department budget, we are going to go with the red line report/mckeens/whitesnake-BG-Montreal mock draft from now on", how would they do compared to the rest of the league over 4-5 drafts.
in the end I think the player development side of things is an even greater determinant of "draft" success than the actual quality of players picked. aside from the handful of straight to the NHL talent picked every year, the "difference" between the bulk of the prospects is so minimal at their age that it probably isn't totally insane to think that such a system might work (even if it would be borderline media suicide given the negative backlash all who follow the team would unload on the organization...
come to think of it, I wonder if what really separates the best scouting departments from the rest is not so much their talent i.d skills as it is their ability to identify the type of athletes that can thrive within the organization they work for, given the expectations, development stages, market (fan/media) pressure or lack thereof, distraction control, etc etc.
anyhow, i'm certainly not saying that I would do a better job than any of the pro's... heck I'm lucky if I watch more than 4-5 non-NHL games/year... this thread just seemed like an interesting idea, because even with my limited knowledge, I found myself on draft day excitedly cheering for this guy or that, based entirely on the reports I could find and my idea of what we lack/need. Wether hindsight shows that I would have been right or wrong (and again, it's a virtually impossible claim to make unless said player jumps into the NHL and immediately makes a big impact) certainly doesn't or wouldn't make me a better "scout" or talent judge than any of the guys that do it for a living in the NHL... hope my posts weren't giving that impression.
*** though I should say that I'm still pretty sure Snow is a bit of an idiot... even if the TSN guys were drooling over his first round wheeling and dealing, it looked like a huge reach to trade away later picks to move up a few spots and grab a guy that wasn't on the radar yet. Either he knew another team between 12-16 was going to make the same reach, or he was doing his best Al Davis impression!
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