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07-08-2009, 11:16 PM
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Originally Posted by starlighter View Post
The A's always choked in the playoffs because they never could manufacture a run.
This is pretty unfair. The As did extremely well based on their limited financial resources, and continue to do so. As recently as the '08 season, they have an exceptional win record for the dollars that they are able to spend.

That teams like the Red Sox do better isn't because they don't do a form of moneyball, it's that they do moneyball with an extremely high level of resources. Smarts + money generally trumps smarts + no-money.

However moneyball does not believe in stealing bases and the recommendations it makes for not having a closer...
These are both incorrect statements.

Sabremetrics *likes* stealing bases - if you can do it well enough. That means not being overly aggressive - only send the guys most likely to make it and only against pitchers/catchers less likely to get the out and only do it in ballparks where the runs-scored expectation tilts it in your favor.

Nor does it dislike closers - what it dislikes is spending so much money on a closer that it takes away your ability to hire quality starters. Same deal with relievers. You can see this with the Red Sox - the money their closer makes is FAR less than the top-paid closers earn. If Papelbon ends up wanting the big paycheck, it is a very safe bet Boston will trade him rather than pony up the $12-15M he'd likely fetch on the open market, because that difference will buy you a very good starter.

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