Is there an equivalent of a "Moneyball" for the NHL?
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07-09-2009, 01:03 AM
Join Date: Apr 2006
Originally Posted by
Here is an article about analytics and how it can be used in the NHL. As noted in the article former GM Mike Smith and a partner have started a company to provide these services (Coleman Analytics) and reportedly have 5 NHL clients as of May 2008. Smith points out it is hard to get the NHL to accept new ways of doing things.
I'm very skeptical of the public descriptions of the Coleman Analytics. So far it sounds like a bunch of "clutch scoring" which is probably just small sample size theater.
I looked at Game Winning Goals years ago and they were largely random across a players career, the only thing that jumped out is that players know for their assist had a higher than expected proportion of GW goals--my hypothesis is that while they usually favor the pass, with the game on the line they are more likely to break with their pattern and take a shot, and therefore more likely to end up with a GW Goal. It is also possible that opposing goalie and defenders expect them to pass and thus are more vulnerable if an Adam Oates choose to shoot instead of pass late in a game.
There is a lot of interesting stuff being done on repeatable skills like Corsi numbers and so forth.
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