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07-13-2009, 12:29 PM
Giant Moo
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Originally Posted by misfit View Post
Like I said, Corsi data is useless without the proper context. All Corsi shows is the relation of shots for and against when you're on the ice. Any fool should be able to understand the notion that when you're starting more often than not in front of your own net, you're more likely to be on the ice for a shot against than a shot for. Even the best faceoff men lose 40% or more of their draws, so it's not uncommon for a shot against to occur without anybody being at fault defensively. This is especially likely for defensemen who have little to no impact on the outcome of a faceoff.
Like QoC, that shows there is a lot of noise involved, which means it's not a terribly useful measurement of anything to any significant level of confidence.

Kulka (Mirtle is bad for this as well) is just showing that people who don't understand the numbers they're using shouldn't try to use them to prove or disprove anything.
That's like saying that people who don't understand biorhythms shouldn't use them to prove or disprove anything.

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