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07-13-2009, 09:07 PM
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Paradise
Country: Canada
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Originally Posted by dubya View Post
The more context, the better, but certainly correcting for ice time is the first necessary step (otherwise it's mostly just a measure of how much you're on the ice, IMO). I'm not a huge Corsi supporter, but I think it's a useful measure of how much time you're spending in each end. For that to be useful, you need to know how much time you spend on the ice (so you can do corsi/60min or whatever), what level of competition your playing, and where your shifts start, I think. How good your linemates and team are will also factor in, but I think the good players will have better Corsi even without those corrections, and certainly in comparison to their teammates.

I don't see how obtaining MORE information could lead to bias, as long as you aren't picking and choosing information.

These stats are only for 5x5 play. I would agree that some of the most ardent supporters of these methods tend to undervalue special teams play. In the end GF-GA is what matters, and if you suck at 5x5 but dominate on the PP that's fine too, IMO, as long as you are driving goal differential in a positive direction. However, most of the game is at even strength, so players that can dominate (outscore) at evens are the most valuable. I'm ambivalent towards Horcoff...I actually figure $5.5M isn't bad considering how much he plays and how well he does against tough competition, but at the same time contract values have historically been based almost entirely on scoring (for forwards), and by that metric he is probably overpaid.
Now there's a sensible approach.

Nothing wrong with information as you've pointed out. It's when information is used selectively to support a conclusion that has already been reached that I have a problem.

Take a close look at Patrick Kane, who more than a few here have derided for being a sinkhole at even strength. His PP numbers are off the charts considering his age and last time I looked a PP point was at least as valuable as an ES point.

Playing tough competition to slightly more than a draw at ES can quickly be sewered if you don't have much else to bring to the party. That is the definition of a third line centre.

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