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07-23-2009, 11:24 AM
  #119
Dark Shadows
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RabbinsDuck View Post
Wow... thanks for that site - and I can see how tedious it is to get info, but really appreciate it!

My point is really not to 'disparage' Potvin's points at the time, but to simply say Lidstrom would be more than capable of putting up those 90-95 points in the 70s (which is what several of his seasons have factored out to in 70s scoring) without drastically altering his game (though, depending upon his defensive pairing, he has been more than capable of jumping up into the play).
No, Lidstrom would not! He might hit 90 points once or twice in his very best seasons, but would hover around:
70
48
65
31
78
67
69
67
85
83
69
72
45
94
72
82
Which is from the graph Hockey Outsider made regarding adjusting Lidstrom to the average from Bourque's era(Which was even higher scoring than Potvin's)

Quote:
In 1978, with the Islanders at 111 pts and top 3 in the league, 6 of the 18 teams ( a full 33%) ended up with around 50% or less of the Islanders points:

59 Rockies
57 Canucks
57 Barons
53 Blues
48 Capitals
45 North Stars

The Red Wings sucked at the time as well, and ended up with only 41 pts the year before.

In the 90s and 00s, there are usually only 3-4 out of a full 30 teams that end up with only 50% of the points of the top teams -- typically around 10% of the teams, compared to 30-35% in the 70s.
Yes, I get you. I understand where you are coming from and the faulty assumption you are making, but have I not just shown you that Potvin scored around the same amount against the elite best of the best that he did vs the bottom feeders during his prime?


Quote:
So on average, day-in and day-out, players in the 90s and 00s were facing overall deeper and better competition.

Just like any great player of the 70s, Lidstrom would benefit from it, and I do not think my point projections for him are out of line at all -- 90-95 points, and Lidstrom's 00, 01, 06 and 08 seasons were all right there.

Potvin finished the 70s with seasons of 101, 98, 94, 80 and 76.
Lidstrom's top seasons fit into there quite nicely, maybe looking something like this (and I do think I am being conservative):
101 98 95 94 90 88 85 84 80 78 76

And then Lidstrom has a whole boatload of seasons at a similar level, with Potvin only one or two more in the even higher scoring 80s.
No, I think the numbers I posted from Hockey outsider's Bourque Lidstrom debacle seem much more likely. Your numbers seem to have been adjusting from Lidstrom's worse PPG year to Potvin's highest instead of the average.

In any case, the adjusted stats thing is nice and all, but Potvin was a much more phenomenally dominating defenseman, and as I said before, Lidstrom's style of defense would need to be adjusted. Cutting angles would only work so well in the stand up goaltender era with those pads.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDhzhSLdmPE

Lidstrom would need to change up and attack the man much more aggressively like other defenders of the time, or that would happen much more often than it possibly can in the modern age with their gargantuan pads.



Quote:
Potvin's peak years were a hair above Lidstrom's, and then Lidstrom completely takes over with the sheer amount of merely "great" years.

We're talking less than a 10% edge offensively, a good portion of which Lidstrom makes up for with slightly better defense.
Potvin's peak was much better than 10% better. Over the coruse of his career, Lidstrom has been a top defensive defenseman of all time. But Potvin was too, and during his best years, he was probably equal to Lidstrom and he put the fear of god into anyone entering his zone, much like Stevens did for the devils, making them more tenative around him and more likely to cough up the puck. Offensively, I don't care what stats you pull up. Potvin was better by a bigger margin.




Quote:
Plop Lidstrom into the 70s and 80s and he might have only 3-4 Norrises, but he *would* have a heck of a lot of runner-ups and top 3 finishes, on a more comparable level to Bourque, rather than Potvin.
I think his resume would look much more like Potvin's to be honest. There were a lot of runner up's and 3rd place finishes for the Norris back then that were better than many of Lidstrom's Norris years.

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