The Kessel File-Volume 2 - Phil Wants Out of Beantown
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09-13-2009, 07:31 AM
Join Date: Mar 2005
Originally Posted by
Zeke, those examples I gave you were to illustrate the fact that yes, you can acquire elite level talent in the teens. (And the 20s and the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th rounds.) I just wanted to remind you that that possibility exists, something you seem to be in denial about.
Phil Kessel isn't the be all and end all of offensive talent.
and my examples were to illustrate the more relevant fact - that the chances of getting a kessel quality player with those mid-round picks are small - very small.
The funny thing about the draft is you make your own odds and you aren't assigned random players: you put the energy into scouting to target the right guys and you nurture them to be what they can be. The process is far from fool proof but the fact that some organizations consistently do better than others suggests that we're not talking about blind odds but a process whose odds can be improved upon if you do your homework. And looking at our prospect pool, we've benefited from that a little bit, no? Or should be just package every promising kid up for a slightly more proven asset?
The funnier thing is that there's a whole lotta luck in the draft, regardless of how good your scouting is.
and you need a whole lotta luck to get a kessel-like player with a mid-round pick, no matter how good your scouting is.
each case is different - but make no mistake, Phil Kessel is a more promising young talent than any player in our organization.
Well I guess you get what you pay for. Kessel would supposedly be the best offensive talent we've had in years and a real franchise cornerstone, but he's leaving a Bruins team that has a core of Savard, Lucic, Chara, Wideman, Krejci. All drafted OUTSIDE of the first round.
so why are you so worried about moving two mid-first round picks?
heck, we'd have Kessel (#5), Schenn (#5), Kadri (#7), Komisarek (#7), Tlusty (#13)....that's already more high first round talent than most other teams, including Boston.
Thornton, Gaborik, Heatley, Spezza, Nash, Horton have all been pretty poor franchise cornerstones whose teams have experienced very little playoff success.
and kessel compares pretty well to all of them at the same age.
And Kessel does not compare to Toews at all. Here's the difference: one is the face of the franchise whom you'd never get close to making a move for, the other is plainly available.
well, now here's the debate, eh?
there's no question that Kessel is a comparable talent to Toews. even Kane.
and we might be able to get our hands on that kind of talent for two mid-first round picks, just because of some apparent intangible issues that may or may not be true (remembering that this is the same GM who dumped Joe Thornton for peanuts, so his judgement here should be taken with a grain of salt).
At the same age doesn't mean that much, a lot of players are late bloomers, some regress, some develop in a linear fashion.
same age for top-5 picks (i.e. the most NHL-ready prospects in their year) means plenty.
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