View Single Post
Old
11-16-2004, 03:23 AM
  #50
cws
...in the drink
 
cws's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Country: United States
Posts: 1,631
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by vanlady
I suggest you check you valuations again, in 2003 the Thrasher were worth 106 million and the Hawks were worth 202 million. Recheck for the 2003 valuations.

308-46.2(TW share)=261.8 so at most it is only our 11.8 million which is less than 5% at best. I know but cannot find the article at this point but will try tommorow, that the difference is only 1%.b

By the way the operating rights of the arena are all considered in the valuations already, it is part of the calculation. By the way Forbes has these expences and profits dead on because the city gives them the information under freedom of information.
Couldn't sleep, and the numbers you had seemed interesting so I dug a bit. Actually found two different set numbers giving Forbes valuations. But if I'm looking correctly, the numbers I gave before were correct.

I was stating their valuations at the time of the sale earlier this year, not right now. Don't know exactly how it turns out like this, but then again I've looked at various Forbes numbers in various industries for more than a decade and still don't really understand how they come to some of their conclusions (but that's another story). The numbers on the Forbes site don't reflect the sale, they still have both teams belonging to Time Warner. And since those numbers don't factor in the sale, the part of the deal that includes the operating rights cannot be shown. So we really don't have much of an idea of what value that carries, probably embedded in the sale itself. Either way it's out of our knowledge, so I'll back out of putting a monetary value on it.

The numbers I have put the Hawks at $202M and the Thrashers at $134M, owners Atlanta Spirit LLC.

That's still $86M below the actual sale. And Turner Broadcasting owns 15% of the Atlanta Spirit. Not knowing any particulars of the sale, I don't have the first clue what that actually means in terms of our little pricing debate here (though the Thrashers local TV contract has to be a part of that). Both your numbers and mine would be a bit more off because of this. So my $60M-$80M estimate could be off a bit, my apologies. I'd amend that to $40M-$50M.

Thus I labor to prove a point that I've known for over a decade now, Forbes values have a tendency to be off. This doesn't really come as a shock if you've paid attention to their work for a while. They don't have all the info necessary to make such valuations, they're not the end result. They do the best they can with the info they have. I respect the work they do and they are an excellent tool to be able to use. But it seems like a very enormous reach to take what they give and use it as a benchmark to prove a point. There's always some info missing, so you have to factor that in.

But I can't be surprised. The pattern repeats itself here; if a certain news-clip, sound-byte, etc. echoes someone's view, they often use it as a club. Not willing or wanting to look and see how accurate it may be or how additional information not initially included can change the gist of it. Since I not on one side or the other and don't give a damn who should "win" this battle, I always look on both sides of the fence. Very different view.

cws is offline