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02-11-2010, 03:58 PM
  #395
Ohashi_Jouzu
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Teufelsdreck View Post
You're choosing a best case (or worst case) scenario. There's a night-and-day difference between the Caps and the Leafs. The Habs are competing with teams that are roughly on the same level as themselves--barely above .500. Do you expect the Lightning, Panthers, Thrashers, Bruins, Rangers, Islanders, Flyers all to go on an extended winning streak at the same time? The only one of those teams capable of breaking away from the pack would be the Flyers. Besides--and this is very important--these competing teams will be playing many if not most of their remaining games against each other. By definition, they all can't win all of their games. They'll also have games remaining against teams with much better records, so they'd have to start emulating what the Habs did against the Caps last night.
Yeah, that's right: their win percentage, and thus our expectations of how they'll finish off the rest of their respective schedules. Sure, the closer teams are bunched up, the dicier it gets. But the other guy originally posted that being in 6th place right now means relatively little if the Habs only rank 9th in the percentage of points they've taken along the way... and he's right (to an extent). If, at any time, you look at teams with games in hand and you wonder which ones are the biggest threats to overtake, you hopefully logically conclude the team with the best record (i.e. points percentage).

In any event, I don't think about it too hard because there's a website that does all the hard thinking for me. And it shows that, despite being in 6th place right now, the Habs currently only have the 8th best statistical chance (less than 2% above the Bruins in "9th place") at making the playoffs in the Eastern conference (and that's factoring in that the competing teams play some of the remaining games against each other, like you mentioned above). So obviously buddy wasn't far off the mark, and others' criticism of his point was somewhat unfounded.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Teufelsdreck View Post
You don't think Halak gives up worse rebounds than Price? And how about Price's long, accurate clearing passes to center ice? I have haven't seen many like that from Halak.
And how about his short accurate pass right onto Ovechkin's stick last night? I haven't seen many like that from Halak either. But again, rebounds aren't "worse" until they start ending up in the back of the net more often than a "competing" goalie fails to stop the initial shots. I'd say that MAYBE Halak lets in no more than 1 goal off a "bad" rebound every three games or so, and that's about the same difference in their GAA right now (Jaro's 2.45 to Carey's 2.79, or 1/3 GPG), so it's a wash.


Last edited by Ohashi_Jouzu: 02-11-2010 at 04:06 PM.
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