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02-19-2010, 11:17 AM
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Originally Posted by FlyHigh View Post
Yeah, but Hamels still had 32 starts and 193 innings last year.
...of well below the level he pitched at the year before. +1.33 ERA (career high), +.59 BABIP (career high), +.204 WHIP (career high), +.098 OPS (career high)...

I also dislike how statisticians dismiss BABIP numbers as pure "luck" because there's a lot more going on there. That is one of the softest statistics out there. BABIP on a fastball down the middle is going to be higher than a fastball on the hands.

Sure he doesn't go deep, but that basic point about the non-Verducci pitchers seems to degrade the Verducci theory IMO.
That's just it...I think the non-Verducci players stats look completely screwed up. The comparative years (2 and 3) are goofy...the 2nd year for the non-Verducci group have an attrition rate that looks like something from a WWI front-line company.

I personally think that Hamels A) probably did take longer to recover from a heavy workload and B) maybe didn't condition himself as thoroughly in the offseason as he had in years past.

I'm not really too upset about this, as far as I'm concerned, those guys on the 2008 team earned a hell of a lot of slack.
I think Hamels is fragile, and last year was completely predictable given his workload the year before.

I agree with one of the commenters on that article I found, I think the Verducci theory is an interesting idea that for some reason has become accepted as gospel truth despite a paucity of evidence really supporting it.
Largely because Verducci has been given credit for something he got from baseball people...Verducci didn't "come up" with the Verducci effect, he borrowed it from baseball people. Rick Peterson, in particular, who is one of the folks in baseball that has done a TON of research into pitching mechanics and physiology (he's been involved with James Andrews in figuring out arm fatigue/risk factors).

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