Thread: Injury Report: Bernier out 4-6 weeks
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03-11-2010, 11:29 PM
  #34
Lard_Lad
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roddy View Post
If you look at Bernier's spot on the depth chart he is a third liner but if you compare his scoring over the last couple of years (and to January 9th of this year) he is producing at a top six pace. There are only a handful of players in the league who get Bernier's ice time and outproduce him. There are however, a ******** of players Bernier outproduces while getting less ice time.
This doesn't appear to be true. Bernier had 18 points in 39 games prior to January and has averaged 14:24 in ice time this season, probably a bit more prior to the injury. Assuming it was around 15 minutes, I found 20 guys with better points-per-game than Bernier but fewer minutes, and 27 with more ice time but fewer ppg.

The thing is, the latter list is very heavy with checking forwards like Madden, McClement, Grier, Halpern, etc. If you remove those guys, who get their icetime because of their defensive play, the list is reduced by half or more.

And if you look at a statistic like GVT (http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=233) that attempts to measure overall contribution, Bernier is in the bottom half of the group with icetime similar to his - 15th out of 23 guys with 14:24-15:00 minutes per game.

In short, there doesn't seem to be much statistical evidence that Bernier has been a particularly good third-line producer, even prior to the injury. And his first-half points pace was slightly better than the previous two seasons.

(Funny coincidence: the guy that seems to be the most similar in the league to Bernier this season in terms of ice time, production, age, and cap hit is Drew Stafford - who's also out indefinitely with a groin injury.)

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