Thread: Speculation: Pavelski's contract equivalent ?
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03-19-2010, 07:11 PM
Lost Art of Dynasty
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Do you know that contracts are done by comparables, even those not submitted to arbitration?

Clowe is a power forward type. He would be compared to Bernier and Backes on one end and Franzen on the other. Pavs is a second line (smallish) center. There are several of us here like O2G, Matt Trick, et al who use players who are very likely to be brought up in negotiation. Transcripts of arbitrations have been available as well as reports of negotiations to see exactly how it is done. It was really fun to see that the group of us picked off some guys who were exactly the guys used in those negotiations.
Arbitration transcripts notwithstanding, power forward or small center are simply sub categories. For top six forwards, the bottom line comparable is offensive production. Next is the level of free agency (ie, RFA, UFA), after that could be age. All other attributes (power forward, small center, playmaking center, sniper, etc) just help define the final number that much more but only if a properly comparable player can be found (which by now one usually can be found).

To illustrate this point, I'll use an extreme example: if a UFA "small center" scored 120 points the season of his pending free agency, his agent will not be using the next smallish forward as his comparable if he can only find one that was an RFA, who was scoring at a 60 point pace when he signed his deal. The agent will attempt to use whomever has scored 120 points as his comparable, even if that player is a power forward.

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