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04-08-2010, 10:34 PM
  #277
sarcastro
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jaster View Post
Most of those 18 games before Lilja came back was with the full complement of PKers, so I don't buy this line of thinking as being meaningful.

A statement was made that Lilja does not make the PK any better. Not one bit. I am simply showing that that is patently false. Lilja's a good PKer and he helps the PK. Do you disagree?

I missed the graphic last night, but let's look at this more closely. With Lilja in the lineup (18 games), the Wings PK is 89.6%. In the 18 games prior to Lilja's return, the Wings PK was 84.5%, a difference of 5.1%. Seems like a difference to me.

And besides the numbers, any casual observer can see how well Lilja plays the PK. A big body who takes away space down low and blocks more shots than anyone else.... are there really 4 defensemen on the Wings you'd rather have on the PK than Lilja? Before you answer, some numbers....

In 118 SH minutes, Ericsson has seen 15 goals against.

In 91 SH minutes, Kronwall has seen 9 goals against.

In 32 SH minutes, Lilja has seen 1 goal against.
Cute revisionist history work with the sample size.

When Lilja came back the PK was red-hot. 23/24 the previous 8 games. Games 9 and 10 going back were not great, and there were 2 PPG against in each game. Then again, the 9th game before Lilja came back the Wings were in fact missing their best PKer as Osgood was in the net.

Going back over 3 weeks, past those 8 games does not accurately reflect the state of the PK at the time Lilja returned.

Let's look at another cute sample size:

Lilja's last 4 games he's a -5 and the PK 6 for 9. They have not been shorthanded a lot lately, which puts Lilja on the ice for more 5 on 5. Lo and behold, the Wings are giving up more goals and Lilja is piling up minuses.

Refresh my memory, do penalties increase in quantity during the playoffs, or decrease?

Then there's this:

Lebda: 36ESga 928.75ESmin 25.8 ESmin/ga
Lilja: 11ESga 221.33ESmin 20.1 ESmin/ga

12 ESmin/game * 24 playoff games = 288 ES min at stake in the playoffs

288/25.8=11.16ga (keeping in mind that Lebda was only on for 5 ESg in the 09 playoffs, indicating his defense gets better in the playoffs)
288/20.1=14.33ga (keeping in mind that Lilja hasn't played a game at playoff speed and intensity since 08)

If you carry their ES goals against per minute over to the playoffs and you figure either would play roughly 12 minutes a night at even strength, Lilja costs the Wings 3+ goals at even strength. The Wings are capable of killing penalties at least as well as they have with Lilja - they have proven that. Could those extra 3+ goals cost them a series? Damn right they could.

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