Quote:
Originally Posted by habtastic
ok, just for the sake of academic discussion, which is appreciated,
a team winning by two goals is synonymous with winning in regulation and so on, in that way of calculating those 4 possibilities which are the only scenarios that matter (i.e. have a seperate meaning). FTM Philly winning includes in OT, so 25+25 = 50% chance of winning. A team winning by two goals has it's own probability. Far more complex one, sort of what I had referred to.

The problem is by this method you can keep breaking it down through interpretation. Originally there are only two possibilities: philly winning and rangers winning, 50% each. This I agree with. But when you ask for the probability of rangers winning in OT it gets broken down into more possibilities. You said you saw it as 25% that rangers win in OT so you see it as four possibilities at this point: philly winning in OT, philly winning in reg, rangers winning in OT, rangers winning in reg. But when you actually look at the conditions of those possibilities you see this is not the case. The condition of winning in OT is to have equal goals after regulation. In this way by saying a team winning by two goals is synonymous with winning in regulation, you are saying its synonymous with winning in OT. So there are only two possibilities.
In the end the result is they have a 50% chance of winning which you said, but the percentages can't be split 2525 for it being in OT or Regulation.