HOH Top 70 Players of All Time (2009)
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04-10-2010, 05:59 PM
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Regina, SK
Originally Posted by
The difference in shots isn't nearly that great due to arena bias. I'll try to estimate the effect. To do a real calculation would take more time than I feel like spending. Since the NJ effect has been shown to be real by comparing home and away shooting percentage, I'll use it. I'll ignore any possible effect from Buffalo, since the bias there hasn't been confirmed as actual bias. So if anything this estimate will still be unfavorable to Brodeur.
Assuming 2.5 shots per game of arena bias, multiplied by about 35 home games for Brodeur per year multiplied by 7 years (plus 2.5 times 20 estimated home games during the lockout year), we get a bias against Brodeur of about 660 shots.
So a more realistic estimate would be that Hasek allowed 135 goals less than Brodeur, while facing approximately 400 more shots. This assumes there is no shot bias in Buffalo and only takes into account the bias in NJ. This is also an estimate, a better estimate would use year by year numbers.
This statement also ignores 2 further facts:
1) Brodeur's puckhandling itself reduces shots against slightly. This needs to be taken into account further, and likely can be (though I don't feel like doing it).
2) You are comparing Hasek's prime to the first half of Brodeur's career, most of which was not during Brodeur's prime. There is a 7 year age difference between the two.
- Regardless, Brodeur was considered one of the best goalies in the league and Hasek's statistical dominance of him during that period is frequently used as an illustration of his overall dominance.
- As for the shot bias, that's a different conversation altogether; my post was in response to the "fewer games" excuse which was irrelevant. (apparently the shot bias really began in 2001-02 anyway)
- This is really nitpicky and not the conversation I want to get into right now, but any effects of puckhandling can be entirely outweighed, and then some, by "shot quality due to abundance or lack of PK situations" estimates.
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