Thread: Post-Game Talk: So...you still wanna fire Homer?
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04-23-2010, 10:48 PM
  #25
Jester
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyHigh View Post
I've actually been thinking about this a little bit recently. Without a doubt Knuble was a lot more valuable than I thought he was, can't deny it.

However, we scored 232 goals this year as opposed to 260 in 08-09.

From that 08-09 roster, we essentially lost 52 goals in Lupul and Knuble although 10 of those were directly offset with Pronger coming back our way.

But then with 09-10, you have to consider a couple things.

- Hartnell's baffling drop in production. We have our differing opinions, but I think 25 goals would have been a reasonable expectation, 11 more than what he produced.

- Carter's drop/injury, I think 40 was a reasonable expectation and he had an outside shot at hitting it, but he only hit 33, so 7 short of what could be expected.

- Briere and Gagne combined for 45 goals last year. Considering those are both 30 goal guys normally, I think 60 would have been a reasonable expectation.

So going into the season, from those 4 players, I think 115 goals would have been a reasonable expectation (injuries, guys slumping, etc. playing a factor).

Instead, we got 87 out of them. Coincidentally, that gap between actual production and reasonable expectation is 28 goals, the exact gap between this year's production and last year's.

I mean, going into the year, expecting full seasons from Giroux, JVR, and Briere/Gagne, it may not have been unreasonable to not resign Knuble especially since it allowed us to grab Lappy and Betts whose contribution has really gone beyond the scoresheet, having that 4th line has been a huge asset all season and especially in the playoffs.

So with all those factors, I do begin to think that Lappy/Betts for Knuble may have been a defensible tradeoff at the start of the year although we certainly missed Mike.
I think you probably have Betts either way... what irks me is that it's really a "do something about Randy Jones" situation, and not signing Lappy...and there's Knuble on this roster.

Lappy is certainly a good addition independent of that, but I would prefer Knuble for this season and next.

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