Thread: Speculation: Which Big Salaried Forward Goes?
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05-04-2010, 02:09 PM
matt trick
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What I would do:


Pavelski- 4.5 cap hit, whatever number of years it takes (2, 3, 4, 10 don't care). He took an insanely low deal before, maybe he will be kind to us again. The kid wants to win, and if it meant keeping Marleau around, he probably take less.

Setoguchi- 2.75. He has been quite good in the playoffs, but a rough regular season and no-arbitration could mean a short term cheap cap hit. If you want more than 2 years, think 3.5-4.5 range.
Nichol- small raise, should be back. If he wants more than 850 or 900k let him walk, even if he may deserve. A cap constrained team has to save somewhere, and the bottom 6 and bottom pairing is where it will be.

Ortmeyer- perfectly fine in a fourth line role, but McLaren, Zalewski,
Ferrerio, and a host of UFAs can fill the role. I can about who can best fill it, but who can do so cheaply is equally important. If he'll take 500-600k go for it, otherwise find someone who will.

Malhorta- bring him back- he is capable in a top 6 role, making for a difficult match up for many teams. Like Nichol, his effort and face-off prowess are contagious. Unlike Nichol, his offensive ability, double his value. Offer multi-years at 1.5 if he'll take it. He can get more but he turned down a deal worth 8 million to come hear before. With Couture, Pavelski, and Thornton he is a luxury, but it is a hell of a luxury to have.

Blake- bring him back. He is a shell of himself, but he is still a top 4 d-man. He is worth 3-3.5, but I think it is reasonable for him to take a discount. I expect 2 million, but it really needs to be 1.5. I think that is fair given his previous wages. I think his value extends well outside his on-ice abilities.

Acquire top 6 forward:
Marleau- We will not be able to sign a replacement of his caliber. Plekanec, Kovalchuk, and Frolov (most likely) aren't coming here. Are we okay with McGinn, Couture, Malhorta, ? Are we willing to give up assets for a solid top 6 who is overpaid, injury prone, or old, like Ryder, Sturm, or Brunnette? We won't be able to an acquire a great player without giving up one of our young assets. Petrecki, 1st, and Doug Murray isn't bringing us St. Louis or Morrow (the two guys I think that have the qualities that provide an upgrade on Marleau, that could maybe be available). Will this player have chemistry with Thornton, Heatley, Pavelski, and Setoguchi? Will he be an elite penalty killer? Replacing Marleau is hard, if not impossible with one player. It absolutely will not come from free agency. If he leaves, I target Patrick Sharp, and if I were Chicago, I would trade him to 27 other teams first (Detroit and Pitt being the two to avoid). We would need an increase in efforts across the board if we don't sign him. Personally, as long as he wants to be here (which I admit could be in question), we must keep him. If it is in the 5-6.5 mill range it is worth it.

-If Marleau goes: Nabby stays, top 6 forward, and a top 4 d-man are brought it.
-If he stays: Nabby goes, and we don't get a top 4 replacement. And we may very well need to move Huskins, Mitchell, Clowe or Murray, if not two or even three of them.

I think a replacement goalie will be easy enough to find, but if the cap room is their, Nabby is easily the best goalie option and has been great, but I see him as the least important of the free agents.

However, it is all mute until after the playoffs are complete.

Keep up:
McGinn and Couture.
Last spot: Ortmeyer, Staubitz, Ortmeyer, McLaren, or Ferrerio.

Last edited by matt trick: 05-04-2010 at 02:15 PM.
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