Thread: Speculation: Which Big Salaried Forward Goes?
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05-04-2010, 04:20 PM
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Originally Posted by param View Post
You realize when Zetterberg broke out into elite status in 05-06 he went 39 goals (05-06) - 33 goals (06-07) - 43 goals (07-08) - 31 goals (08-09). This past season was his first non-30 goal year since 03-04.

Kopitar has had two 30 goal years in four seasons, squeezing in a 27 goal (I suppose 3 goals makes ALL the difference) season in between.

Kane and Toews also fill the roles as playmakers on the team, we don't expect that from Seto. His job would be to get open or stay in front of the net.

Datsyuk, here's how his last 5 season follow: 30 goals (03-04) - 28 goals (04-05) - 27 goals (05-06) - 31 goals (06-07) - 32 goals (07-08) - 27 goals (08-09). Again like Zetterberg, Kane, Kopitar, and Toews, Datsyuk is heavily relied on to create plays. And again, that's something we don't expect from Setoguchi.

Fine I'll back track a little and say Setoguchi won't score 30, but realistically if Marleau doesn't come back obviously Setoguchi will get better ice time. So 25 goals is not out of the realm of possibilities. Imagine if our goal production this season dropped from 44 (that of Marleau) to 25 (that of Seto), so by 20 goals. Now look at the top eight in the Western Conference standings. San Jose's goals for (264) minus 20 = 244. Aside from Chicago and Vancouver the other five teams had 244 or less and made it into the playoffs. Everybody likes to use Detroit as the golden example right? 229!
All changes to the lineup have the potential to make changes in goals for or goals against. Usually the best measure is goal differential rather than straight goals for. Not an argument about Patty/Seto, just to get to the point that is more accurate.

Detroit was a special case as their coach assumed that they wouldn't be as effective offensively and had them play with a more defensive posture as a team. It not only knocked down their goals for, it knocked down their differential. I don't particularly care for the choice by Babcock for their team as I view teams as more competitive when the coach puts a little more faith in the players.

One oversight on your part is that Seto may come close to supplanting Patty's numbers, but then who replaces Seto's numbers, etc. It's a cascade effect and you take little hits down through the lines as a slightly less effective player moves up a spot.

Just some more info for the debate regarding PK:

Please look at the +-ON/60 column, about the same as last year for Patty and Pavs. Patty was #16 in the league this year, Pavs just below #20 . . . and then you have Malhotra who was waaaayyyy down the scale, with worse numbers than Grier's last year.

The above is an issue of goal differential.

Last edited by SJeasy: 05-04-2010 at 04:26 PM.
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