Thread: Speculation: Which Big Salaried Forward Goes?
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05-04-2010, 04:21 PM
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Originally Posted by param View Post
You realize when Zetterberg broke out into elite status in 05-06 he went 39 goals (05-06) - 33 goals (06-07) - 43 goals (07-08) - 31 goals (08-09). This past season was his first non-30 goal year since 03-04.

Kopitar has had two 30 goal years in four seasons, squeezing in a 27 goal (I suppose 3 goals makes ALL the difference) season in between.

Kane and Toews also fill the roles as playmakers on the team, we don't expect that from Seto. His job would be to get open or stay in front of the net.

Datsyuk, here's how his last 5 season follow: 30 goals (03-04) - 28 goals (04-05) - 27 goals (05-06) - 31 goals (06-07) - 32 goals (07-08) - 27 goals (08-09). Again like Zetterberg, Kane, Kopitar, and Toews, Datsyuk is heavily relied on to create plays. And again, that's something we don't expect from Setoguchi.

Fine I'll back track a little and say Setoguchi won't score 30, but realistically if Marleau doesn't come back obviously Setoguchi will get better ice time. So 25 goals is not out of the realm of possibilities. Imagine if our goal production this season dropped from 44 (that of Marleau) to 25 (that of Seto), so by 20 goals. Now look at the top eight in the Western Conference standings. San Jose's goals for (264) minus 20 = 244. Aside from Chicago and Vancouver the other five teams had 244 or less and made it into the playoffs. Everybody likes to use Detroit as the golden example right? 229!
My point in bringing those players up was to emphasize that 30+ goals is a hell of a lot, and puts you in an elite tier. I think you got that point... as for the production drop of 20, I think you're proving my point there, too. Sure, we'll still make the playoffs, but you go from being the top goalscoring team in the conference to being "in the top half".

And that's just assuming that this is a straight substitution. What you really have it a waterfall effect - setoguchi replaces marleau as a lower scorer, and someone else (Couture?) has to replace Setoguchi's totals. Net effect of weakening more than one line. We'd probably see another 5-10 goals come off just from that effect.

Point being - Marleau would be a huge loss. We might have to take it on the chin, but I won't be happy. It will suck. "Damn it Marleau, why couldn't you step up in the playoffs? You played your way out of here." OR, "Damn it, this cap situation sucks and I'm sad to see him go." All depends on the next 2 months.

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