Thread: Speculation: Which Big Salaried Forward Goes?
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05-04-2010, 05:35 PM
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Originally Posted by coooldude View Post
My point in bringing those players up was to emphasize that 30+ goals is a hell of a lot, and puts you in an elite tier. I think you got that point... as for the production drop of 20, I think you're proving my point there, too. Sure, we'll still make the playoffs, but you go from being the top goalscoring team in the conference to being "in the top half".

And that's just assuming that this is a straight substitution. What you really have it a waterfall effect - setoguchi replaces marleau as a lower scorer, and someone else (Couture?) has to replace Setoguchi's totals. Net effect of weakening more than one line. We'd probably see another 5-10 goals come off just from that effect.

Point being - Marleau would be a huge loss. We might have to take it on the chin, but I won't be happy. It will suck. "Damn it Marleau, why couldn't you step up in the playoffs? You played your way out of here." OR, "Damn it, this cap situation sucks and I'm sad to see him go." All depends on the next 2 months.
If you think playing Couture more will weaken this team you need to watch more hockey. He is ready.

As for Marleau he's a 30-35 goal scorer with 1 or 2 40+ goal years in him, and he's used up one of those years. How do you know he won't mail it in and give us 19 goals? Think about it career year in a contract year? We should have traded him when he tanked under Ron Wilson. Also if we resign him he'll get a NMC/NTC what will we do with him when he tanks? Marleau is a good player only in someone else's shadow (Thornton's) and not much better than Seto or Pavs, I'll take those two over him any day.

With Marleau gone we'll lose 44 goals,
-44 - Marleau is gone
-34 - (44-10) - (+10) Seto gives us 30 goals (he can do more)
-23 - (34-11) - (+11) Couture plays the entire season and scores the same number as this season, just over an entire year
-19 - (23-4) - (+4) McGinn plays the entire season and scores the same number as this season, just over an entire year

Without making any changes we lose 19 goals, but keep in mind that Pavs, Clowe, Heatley, Thornton all scored less goals this year than expected / previous years AND this year was a career year for Marleau and you won't know if he'll score this many again ever.

If we lose 19 goals and Thornton, Heatley, Clowe, Pavs all are able to chip in 5 goals each (which is a very reasonable expectation if you look at their history / injury problems this year), you have more goals than this year.

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